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16NL 6-Max Overpair Wet Board

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16NL 6-Max Overpair Wet Board - Sun Mar 03, 2013, 01:09 AM
(#1)
TheAwesomeNW's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 474
Villain's 20/14, AF:2.6 over 1.7k hands. F3B:10%(21), UTG F3B: 0%(3), 4bet: 25%(20), UTG 4bet: 67%(3)
Flop FCB: 64%(47), Flop FCB(3bet pot): 50%(12). Flop raise CB: 17%(46), Flop raise CB(3bet pot): 42%(12)




I don't know what to make of it when he just shoved the Flop. Note that he has a low F3B%, high raise CB (3bet pot). It really felt like he's shipping a draw here. Can't see how QQ, TT, 99, KJ will just ship here to fold out worse hands. Wouldn't he have just raised it to maybe $6 or $8?

When we put a range of draws, TPTK, sets and the nuts here, { QQ-99, AQs, KJs, QJs, AQo, KJo, QJo } we're an underdog of 37% OTF. I excluded QT, Q9 and T9 as he opened UTG.
If we exclude TPTK AQ, we're 30.5% underdog. Pot odds we're getting to call is 1:1.5 which is 40%.

Based on his aggressive stats on 3bet pots, plus he just shoved the Flop, is it safe to assume he has more draws in his range here? Nuts and sets are unlikely to do so. How profitable is calling here against this Villain type??
 
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Sun Mar 03, 2013, 09:53 AM
(#2)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,510
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Hi Awesome,

When evaluating how likely a draw is, first evaluate what the reasonable draws are for him to hold. It's a key here because the preflop action as it was, I would expect him to have a lot of middle/big pocket pairs and big aces. So in terms of draws, it seems very hard for him to have a flush draw with both the ace and queen of hearts on the board. Therefore I would assume most draws in his range include a J. AJ seems like an optmistic raise/call pre by the villain (although when he gets 3b he doesn't like to fold) and JJ seems like an optimistic semi-bluff given how strong your range should be on this board texture. You forgot to include KK in your equity run for some reason, but I think that's about our best case scenario here.

I think it's easy to say the board is wet, this reaks of draw, call... that's what a lot of people do. It might be reasonable if we didn't hold the Ah, but with the A and Q gone that removes all his flush draws save for the occassional smaller suited connector.

I would fold here... I think we're getting shown a set way too often.

As an aside, personally I would shove a set in villains shoes. The board is wet and I know I'll get put on draws a lot, and your range looks very strong here so I expect you to call off to my shove, not fold.


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Sun Mar 03, 2013, 02:56 PM
(#3)
RockerguyAA's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,089
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I think it would be a good idea to remove KJo and QJo from villains range. Considering information given I doubt that type of player is flatting those hands vs a 3-bet even in position.
 
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Sun Mar 03, 2013, 11:29 PM
(#4)
TheAwesomeNW's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 474
Thanks guys. I found the Fold BTN this hand so we never got to know what he had. Yea I agree that since we held Ah, it removes more flush draws from his range. Rocker yup we should remove KJo and QJo. As for KJs and QJs it's close cos he's 20/14 and not 15/10, so they may be part of his UTG range

Thing was that he had such a low F3B%, high raise CB%(3bet pot) which made my fold uneasy. Glad it's the right decision here.
 
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Mon Mar 04, 2013, 08:40 AM
(#5)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,510
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheAwesomeNW View Post
cos he's 20/14 and not 15/10,
You're using generic PFR, what is his UTG numbers? He might be 15/10 or even tighter... with 1.7K hands it's plenty of sample to get more specific with his EP VPIP/PFR...


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Mon Mar 04, 2013, 10:58 PM
(#6)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheAwesomeNW View Post

1.7k hands
F3B:10%(21)
4bet: 25%(20)
I tried out some of those stats at 5nl, and they were too advanced (like regs mostly 3-bet++ for value, and casual players who 3-bet++ light don't stick around long enough for stats to accumulate?)

But it was seeming like maybe these stats might be needed for 10nl? I'm not too familiar with their usage ... are those stats saying that 10% of 3-bets were 21 hands (met with a fold), but 25% of 3-bets were 20 hands (met with a 4-bet)?

That can't be right lol ...


EDIT: oh, maybe I should finish my train of thought ... was wondering if, like if the villain responds to 3-bets with either a fold, raise (4-bet), or call, then does that mean the villain called 65% of 3-bets? and would that be 210/1700 times or 80/1700 times that he's been 3-bet?

I'm so used to my own set-up ... but like is his attempt to steal from late position really high (and therefore he's calling 3-bets really wide and playing position)? or is his attempt to steal from late position really low (and therefore he's calling 3-bets a lot because his raises are generally for value, and so he's happy to be calling 3-bets where he'll get to see the flop in position)?

There were these stats too that I'm not familiar with:
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheAwesomeNW View Post

Flop FCB(3bet pot): 50%(12)
Flop raise CB(3bet pot): 42%(12)
Same as with the other stats, I'm not sure I'm interpreting these right lol ... but are they saying that with 3-bet pots, 92% of the time he's only raising or folding?

With 1,700 hands on this villain, do you have any hands in your HUD where anybody's called his reraise and gone to showdown where villain's had to show his cards?

What's interesting is that he chose to shove, rather than just reraise. Sometimes that can mean different things for different villains ... people are like snowflakes that way - no two are alike I guess

But like ... I don't know ... I guess if he's overbetting, does that mean that thing of like we don't have to call all the time to profit from his overbet? Like IF he's overbetting wide, then the next time he does it, you could call with a stronger hand, and catch him! 1,700 hands - you guys must play each other a lot!

Hope I don't read this tomorrow and find out I've been rambling because I should have gone to bed about 10 minutes ago, and instead kept typing ...

Last edited by TrustySam; Mon Mar 04, 2013 at 11:37 PM..
 
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Tue Mar 05, 2013, 12:24 AM
(#7)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,510
(Head Trainer)
Hi Sam,

Quote:
F3B:10%(21)
4bet: 25%(20)
The parenthesis are the number of hands in the sample. So for example these stats read:

Fold to a 3b 10% of the time (specifically 2/21 times that villain was 3-bet they folded to it)

4b 25% of the time (specifically 5/20 times they had an opportunity to 4b preflop, they did so)


Quote:
Flop FCB(3bet pot): 50%(12)
Flop raise CB(3bet pot): 42%(12)
Folds to a continuation bet on the flop in 3-bet pots 50% of the time (specifically 6 out of 12 opportunities)

Raises a c-bet on the flop in 3-bet pots 42% (or 5 of 12 opportunities).

So it would seem he's faced a flop c-bet after calling a 3b preflop 12 times, folding 6 of them and raising 5 of them (and calling the other time, since that's the only other option left).

Hope this helps.

Dave


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Tue Mar 05, 2013, 05:29 PM
(#8)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
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Oh ... ah haha!! That's a huge help - thanks Dave!!

So ... does the villain's only been 3-bet 20 times in 1,700 hands then? Is it just me or does that seem a little on the low side??

Is it possible to table-select to get people in the blinds who don't defend against late position steals?

Or is this player just raising when he thinks he's ahead of peoples' ranges - like strictly for value, and so people rarely 3-bet him? Maybe also because his stats show that he's just going to call?

Like are those just standard TAG stats? And same with the push/fold stats post-flop for 3-bet pots possibly?

Maybe one reason a straight value player might have chosen to shove the flop I guess could have been because he knows you didn't 3-bet pre-flop with KJ, and so if he has a hand like QQ, maybe he doesn't mind if you fold to his shove or call his shove, but he just doesn't want to bother having to deal with a messy turn card? Like if a 3rd heart came, where he won't know where he stands? Like Dave said

Are those 3-bet stats on your main HUD NW, or are they from your pop-up? Do you find you use them a lot?

Last edited by TrustySam; Tue Mar 05, 2013 at 05:33 PM..
 
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Wed Mar 06, 2013, 02:12 AM
(#9)
TheAwesomeNW's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 474
Heys Sam, now that you mentioned, I can't help but agree that getting 3bet 21 times out of 1.7k in my database is on the low side. So unlike Zoom lol. On my main HUD, I have 3bet, F3B, 4bet, F4B. The raise cbet(3bet pot) is on my pop-up

Dave, I checked his VPIP/PFR for each position. EP: 16/16, MP: 14/14, CO: 20/17, BTN: 26/18. Pretty even for EP and MP. I think it consists of all PPs and suited broadways for 16%.
 
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Wed Mar 06, 2013, 10:11 AM
(#10)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,510
(Head Trainer)
PFR 14%, but of those 14% preflop raises, he's been 3-betting someone a % of the time that TheAwesome didn't give us... for a TAG let's say it averages 3.5% (TANW can plug in the real number to be more precise). So his preflop open raise (2-bets) are roughly 14-3.5 or 10.5%.

1700 hands x 10.5% = 179 hands.

21/179 ~12% of the time he's getting 3b.

Yeah, that seems low to me. At least, if feels like I get 3b more frequently at 25nl. lol Not sure how 16NL compares but it does seem a bit low.


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Wed Mar 06, 2013, 10:23 AM
(#11)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,510
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Just out of curiosity I looked at a sample of hands I played at 25nl, 8746 hands over which I played 23/17.5/7.1. So 17.5 PFR - 7.1 3b's = 10.4% 2b's.

8746 x 10.4% ~ 910 hands

Out of those times I got 3b 199 hands, so ~22% of the time. I would expect lower stakes to have a lower frequency but 16NL isn't that much lower. Maybe it plays closer to 10NL than 25NL. At any rate 12% does seem a bit low but not unrealistic I suppose.


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Wed Mar 06, 2013, 05:45 PM
(#12)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
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Oh, those are interesting stats

Sounds like those 3-bet++'ll are more important to have the higher up in states one goes?
 

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