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16NL 6-Max 200bb Boat

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16NL 6-Max 200bb Boat - Tue Feb 26, 2013, 03:55 AM
(#1)
TheAwesomeNW's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 474
Villain's 49/1 over 194 hands. AF: 2.7. Flop FCB: 50%(6), Flop Donkbet: 90%(30), Donkbet-fold: 29%(17), Turn Donkbet: 43%(14)

Previously had him UTG limp-calling my PFR w JJ. I cbet 3 streets IP all-in as overpair with 99 and he won



So we flopped the nuts. I slowplayed because I didn't want to fold out worse hands. Hopefully he can improve by the Turn and give me at least 1 street of value.

The argument against this will be since we got the nuts we should build up the pot immediately. Extract value from any draws and Aces. This should be the better choice.

River was the difficult spot. Haven't encountered him overbetting before so I'm sure he's got a big hand. Can be a rivered flush, TT, AQ or AT. We're a favourite against this range.

Question is will AQ and AT take the line he took?? At 100bb I've no problem raising and going all-in. Here are we comfortable going broke with the 3rd nuts at 200bb?

Last edited by TheAwesomeNW; Tue Feb 26, 2013 at 04:05 AM..
 
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Tue Feb 26, 2013, 04:49 AM
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PSO-xflixx's Avatar
Since: Jun 2011
Posts: 1,119
(Live Trainer)
I think with those stacksizes, boardtexture allowing for a lot of better hands and his betting line we have enough room to make a small raise and still fold to a shove.

I'd make it something like $8,80 and expect to get called by backdoorflushes/Ax while only getting jammed on by better boats.


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Tue Feb 26, 2013, 11:20 PM
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TheAwesomeNW's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 474
Thanks Felix. That was what I was considering too. Had a feeling that he will overvalue flushes and lower boat. Putting me in a very difficult spot if he reraises.

I chose to flat this hand, he flipped over TT. Possible he'll reraise with this hand and put us in a tough spot?
 
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Thu Feb 28, 2013, 07:48 PM
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nanonoko's Avatar
nanonoko
(nanonoko)
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 350
Supernova
I would definitely raise here for value. I think you are letting him off the hook too easily if he rivered a flush here which is a likely scenario. Yeah sometimes he'll put you in a tough spot but if you think he will call your raise w/ a flush then you have to do it to maximize value. If he is the type to overvalue his hand and repop, then that's going to be a judgment call on your end based on your reads. small thing to consider is that he might reraise AQ PF (not sure) so you can discount that a bit too.
 
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Thu Feb 28, 2013, 11:51 PM
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TheAwesomeNW's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 474
Randy, I agree we let him off the hook with worse hands. Think that combinatorically, flushes, TT, AT, plus if we discount AQ a bit, we're most probably ahead. Even still, didn't know what to do if he repops, only had read on him as a passive player who limped JJ UTG. Tough!!
 
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Fri Mar 01, 2013, 04:29 AM
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PSO-xflixx's Avatar
Since: Jun 2011
Posts: 1,119
(Live Trainer)
Great to have nano chime in and comment on all the hands!


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Tue Mar 05, 2013, 10:02 PM
(#7)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheAwesomeNW View Post
Flop Donkbet: 90%(30)

Previously had him UTG limp-calling my PFR w JJ. I cbet 3 streets IP all-in as overpair with 99 and he won
Oh ... now that I know what those brackets mean (thanks to Dave ), maybe the following is a 'tell'?

If the villain donks out 90% of the time, and people only connect with the board about 33% of the time, doesn't that means he's donking out over 50% of the time with complete air? Which makes you wonder when it is that he's NOT donking out?

A guess might be that he's not donking out when he thinks he's strong - which seems like that might have been the reason he didn't donk out with the JJ?

So maybe that might have been another little sign that it was less likely he had AQ or AT? Maybe?

PS Hi Randy!!

Last edited by TrustySam; Tue Mar 05, 2013 at 10:04 PM..
 

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