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10NL 6 Max Profitable Delayed Cbet?

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10NL 6 Max Profitable Delayed Cbet? - Fri Mar 22, 2013, 12:06 AM
(#1)
TheAwesomeNW's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 474
First hand when I sat down. New Villains.



As played, I went for the delayed cbet. Without reads, is it profitable to take a stab after both checked? If so, is my bet-sizing right?

And usually in such spots when we miss in multi-way 3bet pot, is check-folding the Flop the default line?
 
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Fri Mar 22, 2013, 12:03 PM
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GarethC23's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,273
Hey Awesome

This is a pretty complicated hand, despite appearances. Going to talk about three streets.

Preflop: it is not so clear you should three-bet here. First, both villains are unkown, and one opens UTG. The other, really deep, calls in SB. Because they are so deep the SB might not three-bet a lot of decently strong hands here. In any case, we have no reason to suspect his range is weak. We don't have any reason to think UTG's range is going to fold a lot preflop, which constitutes a decent portion of our profit in 3b'ing this hand.

Moreover, flatting could be quite profitable. So I am not going to make a case that 3b'ing is -EV. I think it is +EV, in fact. But it is quite reasonable to think that calling could have a higher +EV than 3b'ing, to keep both player's ranges wide, for deception, from which to extract a large amount of value with your hand when you flop effectively.

Flop: I think the pot is larger and there is a big incentive for us to c-bet to take it down. A 60% pot bet only needs to get through 37.5% of the time to break even and I think we can probably manage that in this spot. It is also going to solve some of our problems in seeing a turn like this. If we get called we know we are behind, we are never going to be bluffed if we bet, we could be if we check.

Turn: I think you want to stab 2.50 here. Your line looks very weak with this sizing. It is a lot closer spot. I don't think you are folding any pairs out really. If you c-bet flop you can avoid a tight spot like this.
 
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Sat Mar 23, 2013, 12:06 AM
(#3)
TheAwesomeNW's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 474
Thanks Gareth! Yea I was deciding between squeezing and flatting here. Seems like flatting is better We took it down with this delayed cbet, but like you said betting the Flop has more fold equity and gives us better info
 

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