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10nl Zoom - Q8o limped pot,

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10nl Zoom - Q8o limped pot, - Sun Mar 10, 2013, 10:17 AM
(#1)
Croyd93's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 639
The villain is unknown but shortstacked and open limped so I assume fishy.

The hand plays out simply until the river, OTR I think I have to bet to get value from all the random 2 pairs he can have in his range however I may have made it a bit big..?

Once he shoves I think he has flushes and straights in his range. We only need 25% equity to call. Against the below range of flushes and straights (both better and the same) we have 25% equity thus making it a call?

Ad9d,Ad4d,KQs,QTs+,Qd9d,6d5d,5d4d,KQo,QTo+

If I had bet a smaller size would folding be an option? Considering he will likely pick up on the fact that the flush draw got there is he less likely to shove with Qx?



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Last edited by Croyd93; Sun Mar 10, 2013 at 10:20 AM..
 
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Sun Mar 10, 2013, 11:50 AM
(#2)
TrumpinJoe's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 4,557
Code:
Bet --- Call --- Pot - Equity
1.5	2.51	10.07	25%
1.4	2.61	10.17	26%
1.3	2.71	10.27	26%
1.2	2.81	10.37	27%
1.1	2.91	10.47	28%
1.0	3.01	10.57	28%
0.9	3.11	10.67	29%
0.8	3.21	10.77	30%
-
Above are the equities for what I would consider normal river bets lower than yours. This is not a huge difference in equity, imo. I'll leave it up to you to assess the ranges required. But remember, it is wise to have an overlay to these minimum equities that compensates for the uncertainty in them having a smaller range than your read.

Your second question equates to "Is this villain able to represent a flush or shove with a one card strait?" I believe we don't have adequate information to answer that at this time.

Good decisions.
 
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Sun Mar 10, 2013, 10:22 PM
(#3)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,489
(Head Trainer)
Hi Oliver,

Flop and turn look good. I don't really like your big river bet... what are you hoping to get called by? If this card didn't improve the villain then it is going to be a very scary card to him. You might bet small for value, a token value bet to get paid off by KJ type hands, or just check and maybe induce a bluff is preferable... it's just so hard to bomb this river and expect to get called by worse on such coordinated river card.

As played, easy fold to his shove. All legit shoving hands have us beat, we tie another Q and that's probably our best hope. Don't want to call 2.50 to try and win half the pot back. If he's doing some crazy bluff more power to him but it's unlikely. 2 pair I would expect to either call or actually probably fold this big a river bet, not shove thinking they're good.


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Mon Mar 11, 2013, 04:28 AM
(#4)
Croyd93's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 639
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheLangolier View Post
Flop and turn look good. I don't really like your big river bet... what are you hoping to get called by? If this card didn't improve the villain then it is going to be a very scary card to him. You might bet small for value, a token value bet to get paid off by KJ type hands, or just check and maybe induce a bluff is preferable... it's just so hard to bomb this river and expect to get called by worse on such coordinated river card.
Hi Dave,

Thanks for the help. I thought that JT and J9 were possibilities and perhaps even J8, since he limped pre he could well play 2 pair passively. I understand that my bet was far too big, as the river was very coordinating ergo very scary to the villain.

You say to checking trying to induce a bluff is an option but what hands would he bluff with? Would a small value bet around 75c not be better so he doesn't get the opportunity to check worse made hands behind?

Thanks again

Oliver


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Mon Mar 11, 2013, 09:27 AM
(#5)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,489
(Head Trainer)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Croyd93 View Post
You say to checking trying to induce a bluff is an option but what hands would he bluff with? Would a small value bet around 75c not be better so he doesn't get the opportunity to check worse made hands behind?
Any hand that is weak on the river. Betting very small (1/3rd pot or less) or checking are far preferable to bombing the river.


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