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did i make a bad fold

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did i make a bad fold - Wed Mar 06, 2013, 08:48 AM
(#1)
kingkong263's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 175
only 8 hands vp25 pr25 afq100. think i picked a bad time to try playing good
 
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Wed Mar 06, 2013, 10:48 AM
(#2)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,517
(Head Trainer)
Hi kingkong,

I think the fold is ok tbh. We are basically readless with only 8 hands but this guy can certainly have all the hands that beat us in his range here, AA, QQ, 99, AQ, and possible A9 (let's say A9s). We tie AK. The best hand that is just worse than ours is AJ, it doesn't seem likely he would check-raise the flop with AJ. There's no real draws except JT, which maybe he plays suited like this preflop, but maybe not.

If the villain were wild or was known to chronically overvalue hands then we can continue, but in the absence of such reads I'm fine letting discretion be the better part of valor and taking a pass here.


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Wed Mar 06, 2013, 11:23 AM
(#3)
DivorcedDuck's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 165
the stats are worthless in this spot. standard 3bet with AKo preflop is fine in my eyes. you don´t want to play it mulitway and it performs well against a bet-callaing range in position as it has some blocking potential. a call would be only an invitation for the button and the blinds to join the hand. so preflop it it´s fine most of the time, especially vs. unknown. you can make the 3bet a bit higher if you like. you either get called by a fish with a draw who pays you anyway or by a reg with a small range of hands and against both you have a great risk reward ratio in position, especially as an A on the board is killing a lot of action against the reg. in addition it´s NL2 and the regs on NL2 are bad without any exception and bad players make huge mistakes so give him a chance to do so.

postflop you make TPTK but the ranges aren´t wide and an A is always a scarecard in a 3bet pot. You got a C/R on a basically dry board. Chances are villain has AQ, QQ, 99 or he´s doing some crazy things with a gut shot.

i don´t see him bluffing here that often as his bluff would only work against TT,JJ and may be KK. An Ax would be a possibility too but we would need a read for that and fishes are unlikely to C/R. I would expect this by some over aggressive midstacks but not by a regular big stack or fish

another point is the bet size. I don´t like to call here, because the pot is 3betted and raised. the raise is committing villain to the pot, so you have a push or fold decision.

i don´t see any fold eqity and a push would need 40% of equity. i don´t see any realistic scenarion which leaves you with more than 30% of equity here, so you should fold and thank villain for wasting a lot of value.

nice hand
 

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