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$0.25 45-man SnG, ATo in BB vs small stack push and fishy call

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$0.25 45-man SnG, ATo in BB vs small stack push and fishy call - Sat Mar 16, 2013, 07:07 PM
(#1)
CanuckMonkey's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 185
So here's the situation. 21 players left in a 45-man tourney. I have only 15 hands of data on Villain 1, but in those 15 hands he's playing 43/43/50 (VPIP/PFR/3-bet). I have 60 hands of data on Villain 2, and he's extremely loose, playing 72/25/16.7. Villain 1 has just under 9 big blinds left, and open-shoves from the cut-off. Villain 2, on the button with a 40 big blind stack, flat-calls. The small blind gets out of the way, and now the action is on me, in the big blind with just under 17 big blinds left.

Considering how loose Villain 2 is, does it make sense to squeeze here by shoving over-the-top? Am I right in thinking that a flat call here would be a mistake, and I should either shove or fold? Is this a case where I should be looking at some of the deeper stats on Villain 2 (to see how he responds to a 3-bet, or when he flats behind a raise), or am I unlikely to get anything useful from that closer look with only 60 hands?

Hand replay (up to the decision point) for the more visual types:



I've been revisiting this hand in my head since it happened, because I think it was the key turning point for me in this tournament (and I think I played it wrong--I did not cash in this one). Not going to tell you if I called and lost or folded and would have won, though!


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Last edited by CanuckMonkey; Sat Mar 16, 2013 at 07:09 PM.. Reason: Wording
 
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Sat Mar 16, 2013, 08:30 PM
(#2)
ForrestFive's Avatar
Since: May 2011
Posts: 2,036
Hi,

Just some general thoughts. At level 75/150 for your tourney life 2250 chips is a marker and here you don't have much more.

1) Is AT better than a 9bb shove range?
2) With the bigger stack over call do you have the fold equity to shove?
3) Never call with less than a pot size bet behind.

The best options are to raise or fold. IMO calling is not the best. If the tracking software helps you make the decision ok.

Self preservation here may be to fold or with definite reads shove.

Just my 2c.

Last edited by ForrestFive; Sat Mar 16, 2013 at 08:43 PM..
 
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Mon Mar 18, 2013, 06:48 PM
(#3)
jamesthefish's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 30
Hi Canuck,

I agree with your reasoning - you cannot call in this spot as you would be committing ~50% of your stack and would have to go with the hand regardless of the flop. However, you also get no fold equity from a shove as the loose player will call the extra 10bb if you shove.

A-10o is borderline here for me. You could be behind the short stack and are unlikely to be a big favourite in a 3-way pot.

With 3 shorter stacks at the table I would fold and look for a better spot in the next few orbits, especially if those shorter stacks are tight, or look to shove over a limp / small pre-flop raise from the LAG big stack.

But as I said, A-10 is marginal. But as you are nigh on 100% getting called into a 3-way pot, I would probably only shove with 99+ or AQo+ in this particular situation.

Fish
 
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Mon Mar 18, 2013, 07:57 PM
(#4)
ahar010's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 614
Hi CanuckMonkey,

You are correct. Calling would be bad, this is a shove or fold spot really.

I would fold most of the time here. I can see myself calling a single shove or reraising an open from Villain 2. I agree we also have very little fold equity on Villain 2.

The stats do look very loose though and sample sizes are big enough. I think a reshove is +EV but also quite high variance in a three-way pot.

A fold means we have a 16BB stack that we can still guide to a win a decent portion of the time compared to how often we win this pot 3ways.

I think both options are decent for different reasons.

One thing that would swing me towards a reshove is the side pot with Villain 2. This side pot is still 17BBs so we have the chance to win both of or one of the pots. If AT plays well vs Villain 2's range that he calls shoves with (We want to see what he's shown down in the past) we can reshove here and I think our edge increases a bit and variance decreases a bit.

Will be interesting to see if the cards in these guys ranges.

Andy




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Mon Mar 18, 2013, 08:52 PM
(#5)
ForrestFive's Avatar
Since: May 2011
Posts: 2,036
Hi CanuckMonkey,

After saying never call I thought about plugging in the numbers.

Your remaining 2515 chips to win 5340 = a 47% financial investment.

So putting both villains on a 20% range in pokerstove you are:

36% vs 28% & 36.2% so not good enough.

Even if we open up the looser villain 2's range to 40% you are:

41% vs 29% & 30.1% again not worth it.


Andy made a great point about the side pot with a re-shove.

 
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Wed Mar 20, 2013, 01:27 AM
(#6)
ahar010's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 614
Quote:
Originally Posted by ForrestFive View Post
Hi CanuckMonkey,

After saying never call I thought about plugging in the numbers.

Your remaining 2515 chips to win 5340 = a 47% financial investment.

So putting both villains on a 20% range in pokerstove you are:

36% vs 28% & 36.2% so not good enough.

Even if we open up the looser villain 2's range to 40% you are:

41% vs 29% & 30.1% again not worth it.


Andy made a great point about the side pot with a re-shove.

I think the numbers are a little off.

The main pot would be 3975 (3 x 1300 + 75 from SB)
the side pot would be 2730

So total pot would be 6705

My pokerstove tells me vs 20% ranges for both we would be 32% for the main pot and 54% for the side pot.

So that would be 32% * 3975 + 52% * 2730 = 2692 chips in equity. That would be an increase of 177 chips.

Small +EV but not worth risky our tournament for 177 chips when we have such an edge on players like these.

However given their stats I think 20% is a pretty tight range for them and I would expect them to both be playing wider. Villain 1 has been raising 43% of hands (yes a small sample) much more than 20% and he's short and in late position. Villain 2 has been calling with 50% of hands (raising with another 25%).

Vs 35% ranges for each we would be 39% for the main pot and 57% in the side pot. Now we would expect to make a profit of 591 chips and expect to only bust 43% of the time. With an increase of 4 BBs (23% of our stack) and a favourite to not bust it becomes a much better proposition.

It really comes down to how loose these guys are. The stats say alot, but like I say id' still want to have seen what kind of garbage these guys have been showing up with.

Do we get to see what they had CanuckMonkey?

Andy




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Wed Mar 20, 2013, 08:28 AM
(#7)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,353
I don't know what they showed up with this time, but I believe I was in the same tournament. The really loose player didn't fold to any shoves, even when he had total junk. I remember doubling through him when I had A9 blind v blind. I raised, he shoved, I snap called off 13bb and he had 97o.
The maniac was a bit of a luckbox, as he arrived on the final table with the biggest stack, but he ended up being the bubble boy, out in 8th, because he was calling shoves by nits with hands like Q9s and K8o.


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Wed Mar 20, 2013, 03:52 PM
(#8)
ForrestFive's Avatar
Since: May 2011
Posts: 2,036
Sorry Andy my bad.

Going back to gut feelings.
 
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Fri Mar 22, 2013, 03:37 PM
(#9)
CanuckMonkey's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 185
Quote:
Originally Posted by ahar010 View Post
It really comes down to how loose these guys are. The stats say alot, but like I say id' still want to have seen what kind of garbage these guys have been showing up with.
I don't have access to my full hand history at the moment, but I am pretty sure that I saw some pretty terrible showdowns from Villain 2. Not so sure about Villain 1, but between the two of them the stats I had seemed to fit nicely with what they were showing (i.e. I didn't just have a poor sample where they were on a run of spectacular hands or anything).

Quote:
Originally Posted by ahar010 View Post
Do we get to see what they had CanuckMonkey?
Since you asked so nicely...



So as you can see, I got REALLY unlucky here. I had a little hope on the flop ("C'mon king! ONE TIME! ONE TIME!") but was crushed on the turn! But based on the analyses I have seen in this thread, I think maybe I made the right call here after all. At the time, I was pretty convinced that it was a mistake, even though my gut and my stats suggested it was right.

I think my main concern was that I had good stats on how Villain 2 was playing in unopened pots (a LOT of limping and raising with ATC) but I didn't have a good read on how loosely he would call a pre-flop raise, especially such a big one. Because I didn't have that particular read, I thought it might have been a bit too risky to assume he had something weak based on his play in unopened pots. But then again, if he's that loose in unopened pots, what is the likelihood that he would play much tighter against a shove for less than a quarter of his stack? I might have been suffering from results-based thinking there.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ArtySmokesPS View Post
I don't know what they showed up with this time, but I believe I was in the same tournament. The really loose player didn't fold to any shoves, even when he had total junk. I remember doubling through him when I had A9 blind v blind. I raised, he shoved, I snap called off 13bb and he had 97o.
The maniac was a bit of a luckbox, as he arrived on the final table with the biggest stack, but he ended up being the bubble boy, out in 8th, because he was calling shoves by nits with hands like Q9s and K8o.
This was one of three tournaments I was playing at that time, and I know that I ran into you at one of them, so it is very likely that this was the tournament you were in. You had been moved to another table at this point (routine rebalancing) and I remember thinking that I was really glad that you weren't there to see my exit hand, because I was pretty embarrassed at the time.

Thanks all for the great analysis, this has been really helpful. I think it is especially good to see a hand get analyzed as being so borderline in a case like this one--when shoving and folding both have strong arguments in their favour, I learn a lot more!

-- CanuckMonkey


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