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How nitty is this nit? Should I fold KK??

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How nitty is this nit? Should I fold KK?? - Fri Mar 01, 2013, 03:38 PM
(#1)
EdinFreeMan's Avatar
Since: Feb 2010
Posts: 4,540
OK heres the start of the hand...



(No MTTs today - other than Privilege Freerolls and a UKIPT satty.)

I played very little cash poker last month so thought I would try a session of 2NL.

Then I realised we are back in a Milestone Promotion.

The villain (V8) who raises 4x over a limper and then 4-bets me here was the nittiest player at the table, twice as nitty as me - my stats were about 11/10 over 75 hands at this table, theirs were 5/4 as we reached this hand (they opened up and played a few more pots after this).

They were on 6 x 2NL tables and one thought was that they might just be nitting up and hoping to get dealt into a milestone hand. I was pretty sure they were paying attention though, and a good chance they were using a hud - so my 3-bet would look pretty strong to them, while the other player to my left (V4) was a loose passive fishy type, happily calling here for 1/3 stack to nitty players!

Is this enough of a read to ever lay down Kings when they 4-bet shove a decent size stack?



Ed from Edinburgh - EdinFreeMan

Last edited by EdinFreeMan; Fri Mar 01, 2013 at 03:51 PM..
 
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Fri Mar 01, 2013, 05:05 PM
(#2)
RockerguyAA's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,089
BronzeStar
It is close for sure. The main issue in my mind is whether or not villain includes AKo and AKs in his 4-bet range. If you have not seen villain get it in preflop either AKo or AKs then it may actually be best to assume AKo is not in his range and fold.

KK:

16% vs KK, AA
http://www.pokerschoolonline.com/art...c?sitId=175990

27% vs AKs, KK, AA
http://www.pokerschoolonline.com/art...c?sitId=175989

44% vs AKo, AKs, KK, AA
http://www.pokerschoolonline.com/art...c?sitId=175988

It is very likely his range tightens up when he 4-bet shoves so I would not assume he is shoving with a 4% range. I would think 1%-2% is more likely what you will run into, which basically includes the above hands only. QQ is technically in a 2.5% range, but I expect someone so tight to flat with QQ here and at least hope for no A or K on the flop before putting more money in.
 
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Fri Mar 01, 2013, 08:06 PM
(#3)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,512
(Head Trainer)
Hi Ed,

As I was reading your breakdown of the hand I was at first thinking yes, this sounds like it could be one of those very rare cases to lay the kings down preflop. But after watching it I think it's not due to the presence of the other players. V8 can be opening hands like TT+ and AQ+ very easily here to isolate the short stacked fish limper. Then V4 cold calls .30c with what is probably a garbage hand like ATs or 33, and if V8 is paying attention as you note, I could easily see him shoving a big wider range to isolate, JJ+ AK makes sense I think. If you two were heads up he might not shove this wide but the presense of the 46bb huge fish changes the dynamic. And he knows he's putting a ton of pressure on you, it's hard for you to call without AA or KK and especially if he's got blockers (AK) I could see him opening up the clip here.

Interesting you think he's running a HUD, curious why you say that? I would assume most 2nl players are not, unless they give it away somehow (like berating a loose fish in chat with "57% keep calling fish" or some such thing).


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Sat Mar 02, 2013, 12:07 AM
(#4)
TheAwesomeNW's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 474
Hi Ed! 5/4 over a small sample just means he's tight. Also, possibly didn't have a good run of cards for the first 75 hands. His stats will increase after another 100+ so hands. Doesn't really tell us much about his 4-bet shoving range. I'm inclined to call here. Most players with AA will opt to 4-bet to a reasonable amount and not shove, to keep other players in the pot. Why will he want to fold out action here?

His entire shoving range consists of QQ+, AKs, AKo. Once in a while you'll run into AA. But after all this is the micros of the micros, I feel that it's a profitable call, mistake to fold KK. Just my thoughts
 
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Sat Mar 02, 2013, 12:11 AM
(#5)
nanonoko's Avatar
nanonoko
(nanonoko)
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 350
Supernova
i don't think you should be folding here, especially when someone flats your 3b which adds extra dead money to the pot. If he's going to ever shove QQ+ AK, you have to call even if you run into aces some time.
 
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Sat Mar 02, 2013, 10:11 AM
(#6)
EdinFreeMan's Avatar
Since: Feb 2010
Posts: 4,540
Wow - thanks for the great replies -

Rockerguy - cheers - numbers are not my strong point, but I ran some after, confused myself by saying I had blockers to KK and AKs/AKo so should I adjust? Maybe more likely they do have QQ or even AQ then, but surely they wouldn't play AQ this way.

So numbers still left me not quite fathoming this.

AwesomeNW - you make some good points, and looks like the big guns agree with your analysis

So Dave Roemer and Randy Lew, phew thats some good place to get advice from.

Great that somebody who is a PSO Legend will take time to give their thoughts - so from an old timer to one of the young stars of PSO thanks very much to The Langolier

And to the even younger even more superstar that is nanonoko, honoured to have your input.

So...

This niggled me because at the time I thought I did right but very soon after thought I did wrong, then decided my decision had been OK, then that it was bad - couldn't decide.

So here is the outcome.



Imagine my immediate thoughts - 'YES! - I KNEW IT! I made a GENIUS lay down!'.... then the doubts crept in, next morning I thought I must have dreamt that I passed up my cowboys - then I checked and ran numbers and could not stop thinking about it

OK - for a couple of dollars - but I am convinced now this was a bad decision with a good result - and I would prefer to err the other way round.

Thanks again for all contributions, and good luck at the tables this weekend, whether you are a superstar or not - if nanonoko is playing the 7M lets hope some of us from PSO are at the FT with him (with sympathy for Lango and other USA contingent)

Cheers



Ed from Edinburgh - EdinFreeMan

Last edited by EdinFreeMan; Sat Mar 02, 2013 at 10:20 AM..
 
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Sat Mar 02, 2013, 01:29 PM
(#7)
RockerguyAA's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,089
BronzeStar
It is seriously borderline insane that we can post hands on the PSO and have them reviewed by Dave, xflixx, and others for free.

Also, just wanted to say very exciting to see Nanonoko hitting up the PSO a lot last couple days.
 

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