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2nl 6max zoom-Possibly Check Call River?

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2nl 6max zoom-Possibly Check Call River? - Wed Mar 20, 2013, 07:05 AM
(#1)
Nashy1996's Avatar
Since: Dec 2011
Posts: 164
Sorry, this hand was deleted by its owner


Hi Everyone,

Not sure how i could have avoided this spot given that when the villian re-raises on the river im not really beating much,but i had too much invested to get away from it.

The villian has stats of 25/13 3bet%3 and had raised the turn 1 of 12 times over 336 hands.

They raise me on the turn and i figure my KK are probably no good here against this opponent but im getting almost 5-1 and need 17% to call,so with my second nut draw i think it was correct.

On the the river i make my flush and lead out for value.later i questioned weather im getting called by worse very often on this board(Jh maybe) but i make my hand and am not folding now,and as i said earlier the villian raises and im a little worried.

What you think?
 
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Wed Mar 20, 2013, 02:36 PM
(#2)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,505
(Head Trainer)
Hi Nashy,

This is a really easy fold imo. You're making a very big river bet, for half your remaining stack, and he's putting you the rest of the way in? I think we are getting shown the Ah at least almost all the time here. If he had a J high flush or worse he would tend to just call, concerned that WE have the Ah or Kh. I would check and call a bet on the river here as it seems unlikely to get called by worse when we lead the 4th heart. As played we basically only have a bluff catcher.

Quote:
but i had too much invested to get away from it.
This thought is a big leak. The money in the pot is already gone, there's no reason to throw good money after bad. Here is the river math: We have to call .72c more to win a final pot of 4.03, so we need to be good 18% of the time for a call to be profitable. Do we think the villain is bluffing ~ 1 time in 5? I think the answer is no, I'd be surprised if he's bluffing even 1 time in 20 in a spot like this.


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Thu Mar 21, 2013, 01:15 AM
(#3)
Nashy1996's Avatar
Since: Dec 2011
Posts: 164
Thanks Dave!! thats massively helpful especially the info on river calls.i needed to hear that

Thanks again
 

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