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How can I win if this keeps happening

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How can I win if this keeps happening - Thu Mar 21, 2013, 08:11 PM
(#1)
Tagging's Avatar
Since: Jan 2011
Posts: 41
100k Privilage free roll



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Thu Mar 21, 2013, 10:06 PM
(#2)
ChewMe1's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 574
Hey Tagging

The 72o getting there is a pretty grim site to say the least!
Upon further investigation I realized your not probably not as big of a favorite to win the hand as you may think.

I ran it through pokerstove and here are the numbers

72o has 12% equity
AJo has 27% equity
KK has 61% equity

So on average your Kings will hold up around 6 times out of 10!

Freerolls can be very, very frustrating games at times.

Cheers, Chris.
 
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Fri Mar 22, 2013, 01:35 PM
(#3)
Tagging's Avatar
Since: Jan 2011
Posts: 41
Quote:
Originally Posted by ChewMe1 View Post
Hey Tagging


I ran it through pokerstove and here are the numbers

72o has 12% equity
AJo has 27% equity
KK has 61% equity

So on average your Kings will hold up around 6 times out of 10!

Freerolls can be very, very frustrating games at times.

Cheers, Chris.
Thanks Chris, although its not just in freerolls this is happening lol


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Fri Mar 22, 2013, 01:56 PM
(#4)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,353
Hi Tagging,

While it's frustrating when bad players get their money in as a big underdog and suck out, in the long run it's great that they go all in with garbage, as that's how we make money.
If you were in a sports betting shop, and you were told you could get 2-1 on your money in a race where your "horse" will win 60% of the time, you'd definitely take the bet. I mean, who wouldn't? (2-1 pot odds means you only need 33% equity). I'd happily take 50/50 flips all day if I was contributing less than 50% of the pot, or more than doubling up each time I won.
Short-term variance can be very tilting, and have a big effect on your bankroll, which is why it's recommended to have many buy-ins to cope with runs of bad luck. In the long run, if you get your money in as a (big) favourite, then you WILL make money.

Better luck in future!


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Fri Mar 22, 2013, 02:10 PM
(#5)
EdinFreeMan's Avatar
Since: Feb 2010
Posts: 4,540
Similar example (few more opps = massive pot)

Sorry, this hand was deleted by its owner

There seem to be so many ways to lose with KK 3 handed (or more) - the 'A+anyX' players always seem to come along then spike that A nearly every time - other small pairs spike their sets, suited cards hit a flush, or trash hands get one card shoed into a straight.

It always looks horrible, but in the long run, those 60%ish equity spots to treble your stack will get you into good shape. I play these privilege freerolls and I am happy when I get my KK in 3-ways versus even stacks and just shrugging when I run into AA or get stacked by worse hands.

BTW the above was first hand of an Open Skill League game - so just a loss of league points - and I would do the same every time given the chance.

Good luck

Ed fom Edinburgh - EdinFreeMan

Last edited by EdinFreeMan; Fri Mar 22, 2013 at 02:15 PM..
 
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Fri Mar 22, 2013, 05:33 PM
(#6)
Moxie Pip's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,853
Apologies to the OP'er for the hijack,but it needed to be said.

Tagging,the answer to your question (rhetorical as I think it is...) is to just keep letting people make dumb plays like this and keep getting it in good. It'll go your way over the long haul if you do,but the key is the LONG HAUL. Short sample variance happens,be it 10K hands in a 1 million hand sample or 10 hands in a 1000 hand sample. The bigger the sample the more the numbers move to the norm.

This is why proper BRM is key,to stay in the game.

Good luck/better decisions.
 
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Sat Mar 23, 2013, 07:29 AM
(#7)
Tagging's Avatar
Since: Jan 2011
Posts: 41
Quote:
Originally Posted by ArtySmokesPS View Post
Hi Tagging,

While it's frustrating when bad players get their money in as a big underdog and suck out, in the long run it's great that they go all in with garbage, as that's how we make money.
If you were in a sports betting shop, and you were told you could get 2-1 on your money in a race where your "horse" will win 60% of the time, you'd definitely take the bet. I mean, who wouldn't? (2-1 pot odds means you only need 33% equity). I'd happily take 50/50 flips all day if I was contributing less than 50% of the pot, or more than doubling up each time I won.
Short-term variance can be very tilting, and have a big effect on your bankroll, which is why it's recommended to have many buy-ins to cope with runs of bad luck. In the long run, if you get your money in as a (big) favourite, then you WILL make money.

Better luck in future!
I am glad that i am making the right decision then. Thank you for the advice


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Sat Mar 23, 2013, 07:29 AM
(#8)
Tagging's Avatar
Since: Jan 2011
Posts: 41
Quote:
Originally Posted by Moxie Pip View Post
Apologies to the OP'er for the hijack,but it needed to be said.

Tagging,the answer to your question (rhetorical as I think it is...) is to just keep letting people make dumb plays like this and keep getting it in good. It'll go your way over the long haul if you do,but the key is the LONG HAUL. Short sample variance happens,be it 10K hands in a 1 million hand sample or 10 hands in a 1000 hand sample. The bigger the sample the more the numbers move to the norm.

This is why proper BRM is key,to stay in the game.

Good luck/better decisions.

I am trying very hard to make the right decisions at the right time. Thank you for the advice


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Sat Mar 23, 2013, 07:31 AM
(#9)
Tagging's Avatar
Since: Jan 2011
Posts: 41
Quote:
Originally Posted by EdinFreeMan View Post
Similar example (few more opps = massive pot)

Sorry, this hand was deleted by its owner

There seem to be so many ways to lose with KK 3 handed (or more) - the 'A+anyX' players always seem to come along then spike that A nearly every time - other small pairs spike their sets, suited cards hit a flush, or trash hands get one card shoed into a straight.

It always looks horrible, but in the long run, those 60%ish equity spots to treble your stack will get you into good shape. I play these privilege freerolls and I am happy when I get my KK in 3-ways versus even stacks and just shrugging when I run into AA or get stacked by worse hands.

BTW the above was first hand of an Open Skill League game - so just a loss of league points - and I would do the same every time given the chance.

Good luck

Ed fom Edinburgh - EdinFreeMan
thank you for that. Glad to see i am not the only one


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Sat Mar 23, 2013, 07:32 AM
(#10)
Tagging's Avatar
Since: Jan 2011
Posts: 41
Quote:
Originally Posted by Moxie Pip View Post
Apologies to the OP'er for the hijack,but it needed to be said.

Tagging,the answer to your question (rhetorical as I think it is...) is to just keep letting people make dumb plays like this and keep getting it in good. It'll go your way over the long haul if you do,but the key is the LONG HAUL. Short sample variance happens,be it 10K hands in a 1 million hand sample or 10 hands in a 1000 hand sample. The bigger the sample the more the numbers move to the norm.

This is why proper BRM is key,to stay in the game.

Good luck/better decisions.
I shall keep the faith that it will always work out for the better in the long term


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Sat Mar 23, 2013, 10:05 AM
(#11)
ronh1967's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 376
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tagging View Post
100k Privilage free roll

iv played a few off these 100k free rolls and i think theres rebuys in these and most pots that iv seen in these tournies are multi pots,so if you play in this tournie again be prepared to rebuy and i think your allowed 3rebuys if i remember correctly.also use one rebuy at the start to double your stack,good luck in the next tournie or cash game to play in
 
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Mon Mar 25, 2013, 05:09 AM
(#12)
bhoylegend's Avatar
Since: Jun 2012
Posts: 2,261
I disagree with re-buying in a free roll like these. To make profit you nearly need to final table. With these tourneys being so bad gameplay wise you have to be lucky to get anywhere remotely close to that so it is wasting money. If you play these with the intention of re-buying you are wasting money. Play $0.25c games instead for better ROI/ITM.
 
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Mon Mar 25, 2013, 04:10 PM
(#13)
Moxie Pip's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,853
Quote:
Originally Posted by bhoylegend View Post
I disagree with re-buying in a free roll like these. To make profit you nearly need to final table. With these tourneys being so bad gameplay wise you have to be lucky to get anywhere remotely close to that so it is wasting money. If you play these with the intention of re-buying you are wasting money. Play $0.25c games instead for better ROI/ITM.

I'm with bhoy here. When and if US players get back on Stars I would definitely make the deposit to be able to play these,but would eschew taking the re-buy and add-on options and just play them as a straight freeroll.

Reason being...the rebuys and add-on are .30 each and if you look at the tourney payout structure you're going to have to get to the 6th or 7th payout level above min-cashing to just break even if you take either the rebuy or add-on. Take both and you have to run to the top 900 in a field of 23 to 25k. Too much of a stretch. These have great value if you can grind out a deep run or 2 and are even worth the effort if you just string together a bunch of min-cashes. But NOT if you spew $ by re-buying and adding on. Let other players bloat the $ pool.

I know that there is an argument to be made that with so many bad players in these we can feel we'll have a significant skill edge over most of the field so we SHOULD rebuy as we want to stay in a game where we have a skill edge.

Problem with that is...say you bust out on Level 5,with 50/100 blinds and 20 chip antes...that's a 330 chip commitment from you to play one full orbit around the table at that blind level,so you would be rebuying to have a stack of less than M4. And the blinds are going up every 8 minutes. With a structure this fast a lot of our skill edge is blunted. I realize one could say that one will often,indeed most times,be rebuying to be on a short stack in most $ rebuy games,as they have turbo and accelerated turbo structures too,but if one rebuys a couple times and takes the add-on in those the payout structure still sets up for them to more than double their money for a min-cash. That's a BIG difference.

bhoy also mentions the .25 games as a better investment than paying .30 to do rebuys and/or add-ons in the privilege freerolls. A BIG yes to that...and keep in mind that for freeze out MTT structures there is a .25 ($100) added MTT that runs every day at 10PM EST and 3 .10 ($50 added) Turbo MTT's at 4AM,10AM and 4PM EST every day. These are great value plays due to the added money (it's the equivalent of 400 and 500 runners paying into the prize pool who don't actually exist...)and should not be missed by anyone on a starting BR.

Last edited by Moxie Pip; Mon Mar 25, 2013 at 04:13 PM..
 
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Mon Mar 25, 2013, 05:02 PM
(#14)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,824
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Moxie Pip View Post
I'm with bhoy here. When and if US players get back on Stars I would definitely make the deposit to be able to play these,but would eschew taking the re-buy and add-on options and just play them as a straight freeroll.
I'm in total agreement with Moxie on this one. I'll be doing the exact same thing if we're able to get back someday.

John (JWK24)


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