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$7 STT chip leader calling 2 all-ins - math call?

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$7 STT chip leader calling 2 all-ins - math call? - Fri Mar 15, 2013, 08:17 PM
(#1)
ForrestFive's Avatar
Since: May 2011
Posts: 2,036
Hi,

This is one of those should I or shouldn't I? In live training we hear about the maths call 2 : 1 pot odds with any two?

Not any two cards here >>67s<< but against two all-in as well.

Yes an easy call or no keep those chips you are the chip leader? Ok it turns out nice for me but...
 
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Fri Mar 15, 2013, 09:09 PM
(#2)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,487
(Head Trainer)
Hi Forrest,

IMO this is a fold.

I discuss the 2-1 math call in my training classes a lot, but you're missing some things that are applicable in this case.

The 2-1 math call factors in:

-It's heads up
-The villain's range is very wide
-The impact to your stack if you lose won't be detrimental to your position in the tournament or your ability to use valuable plays like restealing etc.

In this hand I think the 3rd factor is present, a loss won't be detrimental to your tournament position really. However the first 2 factors aren't there. It's not heads up but 3 handed, for which you generally need more odds. The premise of the 2-1 math call is that against a wide you're not that big a dog... in fact against a random hand 72o is only a 2-1 underdog preflop. But if you have to outrun multiple opponents you are going to be a bigger dog to them both collectively. While the first all in is shorter and not as big of a factor (you'll be effectively heads up for about 40% of the pot with the bigger stack), the reshover's range is not random nor likely wide. Against a super wide range 76s would have a nice overlay here and only be a 40-45% dog but against a tight range you're probably at the actual 2-1 even with this holding (and 72o would be about 3-1 dog vs a tighter range).

Hope this helps.


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Fri Mar 15, 2013, 10:09 PM
(#3)
ForrestFive's Avatar
Since: May 2011
Posts: 2,036
Thanks Dave,

On the 2 : 1 odds I remembered the situations in training are heads up, short stack and wide range.

Here I make a big mistake. I actually thought I had better odds being 3 way just topping up the pot to get a 1/3 equity of the pie.

I'm not doing this with 72o - T2o but 76s live against most Ax and maybe hit a mid-low draw against a pair.

Yes your 3rd point is crucial here. With 1bb invested I'm calling another 4bb and it won't impact my tournament position losing here.
 

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