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2nl 6max zoom Did I overplay here?

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2nl 6max zoom Did I overplay here? - Sun Mar 03, 2013, 03:44 AM
(#1)
Nashy1996's Avatar
Since: Dec 2011
Posts: 164
Sorry, this hand was deleted by its owner

Hi Everyone,

This hand is another value spot that i wanted to question.
i get 2 callers out of the Blinds the main villian in the SB has stats of 36/15 5% 3bet over 56 hands also i had info that he'd donked flop with top pair or better.
The bb opponent had stats of 14/9 over 22 hands.

i raised the flop for value beacuse i obviously didnt want to continue against 2 opponents with this hand and also the flop has some drawing possibilities but i feel like i still have the best hand.
Now we're headsup, i feel like if anything the turn helps my hand against alot of the villians jack range and my opponent donk bets small,i took this as weakness and made a normal sized value bet again.
On the river i was going to just check it down as i felt the pot may be getting a little large for a 1 pair hand,but i came to the conclusion that the way the hand played out i could get value from worse hands so given the pot size i bet enough to put the villian allin.

Did i overplay my hand here? did i bloat the pot? and could i have checked on the end with my one pair?

Thanks Heaps
 
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Sun Mar 03, 2013, 06:30 AM
(#2)
mimesis.is's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 74
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nashy1996 View Post
Did i overplay my hand here? did i bloat the pot? and could i have checked on the end with my one pair?
Not an official hand reviewer but it's a relevant spot for me to have a think over anyway so my thoughts:

Given that you said villain 2 is apparently 3 betting about 5% of his range, I think we can usually assume he doesn't have JJ/QQ/KK by the way he played it then, especially when you're raising from the button.
Hands like 55/88/KJ/J8 he would likely donk bet that have you beat, might also be donk betting an open ender or top pair/kicker given how loose he potentially is.

Your flop reraise was pretty huge. Not sure if I like it tbh, you want to get drawing hands to throw more money than they should into the pot, but making the pot so big cuts his range a lot. I'd narrow it to 55/88/KJ/J8/AJ/QJ with potential of JJ or some sick (67?lol) too.

The turn and the river don't really change much, save for if he was crazy enough to call your massive raise with 67 or lucked out on the turn with KJ.
I guess it's always possible that he's been playing AK and bluffing until he hit the K on the turn.

So on the river I'd say the range he'd be on almost all of the time is gonna be 55/88/J8/QJ/KJ/AJ/AK, only QJ/AJ/AK you're ahead of and none of those super likely to call a river bet except for maybe AK under the impression that he improved past you on the turn.

He did check to you on the river, but given your aggression post flop many people would have probably done the same with a monster hand. I think I'd want to check back this hand. Betting for value isn't going to get many worse hands to call and there's plenty of hands way ahead of you in this spot.

P.S. did he have J8?
 
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Sun Mar 03, 2013, 10:04 AM
(#3)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,513
(Head Trainer)
Hi Nashy,

The flop is pretty dry, only draws T9 and 76... I like your line of raising the flop as I think we're looking at a lot of top pairs, maybe an occassional draw or gutter like QT trying to take a card.

I think the turn is bad for us in that it may scare most of the opponent's range, but he donks again. His bet sizing is tiny, 1/10th of the pot, I would go ahead raise. I still think his range consists of a lot of top pair hands, maybe with 2 clubs that picked up a flush draw and wants to get a cheap river card. Or maybe that QT that picked up outs. I think your raise sizing is too small, think about why you chose this size. Your raising to a total bet amount that is less than half the pot. When a villain bets tiny like this and you are going to raise, it's reasonable to treat his bet like a check and just raise to roughly the amount you would have bet had he checked to you. In this case I'd be betting around .50c-.55c.

I don't mind making a thin value bet here on the river. The 4 gets 67 there but doesn't help anything else so I think if we had the best hand on the turn (and the action indicates we should have) then we still have the best hand on the river most of the time, and this villain seems like a good candidate to pay us off with it.


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Sun Mar 03, 2013, 10:25 AM
(#4)
mimesis.is's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 74
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheLangolier View Post
I don't mind making a thin value bet here on the river. The 4 gets 67 there but doesn't help anything else so I think if we had the best hand on the turn (and the action indicates we should have) then we still have the best hand on the river most of the time, and this villain seems like a good candidate to pay us off with it.
Damn. I was so confident with my reading of the situation at the time!
Dave's logic seems sound to me though.
 
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Sun Mar 03, 2013, 11:47 AM
(#5)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,513
(Head Trainer)
Thanks, checking back isn't bad, especially if we think he'll fold Jx to our bet (we need to be called and good 50%+ of the time to make the bet profitable). I think it's fine either way here, but am a notorious thin value bettor on the river.

Whatever he shows, we should make a note on the villain for future reference so we'll make better decisions against him next time.


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Sun Mar 03, 2013, 09:36 PM
(#6)
Nashy1996's Avatar
Since: Dec 2011
Posts: 164
Thanks so much for all your analysis some great stuff here.
Thanks memesis.is for your in depth analysis of my hand its always enjoyable when we get these discussions going.

Dave's right i think with my bet sizing on the turn,i actually thought about that later and thought it was a bit small,i wasnt really achieving what i wanted with that small sizing giving the villian a better price to continue with some of the equity he/she may have picked up on the turn plus not getting more value when ahead most of the time.

Also i dont think memesis.is is too far off with maybe thinking check river or dave wanting to get thin value it seems fairly close as dave mentioned.

Thanks Dave for making me feel more confident about my line


Thanks again everyone

Last edited by Nashy1996; Sun Mar 03, 2013 at 09:37 PM.. Reason: delete spelling error
 
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Sun Mar 03, 2013, 09:44 PM
(#7)
Nashy1996's Avatar
Since: Dec 2011
Posts: 164
Also Dave just wondering how you worked out that we need to be called and good 50%+ of the time to be profitable here?

Thanks
 
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Mon Mar 04, 2013, 08:50 AM
(#8)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,513
(Head Trainer)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nashy1996 View Post
Also Dave just wondering how you worked out that we need to be called and good 50%+ of the time to be profitable here?

Thanks
That's for the river bet only, not including what's already in the pot. The current pot is already spoken for, we can check down and see who wins.

If we're going for a river value bet, this bet needs to be called by a worse hand more than half the time to be profitable. If we bet (risk) $1 on the river it's to win an extra $1 when called and good. If he will be good 80% of the time he calls us, then the times he folds we get no additional value beyond checking down, and when he calls we win an extra $1 20% of the time (+.20c) and lose an extra $1 80% of the time (-.80c) for a net average of -.60c (the bet has an EV, expected value, of -.60c).
When it's a straight wager, bet 1 to win 1, the break even point is 50%.


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