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10NL 6 Max River Decision

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10NL 6 Max River Decision - Sun Mar 10, 2013, 11:30 PM
(#1)
TheAwesomeNW's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 474
V1's a reg, 20/16, AF:2.4 over 2.2k hands. Flop Fold to donkbet: 43%(21)
V5's 26/8, AF:2.7 over 38 hands.



I should have bet larger OTT to charge more draws. Is leading the Turn here ok?

I feel that V1's range consists of FD and trips AJ, AQ, AK, boats 22, 88. Does this make a check-fold for us OTR since we probably aren't beating anything much if we go all-in? Mistake to go all-in though we have only around 1/2 pot stack left?
 
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Mon Mar 11, 2013, 03:51 PM
(#2)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,501
(Head Trainer)
Hi TANW,


It's ok to fold preflop. It may feel nitty but it's better than playing this hand OOP vs. a solid TAG reg opening in a non-steal position. 3-betting and seizing the initiative would be better than flatting too imo. This is a villain who is not going to make a lot of big mistakes post flop presumably and will just out play us in position time and time again when we call with easily dominated hands that put us in frequent marginal post flop spots.

I would also fold to the flop action. We are going to be trailing most of the time vs V1 I think when he calls V5's overbet shove. About our best case is something like KK with the Ks, but even that is only a 43-57 dog to us right now. AK, AQ, AxJs all have us destroyed, as does KsQs, KsJs, etc.


Quote:
I feel that V1's range consists of FD and trips AJ, AQ, AK, boats 22, 88.
Yes, it makes total sense imo. And we are a 70-30 dog on the flop to this range, so we have no business calling the flop action.

By the river it's better since the flush draws all missed (for FD's I used KK, QQ, KQo all combos with a single K or Q of spades to approximate the flush draws, although it's questionable he would play KxQs calling the flop shove), but we're still not a favorite to have the best hand.


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Mon Mar 11, 2013, 11:45 PM
(#3)
TheAwesomeNW's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 474
Thx Dave, love your detailed analysis. As played, should we check-fold if he bombs the river? He did hold 22 and had us crushed all the way
 
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Tue Mar 12, 2013, 10:48 AM
(#4)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,501
(Head Trainer)
Yes, I like a fold at virtually all decision points, including facing a river bombing


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