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think maybe i played this bad

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think maybe i played this bad - Wed Mar 06, 2013, 06:34 PM
(#1)
kingkong263's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 175
stats vp13 pr5 afq22 i think i should have checked turn
 
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Thu Mar 07, 2013, 02:43 AM
(#2)
mimesis.is's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 74
If you had instead checked the turn, what kind of hand were you realistically hoping to get value from that didn't have you beat exactly?

I'm really not seeing what your thought process is here.
 
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Thu Mar 07, 2013, 07:01 AM
(#3)
kingkong263's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 175
if i check and he bets i will need to fold, i will get odds to call, and he could fold small pairs and A high hands that have me beat. that was my thinking

Last edited by kingkong263; Thu Mar 07, 2013 at 07:04 AM.. Reason: will not get odds to call
 
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Thu Mar 07, 2013, 07:34 AM
(#4)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,363
Hi KK,

It doesn't look too bad to me.

I noticed you typically open for 4bb in every seat. Do you find that has any discernible effect on fold equity? I stick with 3bb in most seats, especially when the players yet to act are nits or shortstacks, as it means you take down pots pre-flop just as often, but lose the minimum when villain has a monster. (All those blinds add up).

This villain is a rock. With stats of 13/5, he's what I call a "nitty set-miner", mainly playing all pairs and AQ+ and a few suited aces, and only raising with monsters. You can steal blinds from these guys all day, so it's great to have one on your direct left.

You raise and he calls. Based on his stats, we can probably eliminate AK and TT+ from his range, as he'd generally 3-bet those. He might defend with some suited Broadways sometimes, but mostly he has a small pair here. C-betting is fine. If he has a set, he'll let you know with a raise, but he'll usually peel one off with 2 overs or an underpair to see if you're one and done.

Villain calls and the turn brings a Q. This is a good card for you. It's an overcard to the flop, so hands like 99 and 66 are probably giving up if you bet again. You also picked up an OESD, while still having an overcard. For these reasons, it's a good card to barrel as a semi-bluff. Villain will fold some hands that were beating you, and you have decent equity when you get called.

My only minor quibble is the bet size. Since you're still drawing, you want to do it fairly cheaply. When (semi-)bluffing, you want to bet the smallest amount that is likely to get villain to fold. I think a bet of half pot here achieves precisely the same as 70%. A smaller bet also means that if villain raises to a size that destroys your pot odds, you can fold for minimum losses. By betting big, you risk bloating the pot when you have just king high.


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