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10NL 6 Max Comfortable Fold? Help with Ranging

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10NL 6 Max Comfortable Fold? Help with Ranging - Fri Mar 22, 2013, 01:47 AM
(#1)
TheAwesomeNW's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 474
V2's 25/17, AF:1.4 over 215 hands. Flop CB: 29%(14), Flop Fold to Donkbet: 17%(6), Flop Raise Donkbet: 33%(6), Turn CB: 100%(3), River CB: 100%(1)

No notes except low Flop CB%



I flatted the PFR as I wanted to play in position with UTG limper. Flop call was fishy as I convinced myself I had 2 overs, gutshot + backdoor flush draw.

As played, OTR it's yucks when passive Villain shoves. Our odds are 1.5:1 (40%)

Best case scenario he's shoving a wide range of trips, straight and boats:
{ KK+, TT, 88, A8s, QJs, T8s, 98s, 87s, A8o, QJo, 98o, 87o }we're 49% to win

If we remove non-suited hands:
{ KK+, TT, 88, A8s, QJs, T8s, 98s, 87s } we're 28%.

If we're very optimistic to include ATs and AKs:
{ KK+, TT, 88, AKs, ATs, A8s, QJs, T8s, 98s, 87s } we're 40%.

Like to know how everyone will range him. Is it likely that he'll only shove with a boat due to his low AF? Thanks!
 
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Fri Mar 22, 2013, 03:47 AM
(#2)
Mind_V_Gap's Avatar
Since: Oct 2012
Posts: 34
BronzeStar
he's not a bluffing player, call flop is ok turn I think we're dead most of the time vs this kind of villain I would fold. River I definetely fold, you might chop some times (but I dont think this villain would semi bluff on ace with that bet). I might put him on TT, 88, AA.
He might have AK but as played he wasnt scared at all of your call, in his pants with AK AT AQ I would bet fold river.
Let's hear from our coach what they think since I'm a fish
 
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Fri Mar 22, 2013, 04:08 AM
(#3)
KAMA REVENGE's Avatar
Since: Mar 2013
Posts: 1
I thing it is 50 / 50 i will call the all in
 
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Fri Mar 22, 2013, 10:08 AM
(#4)
mtnestegg's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,336
I'd be asking myself what is he trying to accomplish with this size bet. Here's where hand review and note taking really come into play. You have 200+ hands on this guy and the only note you have is low flop cb? I think I would go back and check those hhs out, and I bet you can come up with the most correct answer yourself. To me (so grain of salt please) this looks like a shove to get you to fold, or just a bad value owning bet with AK, A10, or possibly even worse, trying to push you out. It doesn't look like he wants a call here to me. I'd disappoint him.
But really... go back through your hhs and start making some notes on things other than stats on your villains. Guaranteed it will pay dividends.


May the tinfoil protect you. MT

Last edited by mtnestegg; Fri Mar 22, 2013 at 10:10 AM..
 
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Fri Mar 22, 2013, 09:56 PM
(#5)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,512
(Head Trainer)
Hi TANW,

I think the river is a fold tbh, he should be pretty concerned with your hand strength at this point but he's not, he's overbet shoving... from this opponent type this is an action trying for max value. It's not surprising as a value bet if he thinks you're strong here (which takes me back to the first sentence).

I don't mind the preflop action in position, but I think we should be folding on the flop. 2 overs and a gut shot on a paired board is not a good hand to peel with when the passive fish donks and the PFR calls... we are only feeling good about a 9 coming as a Q or J may not even be good, and it's not outside the realm of possibility that a 9 makes us a costly 2nd best hand as well. Not a good situation we're facing here so just fold.

As for your ranges idk where you're getting them from... a bunch of the trip 8's you're using aren't even in his preflop raising range, which is really bad for us since you're counting all those in our win equity.


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Sat Mar 23, 2013, 12:12 AM
(#6)
TheAwesomeNW's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 474
Thanks all! Good points made Agree that flop call was bad here mulitway. Yea Dave I was way too optimistic to include 8's here. Makes more sense that he would have limped the 8's! That leaves us getting crushed when he shoved. I stationed him down and yup he had TT. I'm the huge fish who can't find the Fold BTN
 

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