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worth a XR on river?

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worth a XR on river? - Tue Mar 12, 2013, 08:05 PM
(#1)
wikked76's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 385


PokerStars - $0.05 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MORALEZ750 (BTN): $11.06 (VPIP: 39.78, PFR: 29.28, 3Bet Preflop: 9.84, Hands: 190)
SyogunAxe (SB): $2.61 (VPIP: 47.06, PFR: 29.41, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 18)
petsi777 (BB): $4.26 (VPIP: 31.25, PFR: 6.25, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 18)
wikked76 (UTG): $5.12
Silent-Ghome (MP): $5.13 (VPIP: 21.74, PFR: 17.39, 3Bet Preflop: 5.56, Hands: 95)
Warriortowin (CO): $16.68 (VPIP: 19.13, PFR: 10.93, 3Bet Preflop: 2.70, Hands: 187)

SyogunAxe posts SB $0.02, petsi777 posts BB $0.05

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.07) wikked76 has K:club: A:heart:

wikked76 raises to $0.15, fold, fold, MORALEZ750 raises to $0.25, fold, fold, wikked76 calls $0.10

Flop: ($0.57, 2 players) A:club: 9:heart: J:spade:
wikked76 checks, MORALEZ750 checks

Turn: ($0.57, 2 players) 6:spade:
wikked76 bets $0.30, MORALEZ750 raises to $0.75, wikked76 calls $0.45

River: ($2.07, 2 players) 2:club:
wikked76 checks, MORALEZ750 bets $0.60, wikked76 calls $0.60

MORALEZ750 shows T:diamond: A:diamond: (One Pair, Aces) (Pre 31%, Flop 15%, Turn 7%)
wikked76 shows K:club: A:heart: (One Pair, Aces) (Pre 69%, Flop 85%, Turn 93%)
wikked76 wins $3.13


issit worth a XR on the river in this spot?
with a min 3b PF, i range the villain on TT+, maybe AK, AQs, mayb AJs as well.

when the river is a blank, was worried about slowplayed sets on the flop, maybe turned 2pair?
 
Old
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Wed Mar 13, 2013, 08:26 AM
(#2)
Croyd93's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 639
Sup wikked,

Firstly I think your ranging is off for his pre flop 3bet. Think about it, he's 3betting nearly 10% off hands so in all likelyhood he's going to be sizing these 3 bets smaller to make his bluffs cheaper. I think his range is wider than what you state but not much wider as you raised UTG. He probably has a range similar to what you stated but some bluffs as well like A5s and a few suited connector combos.

Due to his wide range and being OOP I like a 4 bet, he'll often call with dominated Aces and if he calls with pairs and we hit he'll have trouble giving them up so we should be able to get value. I like making a 4 bet of around 75c here.

When you just call it leaves us in a bad postion on the flop as we have to check to him in the hopes of him cbetting a worse hand. Once it goes check/check I agree with a turn lead but I would make it bigger, the board isn't great for our hand and lots of river card can A) kill our action B) allow villain to raw out on us. I'd make a turn lead of around 45c.

His raise is really wierd and this inclines me to call, I think he can do this with aces that pick up the FD such as As5s, AsTs. Also worse hands like AQ might raise here for value and to 'see where they are at'. This being said he also has a lot of value hands in his range such as slowplayed sets and 2 pair, I'm calling and re-evaluating the river.

The river bricks out and I definately like checking to the villain, he's not often going to call with a worse hand if we donk and against this villain type we may well be bluffed so I like checking and evaluating. His bet is so small and I think calling here will be very profitable. He'll make this bet with nearly his entire turn raising range imo and as said previously we beat a lot of hands in that range so I would call.

I don't like check raising, think about what he calls your bet with. By x/r you will get him to call with the top of his range only. The top of his range crushes your holding so x/c OTR. The main point I think to take from this hand is to 4 bet pre, it gives you intiative post flop and allows you to define your equity better allowing you to put money in the pot when you're ahead and fold when behind more easily. Also having initiative gives you the opportunity to win the pot when you miss.

Oli


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Old
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Wed Mar 13, 2013, 08:59 AM
(#3)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,353
Hi wikked,

Oli's written a great analysis and I pretty much agree with it all. I'll just add a couple of things for emphasis.
If the villain was a positionally aware nit/tag, I'm nearly always folding to the 3-bet, because you can expect a range of QQ+/AK. This villain is much laggier and it's a minraise, so his range contains medium pairs, worse aces and suited Broadways. So I'd definitely 4-bet for both value and to regain the initiative. I'd often be prepared to stack off pre-flop against this opponent.

As played, you call and it looks like a good flop for AK, but this flop smashes villain's range. JJ, 99 and AJ are in his 3-betting range, so I'm not loving TPTK here. I'd be hoping he has AQ/AT or will bluff with KQ or QQ/TT. My plan with TPTK in this spot would be to station it up, check-calling all the way.
Somewhat oddly, villain doesn't c-bet, so I'm slightly worried he's slowplaying a set. (Aggros/maniacs love slowplaying when they finally make a monster).
The turn is fairly blank, but puts out a FD. I'd sometimes even check here, hoping villain will stab at the pot, but betting is OK. The trouble is it allows villain to raise and put you in a horrible spot. His raise size here is not much more than a minraise, but I'm increasingly woried about a set of 9s or jacks, and would usually fold to a tighter player, but calling against this aggro player might be +EV.

On the brick river, I'm absolutely check-calling and not raising. You're getting a cheap price to see if you held vs AQ/AT/KK/QQ/TT/air, but will only get called by a slowplayed monster if you raise.
If villain takes this line with 99+,ATs+,ATo+, you'll have the best hand at showdown 68% of the time. But if you check-raise and get called/shoved on, I think it drops to 0%.


Bracelet Winner
 
Old
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Wed Mar 13, 2013, 06:41 PM
(#4)
wikked76's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 385
Thanks Oli and Arty for the great analysis, got me head again about previous hands Ive played in similiar situations...

Thanks again and GL
 

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