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2nl 6max zoom Checking flop?

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2nl 6max zoom Checking flop? - Thu Mar 21, 2013, 08:07 AM
(#1)
Nashy1996's Avatar
Since: Dec 2011
Posts: 164
Sorry, this hand was deleted by its owner

Hi Everyone,

First of all i didnt mean to min raise here i misclicked
i get 3bet by an opponent with stats of 13/13 3bet6% over 48hands, then a flat caller in the bb but i dont have much info on this villian with 20/0 over 10 hands.

I decided to flat call the 3bet keeping the open raisers range as wide as i could here,plus with the bb calling the pot to stack ratio was pretty low.
Its very much an action flop, after the hand i quickly thought i shouldnt be leading out here,im getting raised so often on this board and put in a tough spot.
The original raiser folds and the bb caller shoves,and i dont think im ever really ahead here (maybe slightly ahead of some draws) or have playable equity going forward.
Check call once or check fold to solid bet?

What would you do here overall?

Last edited by Nashy1996; Thu Mar 21, 2013 at 08:18 AM.. Reason: adding something
 
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Thu Mar 21, 2013, 06:51 PM
(#2)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,346
Hi Nashy,
Villain's 3-bet is a little scary as you opened UTG, but then he might have thought your misclick repped a weak hand, so he tried to isolate you.
Flatting when it comes back to you is sort of OK, because if you 4-bet, you're likely to get shoved on by QQ+. Having said that, a 4-bet by you can look immensely strong, and get another AK (plus hands like JJ-TT) to lay down.
I don't like the lead out on the flop, for the reasons you said. The pot is already quite big and villains are relatively short, so I'd check-call anything up to 65% of pot or so.
When you donkbet this and get shoved on, your best hope is a usually a chop with another AK, but villain can also have AA/KK/QQ/TT/KQ which have you crushed. I guess he might be jamming JJ for the OESD (or KJ for TP+draw) and leveraging fold equity, but I can't see how calling it off will be profitable in the long run, especially without reads/notes.
The pot odds require you to have 39% equity. I think you're a bit short of that, so would fold here.

Cheers,
Arty


Bracelet Winner
 
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Thu Mar 21, 2013, 07:01 PM
(#3)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,346
EDIT: I just put villain's likely range into Equilab (including a couple of combo NFD+gutters), and it turns out you have over 43% equity here, so the call is just above break even.
It kind of surprised me how much equity AK has even against strong made hands (inc 2 prs and straights) on this board.

Board: KhQhTc
Equity Win Tie
Hero 44.10% 36.69% 7.41% { AKo }
Vill 55.90% 48.49% 7.41% { TT+, AJs+, KJs-KTs, QTs, AhTh, Ah9h, AJo+, KJo-KTo, QTo }


(Note that you'll only win 37%, but there are lots of chopped pot possibilities).


Bracelet Winner

Last edited by ArtySmokesPS; Thu Mar 21, 2013 at 07:06 PM..
 
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Thu Mar 21, 2013, 09:56 PM
(#4)
Nashy1996's Avatar
Since: Dec 2011
Posts: 164
Thanks Arty That equity calculation is really interesting,i certainly didnt think i would have just above break even equity there.
Theres so many different combos in this spot!
Thanks
 
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Fri Mar 22, 2013, 09:32 AM
(#5)
GarethC23's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,273
I think you might be doing better here if you just four-bet shoved preflop.
 

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