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any thoughts

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any thoughts - Wed Mar 06, 2013, 08:36 AM
(#1)
kingkong263's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 175
i only have 4 hands on guy . i bet turn for value from draws, on river i checked i could not see any value from betting but i think i was wrong
 
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Wed Mar 06, 2013, 09:44 AM
(#2)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,355
I don't think there are many (or any?) worse hands that can call a river bet, unless villain turned out to be a super-station. (After 4 hands, you're basically readless).

Villain flatted in the BB, so he'll typically have a small/medium pair or two suited Broadways. The flop is fairly wet, and villain can have several draws or pair+draw combos. He might also peel one off with a medium pair, expecting/hoping you'll be one-and-done.
The turn makes the board even wetter, putting out another flush draw. You usually have the best hand here, but have to be careful of hands like KQdd and KTdd that picked up a couple of backdoor draws to go with their pair. Villain might also have you beat with two pairs, or a slowplayed set. I'd expect him to check-raise with those, so his check-call looks like a one pair hand with a weak draw. AQ (which beats you) is calling too.
The river gives you trips, but also completes the flush. If villain was on spades all along, perhaps with QTss, JTss, or Q9ss for combo draws, he's not folding now.

I don't see villain showing up with A9 here (it would be a remarkable float out of position if so), and I don't think hands like KQ or KT would call if you fired the third bullet, so checking behind on the river looks fine to me.
Having said that, one of my weaknesses is not value-betting thinly on the river often enough, so I'll defer to one of the other analysers here. Let's see if Dave or someone else thinks you can get called by worse if you make a river bet...


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Wed Mar 06, 2013, 03:08 PM
(#3)
DivorcedDuck's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 165
Quote:
Originally Posted by ArtySmokesPS View Post
I don't think there are many (or any?) worse hands that can call a river bet, unless villain turned out to be a super-station. (After 4 hands, you're basically readless).
#

Quote:
Villain flatted in the BB, so he'll typically have a small/medium pair or two suited Broadways. The flop is fairly wet, and villain can have several draws or pair+draw combos. He might also peel one off with a medium pair, expecting/hoping you'll be one-and-done.
i think you have a small loophole here in your thoughts. if villains range is really that small, there are simply not enough strong draws in his range you have to fear.

99-22,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,KQo

if i´m right there´s only 1 combo for a monster draw (oesd+fd) and one more for a fd+pair. the draws you´re referring to are gut shots and backdoors only. because the board hits the range directly instead of connecting which would make strong draw more likely.

however, the point the board hits villains range directly makes us morelikely being behind on that flop and i see our hero only ahead against the pockets. they are only ~35% of villains range. check behind on flop would be reasonable to me. for value the c-bet is very close if i assume your range to be correct.


Quote:
The turn makes the board even wetter, putting out another flush draw.
in german i would call this a short circuit. even if villain comes with his whole "drawing" range to the turn the A is no scarecard for our hero in any way! the best cards on turn for our hero are Q,A,T (in that order) because they mostlikely improve our hero but not villain. there aren´t that much draws out there in the range you described.



Quote:
You usually have the best hand here, but have to be careful of hands like KQdd and KTdd that picked up a couple of backdoor draws to go with their pair. Villain might also have you beat with two pairs, or a slowplayed set.
slowpayed set? where are the slowplayed sets in your range of villain? carefull about the draws? against the draws you have just made a huge jump in equity and you now for sure have a real value bet.

Quote:
I'd expect him to check-raise with those, so his check-call looks like a one pair hand with a weak draw. AQ (which beats you) is calling too.
interesting. i think the point you describe doesn´t match you analyzis so far. the reason for that is that you gave villain only a very tigh passive blind defend range.

Quote:
The river gives you trips, but also completes the flush. If villain was on spades all along, perhaps with QTss, JTss, or Q9ss for combo draws, he's not folding now.
the difference in equity against villains range between the Ah and the As is only marginal, both have 90%+... only two combos.

the question is will villain go on with his two pair hands, with his busted draw+pair combos or is he scared by two aces on the board? just ask yourself, would you be scared about the two aces or would you call a 3rd barrel a lot of times?

Quote:
I don't see villain showing up with A9 here (it would be a remarkable float out of position if so), and I don't think hands like KQ or KT would call if you fired the third bullet, so checking behind on the river looks fine to me.
Having said that, one of my weaknesses is not value-betting thinly on the river often enough, so I'll defer to one of the other analysers here. Let's see if Dave or someone else thinks you can get called by worse if you make a river bet...
that´s great! knowing your weakness gives you the possibillity to turn it into strength!

i disagree with the draw heavyness of your analyzis. there aren´t that much draws in villains range as you describe. i also disagree to the point that a standard villains range on micros is that tight. yes, full ring is way tighter than 6-max but people are calling with any A and any suited connector, any suited broadway a lot of times, so there´s a ton of hands which will happily pay you. not to forget the ones who think they are smart and passive defend with hands they should 3bet, i admit that´s result oriented but the first thing i thought when i read your line was that villain is based on stacksize either a midstacker or a fish. the midstacker will trap you a lot of times and the fish plays by far more hands.

range of fish: TT-22,AJs-A2s,KTs+,QTs+,J9s+,T8s+,97s+,86s+,76s,65s,54s,43s, 32s,AQo-A2o,KTo+,QTo+,JTo

range of mss: 55+,A9s+,KJs+,QJs,ATo+,KQo

against the fish your analysis would fit better as a recreational would have way more draws in his range. btw. A9s is in the standard mss blind defend range vs. CO.

nice to see you around as a hand analyser now.
 
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Wed Mar 06, 2013, 04:14 PM
(#4)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,355
Thanks for your additional thoughts, Duck. There's a lot to think about here. I'm still learning, so the debate is always welcome.


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