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good play or bad

good play or bad - Wed Mar 06, 2013, 05:54 PM
kingkong263's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 175
vp17 pr14 afq48 853 hands , the turn bet was telling me he would fold to a raise
Thu Mar 07, 2013, 07:58 AM
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,353
I'm not sure you can call with QJs and go heads up vs a 17/14 TAG unless you have good reads/notes on his leaks, as your hand is going to be dominated sometimes, and villain is unlikely to give you cheap cards if you flop a nice draw. Multiway, or against a weaker player, you could play, but I think I'd rather call with 76s than QJs here, because making top pair could be terrible with QJ, but 76 is easier to fold.

As played, the flop is ragged, and villain will be c-betting his entire range. Obviously he has overpairs in there, but mostly he has 2 overs. I'd typically give up here, unless I know villain is one-and-done, with a turn c-bet of less than 40%.

You decide to float and you pick up the flush draw. For villain to bet strongly here, he'd usually need TPTK, overpair, set or flush draw himself. But he bets less than half pot, which does look weak; like he has AK but doesn't want to "waste" a big bet with top air. I like the raise. I think you have plenty of fold equity here. Some villains will even fold an overpair here, as they'll put you on a set rather than a draw. Against a weaker player/station that has been betting for value, this raise would be suicidal, as he'll call/shove and you won't make the hand often enough to profit.

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