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2nl 6max zoom Needed To Lay Hand Down?

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2nl 6max zoom Needed To Lay Hand Down? - Sun Mar 17, 2013, 06:53 AM
(#1)
Nashy1996's Avatar
Since: Dec 2011
Posts: 164
Sorry, this hand was deleted by its owner

Hi Everyone,

I included me calling in this spot because i wanted to add that i didnt really consider the paired board here,and i think i should have given that the villian had stats of 12/5 over 76 hands and was shoving in this river spot.

I think i was so focused on making my flush that i didnt consider my opponents whole possible range here.
Maybe i could beat a King high flush but besides that i dont think this villian is taking this line without close to the nuts.

Thanks for your comments in advance
 
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Sun Mar 17, 2013, 10:36 AM
(#2)
RockerguyAA's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,089
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I think you played your hand very well until the river. On river when villain overbet shoves you have to take a moment and put yourself in his shoes before clicking the call button. Why is he shoving? Would he shove with K high flush on this paired board, or would he bet less? What would he think if he had a set? Maybe something like, "Hehe got a couple people drawing on turn. I bet someone has a straight or a flush and I'm sitting here with a full house. I got the nuts shove it!"

If you call here every time, you will run into worse hands occasionally if the villain is a 'fishy' player. Even so, I'd expect to lose often enough to make it better to just fold a flush here. Against tougher, regular type players I would expect to win never.
 
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Sun Mar 17, 2013, 12:16 PM
(#3)
Croyd93's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 639
Sup guys,

Quote:
Originally Posted by RockerguyAA View Post
I think you played your hand very well until the river. On river when villain overbet shoves you have to take a moment and put yourself in his shoes before clicking the call button. Why is he shoving? Would he shove with K high flush on this paired board, or would he bet less? What would he think if he had a set? Maybe something like, "Hehe got a couple people drawing on turn. I bet someone has a straight or a flush and I'm sitting here with a full house. I got the nuts shove it!"

If you call here every time, you will run into worse hands occasionally if the villain is a 'fishy' player. Even so, I'd expect to lose often enough to make it better to just fold a flush here. Against tougher, regular type players I would expect to win never.
I think this is a really good analysis, however I think we should call on the river. It's close but we will win a good amount of the time imo.

Given the odds we need around 40% equity to call and against a fairly tight range of 88-66,KdQd,Kd8c,Kd8h,Kd8s,Kc7d,Kd7c,Kd7h,Kd7s,Kh7d,Ks 7d Kd8s we have 50% equity. Also he may even shove lighter than this so we could be even firther ahead.


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Sun Mar 17, 2013, 12:59 PM
(#4)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,355
Hi guys,

Though we need to win this 40% of the time if we call on the river, I don't think we can call versus this particular player. The range Croyd assigned him doesn't really fit the hands that he'll call in the blinds with. (A 12/5 is fast-folding 85-90% of his big blinds, so hands like K7s and K8o are definitely not in his range).

Weak tight nits occasionally spaz out with overpairs on super-wet boards, but most of the time, their overbet shoves are with the near nuts. Especially since this villain is leading into two players, I think that most of the time he has a boat, quads, or even a straight flush (with 55) here. It's a value-shove hoping to get called by the nut flush.

The read is complicated because the hand was 4-way, villain was out of position and the flop was checked around. Weirdest of all is villain's small bet on the turn; a card that made a flush possible and also made a 1-card straight for 5x.
A made flush/straight might bet there, but when called in two places, he'd have to be worried you had a better flush or a nut draw. With 4 hearts on the board on the river, he can't shove the bare Kd and expect to be called by worse, so I'm pretty sure he's beating the Ad too.
Against a level 1 thinker ("I have a 10-high flush, all in!") you could call, but a 12/5 nitty set-miner has the goods here.


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Last edited by ArtySmokesPS; Sun Mar 17, 2013 at 01:01 PM..
 

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