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NL2, AKs, villains reraises flop. gutshot/flushdraw

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NL2, AKs, villains reraises flop. gutshot/flushdraw - Wed Mar 20, 2013, 06:30 AM
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Hades Hbc's Avatar
Since: Feb 2013
Posts: 1


I was wondering wether my play is correct on the flop and turn.
Were my calls justified or should I've folded?
 
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Wed Mar 20, 2013, 09:10 AM
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ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,346
Hi Hades,
Welcome to the forum.

Pre-flop is standard, a 3bb raise in EP, and a call by the button. At this point, I'm already putting villain on a range of small/medium pairs and suited connectors. In the same way that I might put an EP open on AK and big pairs, I tend to put a button caller on hands like JTs and 77.

On the flop, you have a gutshot and two overs, but this flop smashes villain's range. JTs obviously has top two here. 77 missed, but similar hands like 88/99 have an OESD or a set. So when I'm contemplating a c-bet here, I'm not expecting villain to fold very often. For that reason, I'm not going to make a pot-sized bet, as all that does is bloat the pot when there's a good chance I'm behind.
When villain raises, you have to give him credit for a strong made hand (2pr, set, straight), or very good draw or pair+draw combo. Villain's raise is barely more than a minraise, but at this point you probably only have 4 outs (queens), as I don't think making top pair will be enough very often. So I'd fold to this raise.
As played, you called the raise, and picked up a flush draw on the turn, so you've gained some outs. Checking is the right play, and then it's a matter of comparing pot odds to the odds against you hitting the nuts, as you'll be all in if you call.
You need to call 62c into a pot that will eventually total 2.15. This means you need 62/215 = 28.8% equity.
Another way to look at it is the pot lays 153:62 (current pot+vill's bet : price of call) which is about 2.5 to 1.

Now lets count your outs to work out your equity. There are 9 spades that will give you the nut flush, and there are 3 more queens that will give you the Broadway straight. So you have 12 outs. Using the rule of 4 and 2, we multiply the outs by 2, because we're only seeing one more card. 12*2 = 24%. So it looks like you're only going to make the nut straight/flush 24% of the time, but the pot lays odds that require you to win almost 29% of the time. If you consider that villain might have a set, then some of your outs are not outs at all. If villain has a set of 9s, then the jack or ten of spades will give you the nut flush, but give villain a full house.
So it's close here, but it's actually a fold on the turn. You need 29% equity to call, but are likely to have just 23% or so.

Hope this helps.
Cheers, Arty


Bracelet Winner

Last edited by ArtySmokesPS; Wed Mar 20, 2013 at 09:17 AM..
 
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Wed Mar 20, 2013, 10:05 AM
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HokyPokyToo's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 4,901
Hi Hades Hbc,

Welcome to PokerSchoolOnline! Here is a link to help familiarize you with all the features and services available at PSO. Please feel free to look around the forum and post any comments or questions you may have.
Good luck at the tables!

Joss


2 Time Bracelet Winner


 

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