Home / Community / Forum / Poker Education / Poker Education & Beginners Questions /

Probabilities And Confusion

Old
Default
Probabilities And Confusion - Tue Mar 19, 2013, 01:11 PM
(#1)
DV8666's Avatar
Since: Mar 2013
Posts: 17
WhiteStar
Ok so im really trying to up my game, im breaking even on average on games at the moment and I needed to find out what im doing wrong and why I am not winning more then im loosing.



So i thought I would look back at my hands, so I listed out all 80 of my hands from one session. Dont panic, im not showing you that chart

Long story from that chart is I see one badly played hand that I lost money on, one hand that I played well and made money on and then the rest are either trashed or I pick up blinds. The thing that concerns me is that I can see at least 3 hands that I have thrown away which actually would of crushed my opponents in hindsight, and I didnt play them.

I even checked out my stats and apparently im playing at most 15% of my hands with an agression factor of like 60% so to me thats a nice tight agressive style.

So I went back through my notes on my pokerschool lessons and deceided I needed to know more about probabilities.

Now I understand counting outs, and I understand the rule of 2 and 4. I even just watched a 15 minute video which just went into in depth mathmatics to how the rule of 2 and 4 works (yeah was a waste of my time that one) but I have come away from that video wondering if I understand the concept of probabilities as much as I should, or wish.

When you calculate your probabilites of making a drawing hand, you first count your outs, then use the rule of 2 + 4 to calculate the chances that the cards you need will land. Ok straight forward and do-able on the table, but this calculates the chances that you will get the cards you want.

What about if you have something already ? I lost a hand today where I put in a pot sized bet on a pair of Jacks and got called with a pair of Aces. Now there is always a chance that can happen, but what is the chances that Jacks will win in a situation.

I have watched at least two video's now, where someone is discussing a hand and says I have this hand, so I have a 60% chance of winning this hand, so its worth me betting. But surely this cant be the rule of 2 and 4, because thats not calculating the chances of winning the hand, thats calculating the chances your going to hit the hand you want. I even saw a video which discussed that certain hands pre-flop have this percentage chance of winning and so on, but then how does that work ?

At the moment im going by the pokerschools chart as to what hands are good or not when im unsure, and in some cases im not entirely sure its right.

//media.intellipoker.com/downlo...ghandchart.pdf

For example if you have suited connectors in a late position you will raise if everyone folds, which makes sense your trying to put pressure on the blinds. If someone else calls before it gets to you there just call for a cheap flop to see if you hit. But then it then also says that if your in the blinds position you can call if someone else calls, but if everyone folds you shouldnt put pressure on the big blind for the pot and you should fold ? This to me doesnt add up.

So really im looking to see if there is some math that im missing, so I can get away from relying on the chart so much and possibly up my game a bit so that im not breaking even. I understance that most of you probably just work to what you know works from experience, but I was just looking to see if there is something im missing.

I appologise for the long post
Thanks alot...
DV8

Last edited by DV8666; Tue Mar 19, 2013 at 01:13 PM.. Reason: double post
 
Old
Default
Tue Mar 19, 2013, 02:10 PM
(#2)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,809
(Super-Moderator)
BronzeStar
Hi DV8666!

When I'm ahead in the hand, I need to be sure that I bet enough so that the opps have -EV plays to try to outdraw me if they call. Due to this, my bets will normally be between 1/2 pot and a full pot-sized bet and that will be determined by the number of opps and the board texture.

One thing to look at. Are you open-limping or limping behind someone. If you're open-limping or betting too small, that could be a big part of your problem.

John (JWK24)


Super-Moderator



6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
Old
Default
Tue Mar 19, 2013, 02:55 PM
(#3)
DV8666's Avatar
Since: Mar 2013
Posts: 17
WhiteStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by JWK24 View Post
One thing to look at. Are you open-limping or limping behind someone. If you're open-limping or betting too small, that could be a big part of your problem.

John (JWK24)
It would depend on what I have. If I have a hand pre-flop then I would open raise with 3-4bb, I still feel that I could up this number to 5-6bb, but im noticing that no one seems to call me when I open for that amount, which means I get the blinds but when I have a hand I want people to call me so I have started to reduce my opening bet a little to try and get some money into the pot.

If im on a draw, im trying to control the pot and not bet anything, just call the hand. But I tend to only ever go for a draw if im in late position just to have a hope of seeing a cheap flop. If im in middle or early position then I just fold it, expecting to see someone bet a decent sized bet forcing me to fold me call anyhow.

Other then them two circumstances, im kinda stuck. Decent hands dont come along too often pre-flop, out of 80 hands today I got a pair of Kings once which I extracted as much value from as I could. Next best hand I had was QJs and I was out of position with it which wasnt a good start and someone opened with a 2bb bet and then someone bet over him with a further 6bb so I ended up folding it. Turns out with hindsight I would of got the flush on the flop ! That one was probably a bad call.

The one's I struggle with is face cards, im playing them like its a draw, not expecting them to be a strong hand. Weak Aces Kings Queens off suit or two facecards just dont appear all that strong so im not betting into them pre-flop as im wanting to see a cheap flop with a hand like this and hope it hits. Im not entirely sure im playing that kind of hand right. It does say in the lessons that AK is a monster pre-flop, but unless it hits the flop then its just A high so im wary of playing a hand like that too aggresively. Of course if im on the button with a hand like that I prefer to take the blinds then see a flop so ill bet into the blinds just to make sure I get something from the hand.

So yeah, I dont think im playing too passive but its always possible. Also im probably also concerned that my bankroll is a touch light to where it should be so im not really taking too many risks. I played my first low suited connector today, and thats only because I was on button stealing the blinds lol.

Last edited by DV8666; Tue Mar 19, 2013 at 02:57 PM..
 
Old
Default
Tue Mar 19, 2013, 04:40 PM
(#4)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,346
It sounds like you need to get hold of an equity calculator so you can make better estimates of your winning chances post-flop.
PSO also has an equity calculator at http://www.pokerschoolonline.com/articles/Oddscalc but you might prefer to play about with a downloadable app for offline use.
If you search Google for Pokerstove or Equilab, you can download one for free.

The way I practice with them is to give myself a hand (say AK) and then assign a range to villian, create a random flop, and then hit the EVALUATE button.

As an example,
Lets say hero has AsKd and the flop is Kc 7h Jh.
We have top pair, top kicker, and when we bet it, we only expect to get action from a TAG villain with decent kings (KJ+), sets, OESDs (with QT), and nut flush draws. Let's say he didn't 3-bet pre-flop, so AK and KK are not in his range. His "continuance" range on this flop is therefore: JJ,KJs+,QTs,AhQh,AhTh,Ah9h,Ah8h,Ah6h,Ah5h,Ah4h,Ah3 h,Ah2h,KJo+,QTo

How does our hand fare against that range, on this particular flop? I hit the Evaluate button and this is the result:
Board: J:heart:7:heart:K:club:
       Equity     Win     Tie
Hero    56.73%  56.48%   0.25% { AsKd }
Vill     43.27%  43.02%   0.25% { JJ, KJs+, QTs, AhQh, AhTh, Ah9h, Ah8h, Ah6h, Ah5h, Ah4h, Ah3h, Ah2h, KJo+, QTo }

Most of the time, we are ahead, and expect to have the best hand at showdown 57% of the time. That's our equity. We can therefore make a fairly large c-bet, expecting to get called by worse (lots of draws and worse kings). Since villain is almost never paying us off on the river if his draw misses, we want to get value on the early streets when he's more likely to call, but doesn't have the immediate odds to do so. If he raises us, then we have to decide if he only does this with 2pr+, or if he does it with the nut flush draw too. (Having notes is crucial here).

We'll make a bet for value, and then further narrow villain's range based on the cards that hit on subsequent streets and the betting action.

If you play about with an equity calculator you'll probably be surprised at just how much equity you have with certain hands (e.g. a set can have 97% equity versus top pair) and how little with others (an overpair sometimes is a slight underdog vs a flush draw and two overs).

Good luck!


Bracelet Winner
 
Old
Default
Tue Mar 19, 2013, 10:03 PM
(#5)
TrumpinJoe's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 4,557
Whether or not you would have won at showdown is 100% meaningless. Don't get caught up in results oriented thinking. It's one of the worst mind games in poker. Focus on good decisions. Just because you would have won this time by getting involved in a - EV situation it's still - EV so avoid it like the plague. QJs facing a 3-bet preflop is an instant fold. You made a good decision and those are +EV!

GOOD DECISIONS!
 
Old
Default
Wed Mar 20, 2013, 10:56 AM
(#6)
mtnestegg's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,336
Quote:
Originally Posted by TrumpinJoe View Post
Whether or not you would have won at showdown is 100% meaningless. Don't get caught up in results oriented thinking. It's one of the worst mind games in poker. Focus on good decisions. Just because you would have won this time by getting involved in a - EV situation it's still - EV so avoid it like the plague. QJs facing a 3-bet preflop is an instant fold. You made a good decision and those are +EV!

GOOD DECISIONS!
First, +1 this^^^^^
Second, if you want to learn poker probabilities, you can simply google search "poker probabilities" in many cases math isn't necessary. Why? Because the math invariably has already been done for you by someone else, and all you have to do is memorize or reference these more common probabilities.
My advice would be to study the answers the poker community has already given, and not necessarily the calcs it takes to achieve those answers.


May the tinfoil protect you. MT
 

Getting PokerStars is easy: download and install the PokerStars game software, create your free player account, and validate your email address. Clicking on the download poker button will lead to the installation of compatible poker software on your PC of 51.7 MB, which will enable you to register and play poker on the PokerStars platform. To uninstall PokerStars use the Windows uninstaller: click Start > Control Panel and then select Add or Remove programs > Select PokerStars and click Uninstall or Remove.

Copyright (c) PokerSchoolOnline.com. All rights reserved, Rational Group, Douglas Bay Complex, King Edward Road, Onchan, Isle of Man, IM3 1DZ. You can email us on support@pokerschoolonline.com