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5NL 6max Zoom, AA OTB vs BB weird river line

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5NL 6max Zoom, AA OTB vs BB weird river line - Sun Mar 10, 2013, 08:04 AM
(#1)
TommyGun369's Avatar
Since: Nov 2012
Posts: 340
Hi,

The villain plays 30/25, 2.8 aggro factor with BB VPIP of 43 over 108 hands. (not enough data for donkbets - he did it 1/3 times so far)



This hand really got me confused. I think that when he donks out half pot on that flop his range is pretty wide and I want to keep it that way so I do not raise. OTT he bets again so what does he have? I still do not think that I am beat but QJ with 2 pair starts to become a real possibility. Now the river comes a 2, total brick and he checks. Why? In my experience it is either: missed draw which gives up or a marginal hand that now want to go to showdown and give me an opportunity to bluff in case I have a missed draw. The 2 is actually a great card because now I do not need to worry about QJ (but I still do not see why he would check that OTR).

Now the decision is on me. How much do I bet on the river? I feel that a regular value bet would not make much sense since a missed draw will just fold to any bet and a hand like KQ might be in check call mode and pay off a much bigger bet. Whenever I think someone goes to check call mode I like to oblige and bet big which he might expect with a missed draw. Fortunately for me there are several draws I can represent: T9, KT or I could have floated him with AhTh or AhKh. Therefore I decided to bet big thinking he might look me up with something as weak as AJ or QT but instead he check raises?? What on earth does that mean? I do not see him taking this line with a set which rivered a boat and how can he take this line with just a deuce? Furthermore, how can he expect me to value bet there? I am probably checking most of my marginal hands and only value betting AQ or better. Therefore, neither of his value hands makes any sense and in these situations I am usually inclined to call.

Do you think it is a +EV call?
Should I have taken a different line?
Is there something wrong with my thought process here?

Thanks

Tommy
 
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Sun Mar 10, 2013, 05:37 PM
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ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,353
Hi TommyGun369.

You've posted some good information here and I think your analysis is excellent. If villain had been check-calling all the way, then a check-raise or donk on the river is usually a hand that is close to the nuts, but villain took a very unconventional line. I often find it is aggro players that make weird moves like this and I've had to make lots of hero calls with much worse than an overpair.

I think your river value bet is a little large, as it's hard to get called by much worse, as most of the time I think villain's donkbets were with a draw that missed, and he's not going to call a PSB with KT high or something like that.

Because villain's line looks very bluffy, I'm always calling his check-raise. If he shows up with 66 for a turned boat, or quads with 22, then lucky him, because he'd be missing value with those hands when you check behind.
In short, I think it's an EV call, and I'd be making it 100% of the time based on the information you provided.
If you lost this one, I hope you made a good note on villain's weird line, as he'll no doubt take a similarly weird one in a similar situation, so you'll know to get out of the way if he check-raises the river in future.


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