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10NL 6 Max Boat River Decision

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10NL 6 Max Boat River Decision - Fri Mar 15, 2013, 10:58 PM
(#1)
TheAwesomeNW's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 474
Villain's a reg, 22/13, AF 1.5 over 781 hands. CO Stl:29%(72), Flop Fold to Donkbet: 25%(8)



He shoved the river. Should we consider folding to this due to his line- calling 2 streets and shoving the river + low AF of 1.5? Possibly having AA, AJ, AT or A6.

Or generally it's the right move to call? Any chance he's shoving with worse like AK and 66?
 
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Sat Mar 16, 2013, 12:01 AM
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RockerguyAA's Avatar
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I think as played you are beyond the point of there being any decision when you are re-raised on river. You are getting 4:1. There is no other option but to call in my opinion. AA, AJ, AT, 66 are all very possible. AK equally as possible, AQ a bit less.

Absolutely a value raise on river by villain, but it is kind of a moot point here unless you think your losing 100% of the time.

Also, it seems strange that villain is 22/13 and open raises cutoff 29%? Not sure if A6s is part of an overall 13% opening range anywhere but the button. If he really is raising 29% it is definitely a possibility as well.

If you lost then I would just tuck this one into the dictionary next to the word 'cooler' and move on.
 
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Sat Mar 16, 2013, 02:23 AM
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wikked76's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 385
i'd think i'd go for the line of "puke 1st then call"?

reckon the villain's range could be Ax, maybe 66 or JJ but me thinks with the river bet of $4 and getting shoved on with $5 remaining, i'd call. feel damn sick doing so too...
 
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Sat Mar 16, 2013, 08:09 AM
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GarethC23's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,273
Hey Awesome

I don't think we should fold this river facing the raise. It is not awesome but he can do this with worse, including KQcc, and our price is good enough I think. The coordination of the J is a problem, but a Q or a K would be slightly worse.

I think if you are going to lead at the pot you should take this line on the turn and the river, but I think this makes for a very natural spot to check-raise.

Sure, your main villain doesn't fold to donk bets. That might be enough actually to change my mind, but check-raising has a lot of advantages here. One is that when you check and the initial raiser bets the other player in the pot can come along more easily than if you lead out and the initial raiser continues.

So that way you can get an extra bet in on the flop more often. Also check-raising looks very much like a draw in this situation, so I don't think it is going to look any stronger per se, than a lead.

As played you are going to lose a lot facing this river raise, but I don't think it is enough for folding to be better than calling.
 
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Sat Mar 16, 2013, 12:40 PM
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TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheAwesomeNW View Post
Villain's a reg, 22/13, AF 1.5 over 781 hands. CO Stl:29%(72), Flop Fold to Donkbet: 25%(8)
I wonder if maybe the 'Flop Fold to Donkbet' is unreliable in this spot, in that the pot's multi-way? Like since you're donk betting into two of them, and he's not last to act?

I don't know
 
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Sat Mar 16, 2013, 08:10 PM
(#6)
TheAwesomeNW's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 474
Heys Sam the Flop Fold to Donkbet is inclusive of multiway as well, but I don't think HM2 has made it so detailed to segregate heads-up and multiway Main reason for leading out was that there's a FD on board while V3 only had a modest 58% Flop cbet. Didn't want suckouts to happen. On the other hand, we hope to keep V2 in the pot as well

What surprised me was realising that we still had 93bb effective stack OTR despite 2 rounds of betting. Check/raising Flop would have reduced this problem. It also missed my mind that we're getting 4:1 to make the call. Very decent odds so yea puke/calling is the way to go lol.

And he showed up with AJo. Right odds right call though
 
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Sat Mar 16, 2013, 08:25 PM
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TrustySam's Avatar
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Oh ... guess I was just sort of talking out loud


Was just thinking that one reason a person might have a low fold to donk bet is because they like to float in position, in head-to-head pots, especially when the donk bets are small?

Like in the same way you don't make a practice of donk betting, the same *might* be said about someone calling a donk bet in a multi-way pot, when they're not in position?

Like that reason for being more liberal about calling donk bets, didn't exist here?


Guess you still aren't finding the w$sd stat reliable NW? If the villains was over like 55, I wonder if this would still be a call? Would everybody still call?
 
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Sat Mar 16, 2013, 11:31 PM
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wikked76's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 385
Quote:
Originally Posted by TrustySam View Post
If the villains was over like 55, I wonder if this would still be a call? Would everybody still call?

hey sam,

i guess i'd still call, sigh...
puke a little 1st tho, swallow, then click call
 
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Sat Mar 16, 2013, 11:52 PM
(#9)
TheAwesomeNW's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 474
That's really tough... I say I'll go for the hero fold. But 9/10 times on the spot, I can't help but call LOL. Zeebo theorem plays a huge part. I didn't pull his W$SD stat up, but after you pointed it, I checked and it's 64%(33) haha.
 
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Sun Mar 17, 2013, 01:37 AM
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RockerguyAA's Avatar
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I say throw away the post-flop stats. Not sure we need them basically ever until we reach much higher stakes and play thousands of hands vs the same opponents.

I can tell you villain is betting river for value 99% of the time with zero postflop stats and only the info given on this thread. The real question is what hands does villain include in his value range here?
 
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Sun Mar 17, 2013, 10:06 AM
(#11)
TrustySam's Avatar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wikked76 View Post
hey sam,

i guess i'd still call, sigh...
puke a little 1st tho, swallow, then click call

*still* have yet to see a beat as bad as you losing with that straight flush
 
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Sun Mar 17, 2013, 10:37 AM
(#12)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheAwesomeNW View Post
That's really tough... I say I'll go for the hero fold. But 9/10 times on the spot, I can't help but call LOL. Zeebo theorem plays a huge part. I didn't pull his W$SD stat up, but after you pointed it, I checked and it's 64%(33) haha.
Quote:
Originally Posted by RockerguyAA View Post
I say throw away the post-flop stats. Not sure we need them basically ever until we reach much higher stakes and play thousands of hands vs the same opponents.

I can tell you villain is betting river for value 99% of the time with zero postflop stats and only the info given on this thread. The real question is what hands does villain include in his value range here?
omg, well do you remember there was that time where I tried describing my 'big picture' method for interpreting HUD stats, and y'all were like ...

Thought I had noticed that people who are tight passive, who don't steal a lot, who are profitable, sometimes tending to have higher w$sds? EG:



Because they don't blinds steal as much, and don't cbet as much, which is part of how their AF got low (combined with their calling ... and folding)?

Like they're signs of a more cautious personality perhaps?

(just used these HUD stats to show that 'big picture' thingie because it's one I saw at the table - although the sample size is low, so it might not necessarily hold true for the person after more hands)


Hey rocker!! Great to see you!!

Ya, there's always that question of sample size, eh?

Last edited by TrustySam; Sun Mar 17, 2013 at 10:40 AM..
 
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Sun Mar 17, 2013, 12:10 PM
(#13)
RockerguyAA's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,089
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Hey TrustySam

I do agree with your approach to HUD stats, but my point isn't so much about sample size. I just think that in the micros we can make fairly good decisions post-flop using only pre-flop stats and post-flop notes. That is my strategy anyways. Seems to work out allright even when playing ten 6-max tables at a time. A lot of assumptions have to be made from the pre-flop stats, but it works most of the time because how an opponent plays pre-flop is a strong indicator of how they will play post-flop. If the assumptions turn out to be wrong in some way that is where the notes come in.
 
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Sun Mar 17, 2013, 05:38 PM
(#14)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
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Hey!!

Oh yeah, you don't use a HUD, do you? I remember you telling me that when I asked you about what HUD stats you use.

Ya, I totally get what you mean, after playing without my HUD while it was broken in January. That was like the biggest blessing in disguise, because I was able to practice all that stuff, which was such a breakthrough.

With this hand, now I can't tell any more what the villain's value range might be, because we've seen the answer - guess it's AJ? lol

Guess we'll have to wait for somebody else to post another hand to practice
 
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Sun Mar 17, 2013, 11:49 PM
(#15)
RockerguyAA's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,089
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I definitely use a HUD. When we were discussing it a while back I had not played poker for several months and couldn't easily access my HUD setup. I think my trial expired...
 

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