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99 vs Super loose calling station

99 vs Super loose calling station - Fri Mar 01, 2013, 03:40 PM
s3n_dan's Avatar
Since: Jul 2012
Posts: 58
I didnt feel sorry for losing this hand but would you rather call the flop to see how is the action on the turn ?

Villain was calling like 95% of the hands and raise sometimes 6 -8 blinds preflop , unfortunately nobody called his raises preflop.
His bet on the flop was begging for me to fold and i was sure he didnt have sets or overpairs and it looked more like overcards (AK, AQ, AJ), i decided to raise all in and was sure i was ahead , he called as expected getting lucky on the river
Later on pokerstove i checked the odds and on this flop i was with 74,5% against his 25,5 %(3:1).

Tbh i dont like calling here and a reraise for sure keeps this kamikaze on the board no matter how i bet. I decided to put all the money in. Is this a + EV play cause i dont feel having fold equity at all?

Last edited by s3n_dan; Fri Mar 01, 2013 at 03:41 PM.. Reason: wrong hand
Fri Mar 01, 2013, 08:13 PM
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,501
(Head Trainer)
Hi dan,

Personally I think this play is not +EV. I would expect to get shown a ten or overpair a great deal of the time when called on the shove... meaning a large portion of your results will be winning a small pot or losing your stack.

Now obviously, if he could show you AK high and said "I call you if you shove", then shoving would be hugely +EV. If the guy is constantly calling off in 200bb pots with air then by all means shove... it's high variance but should be profitable. But I think discounting him completely from having a bigger pair than you, AND being willing to call off with air for stacks, is quite optimistic.

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