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10NL 6 Max Boat Turn Line

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10NL 6 Max Boat Turn Line - Wed Mar 20, 2013, 10:21 PM
(#1)
TheAwesomeNW's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 474
Villain's 23/13, AF 1.8 over 240 hands. CO Stl: 32%(28), F3B: 0%(2), Flop FCB: 58%(12), Flop FCB 3betpot: 50%(2), Turn BVMCB Total: 20%(5)



We flop an overpair so I cbet for value for protection and value from mid PPs 88, 99, overcards like AK, AQ which wanted to float.

Turn comes a good barreling card. But I decided to check since I don't see any worse except for AT which will call a Turn bet. Keep his bluff range. I was prepared to call a 1/3 to 1/2 pot BVMCB, however, he bets 3/4 pot. Could be AQ, TT, QQ+. Is it a fold?

And should I have bet/folded this Turn, or is check/calling a reasonable bet size better? Thanks!

Last edited by TheAwesomeNW; Wed Mar 20, 2013 at 10:31 PM..
 
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Wed Mar 20, 2013, 10:22 PM
(#2)
TheAwesomeNW's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 474
Sry, wrong title, didn't omit the word "Boat"!
 
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Wed Mar 20, 2013, 11:29 PM
(#3)
DivorcedDuck's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 165
his preflop range is something like 77+, A9s+, ATo+, KQ. if he´s really flatting any 3bet in position vs the blinds it´s his range postflop too. may be deduct KQ, 77. yes i give him a that tight range because it´s a 3bet pot and stats aren´t solid enough to be more than a tendency. if he´s on flop with hands like KT+, QT+, JTs i´m perfectly happy with that as it isn´t changing the overall ratio between draws, bluffs and madehands...

the board is pretty much dry and only the T hit his range. as he´s fairly aggressive i expect him to raise a set/overpair on flop or at latest on turn anyway and from AT you get a ton of value by c-betting. if he has a tendency to be a station you should expect him to cold call on flop with any two overs. the Q on turn hits this range but an A would´ve been worse.

c/c is a bad line here as you max the value of a slowplayed overpair/set and you lose initiative so you can´t fold when priced in. in addition you give AT the chance to check behind and therefore you lose money too, but most important we have a strong reason to believe that villain has at least a tendency to be a fishy station so it´s morelikely to see him checking behind with AJ, 88, 99. AQ has you beat and will for sure bet but may be raise the turn if it´s c-betted as villain obv. isn´t believing that much in the strength of a 3bet/cbet which gives you the possibility to fold. bluffing isn´t simply that likely by a fish in a 3bet pot vs. a very strong perceived range and if ever i see him bluffing only with AK.

as played call and c/c river max half pot but fold to an A or K. best line imo b/f half pot and b/f 1/3 pot on river but to an A or K you should play c/f.

edit: why did you 3bet pre?

Last edited by DivorcedDuck; Wed Mar 20, 2013 at 11:57 PM..
 
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Wed Mar 20, 2013, 11:39 PM
(#4)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,517
(Head Trainer)
Hi TANW,

I don't think this is a good barreling card for us... you said you think it is but then you didn't barrel.

I think checking is fine here, if we are good I would expect the turn to go check/check quite a bit as this guy is not real aggro post. If he bets the turn small I would continue, but when he bets big I would fold now, I think we are often beat in this spot, and can't really call more action on the river.

If we thought the guy would turn worse pairs into a bluff here then I would much prefer to bet/fold the turn, but his whole limited stat line indicates passive streaks, not aggressive ones (except CO steal), so I'm less concerned about being bet off the best hand when we check to him.


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Thu Mar 21, 2013, 03:17 AM
(#5)
DivorcedDuck's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 165
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheLangolier View Post
Hi TANW,

I don't think this is a good barreling card for us... you said you think it is but then you didn't barrel.

I think checking is fine here, if we are good I would expect the turn to go check/check quite a bit as this guy is not real aggro post. If he bets the turn small I would continue, but when he bets big I would fold now, I think we are often beat in this spot, and can't really call more action on the river.

If we thought the guy would turn worse pairs into a bluff here then I would much prefer to bet/fold the turn, but his whole limited stat line indicates passive streaks, not aggressive ones (except CO steal), so I'm less concerned about being bet off the best hand when we check to him.
just thought through this and there are a few things i don´t get actually.

i agree that it´s close. i think it´s ~50:50 to win the hand but i think hero has two points to his advantage which are initiative and it´s a 3bet pot. he has a strong percieved range, villain is passive on flop and therefore hero has still some fold equity on turn (there´s some money in the pot to back this).

pealing the flop is one thing but in a 3bet pot the turn normally is played very honest on micros. that´s why i don´t see villain bluffing here (i gave him only AK as bluffing range if ever), so i don´t understand how you come to the point to play c/c turn as you mentioned correct that the river would be a c/f in most cases. it seems to me like pushing villain into the right direction and villain isn´t that passive that hero can´t get into trouble this way.

the second point i don´t get is how you plan to exploit a villain with tendencies to float by b/f?

i suggested b/f as line for turn/river (i would agree to c/c river too) because in my eyes it´s 50:50 between a gut shot and two overs or second pair with top kicker, which i believe is both tough to fold for a fish and the whole value range on the other side, but i would discount some AA/KK as villain isn´t totally passive, especially pre.

to sum it up...

a) we either have to win the hand on turn or to give it up most of the time on river and i don´t see how to win the hand by c/c turn. i think it´s a flip vs. villain on turn but as it´s a 3bet pot hero is prized in to a thin value bet.

b) if villain is more aggro i would be happy about the additional value added to the pot and give him the chance to do so as the spot is otherwise pretty close.

btw. the CO Stl: 32%(28) is misleading in my eyes. it´s 28 orbits, yes, but you know the stat shows the steal possibilites only (it wasn´t folded around to him all 28 orbits when he was in CO for sure). dunno anything about the table dynamic or if it was zoom so the total number of steals is mostlikely something between 3-6 depending on how lose or tight the preflop action was. but what does it change? add 55-77, KQ, KJs and QJs to villains range for tight action if you like to, discount the ton of combos you block with JJ and you´re down to the same result which you have when you give him a value range only...

Last edited by DivorcedDuck; Thu Mar 21, 2013 at 03:21 AM..
 
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Thu Mar 21, 2013, 09:30 AM
(#6)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,517
(Head Trainer)
Hi Duck

Quote:
so i don´t understand how you come to the point to play c/c turn as you mentioned correct that the river would be a c/f in most cases. it seems to me like pushing villain into the right direction and villain isn´t that passive that hero can´t get into trouble this way.
I agree you shouldn't understand that... but I didn't say c/c the turn, I said I would check and fold to his big bet. If he bets small that is often going to be a weaker 1 pair hand taking a stab and not wanting to give AK a free card... that's the bet I would c/c as I think we're still good often enough with a good price, and I expect the river to go check/check a lot when we are in fact still good (like you, I don't think he'll be bluffing).

I think we had a bit of a different read, in your original reply you said "as he´s fairly aggressive", but I think the stats we have don't indicate this. The only fairly aggressive stat is the cut off steal % but in terms of an over all player profile that doesn't carry too much weight with me as so many players steal these days. The rest of his stat line indicates normally not too aggressive imo:

23/13, fairly passive
AF 1.8, fairly passive
Turn BVMCB 2/5 times, fairly passive (an aggressive floater should be 3+ times here for sure)


Quote:
the second point i don´t get is how you plan to exploit a villain with tendencies to float by b/f?
If a villain floats the flop a lot, barreling the turn prevents him from executing the float on the turn. If he likes to float 2 streets (which is rarer for sure), he will call the turn barrel if he's choosing to double floating this spot. A raise by such a player and we can feel pretty comfortable that we are beat.

Quote:
btw. the CO Stl: 32%(28) is misleading in my eyes. it´s 28 orbits, yes, but you know the stat shows the steal possibilities only (it wasn´t folded around to him all 28 orbits when he was in CO for sure).
TANW can confirm what he's giving us, but a stat quoted like this if directly from the tracker should be meaning 28 opportunities, yes 28 times it was folded to him in the cut off. This was not zoom so there are likely some short handed tables contributing to that number (I agree that would seem high for zoom or always full tables... 240 total hands / 6 players = 40 orbits of cut off position, it's hard to see UTG and UTG+1 folding 28/40 times unless they are nits, which I guess is then possible even always 6 handed). Certainly if 5 handed some of the time this number of opportunities is very possible.


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Thu Mar 21, 2013, 09:36 AM
(#7)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,363
Quote:
Originally Posted by DivorcedDuck View Post
btw. the CO Stl: 32%(28) is misleading in my eyes. it´s 28 orbits, yes, but you know the stat shows the steal possibilites only (it wasn´t folded around to him all 28 orbits when he was in CO for sure).
FYI, the number in brackets is the number of opportunities, not the number of orbits.
TheAwesomeNW has 240 hands on this villain. That's 40 orbits. It was folded to the villain in the cutoff 28 times, and he opened in that seat 9 times, for a CO Steal of 32%.

EDIT: Dave got there first.


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Thu Mar 21, 2013, 11:20 AM
(#8)
DivorcedDuck's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 165
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheLangolier View Post
23/13, fairly passive
AF 1.8, fairly passive
so the glass is either half full or half empty... i wrote fairly aggro because for a fish his AF is border lined in my eyes (i´m stll practicing your language ).


Quote:
TANW can confirm what he's giving us, but a stat quoted like this if directly from the tracker should be meaning 28 opportunities, yes 28 times it was folded to him in the cut off. This was not zoom so there are likely some short handed tables contributing to that number (I agree that would seem high for zoom or always full tables... 240 total hands / 6 players = 40 orbits of cut off position, it's hard to see UTG and UTG+1 folding 28/40 times unless they are nits, which I guess is then possible even always 6 handed). Certainly if 5 handed some of the time this number of opportunities is very possible.
i´m still not sure about that. the point is the number seems unusual to me and i don´t use that stat, simply because i don´t have enough data of most players. if the table dynamic was the way that it was possible what you described we have to weight the other stats different too i think, because in that case the players he had position on were mostlikely very aggressive and very nitty.

that´s the dilemma with all those stats... you have to know exactly what they are doing and you can read them in many ways, but empirical proof has still it´s worth. 240 hands, especially as it wasn´t zoom is so much time to pick up reads that i always ask myself why noone writes anything about this when it comes to a hand discussion.

@Arty you have decent enough implieds to get me one day!

Last edited by DivorcedDuck; Thu Mar 21, 2013 at 11:48 AM..
 
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Thu Mar 21, 2013, 11:30 PM
(#9)
TheAwesomeNW's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 474
Thx all!! It's certainly been an interesting discussion. Duck, yea the stats meant that he opened 9/28 times when folded to him at CO. The 32% CO Stl compared to his 23/13 stats meant that his opening range at CO is much wider than usual, thus I decided to 3bet him for value. I didn't have specific notes on him as I didn't observe him doing anything out of line. Only note taken was he got AK all-in preflop vs shortstack

I folded to his large bet so we never got to see his hand.
 

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