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bad fold?

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bad fold? - Sat Mar 23, 2013, 03:28 PM
(#1)
hendo30's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 101
 
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Sat Mar 23, 2013, 06:31 PM
(#2)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,346
Hi hendo,

It kind of depends which sort of tournament this was (real money/play money, league game, freeroll, SnG etc) but with all this action in front of you, jacks are not usually in very good shape, so I'd be folding.
It only looks like a bad fold when the hand reaches showdown and you find out no one could beat a pair of sixes, even with an ace on the board.
Try not to be results-oriented. Usually, JJ doesn't have a whole lot of equity when three players are already in the pot.


Bracelet Winner
 
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Sat Mar 23, 2013, 07:00 PM
(#3)
Droagon's Avatar
Since: Mar 2013
Posts: 2
Hi Hendo, not not bad. it was a good fold.

It depends on the history. you have a HUD? did you know how loose and aggressive the other players were

would you have called? . then what would you have done after the A flopped?

Calling obviously would be the wrong decision as it's most of your stack. so the decision was rightly to raise to all in or fold.
are you going to go all in with a big raiser and 2 callers in front of you out of position with only jacks? you would have been all in probably against three opponents with only jacks and thats not good.no.


tight is right. if someone wants to go all in with 22 and someone calls them with 66 and thats happening a lot, then be pateient and a raise it, or possibly call, when you have better than JJ and/or better position.



if you were next to act after the first all in bet, raising would probably have been more indicated.

you made the right decision.
 
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Sat Mar 23, 2013, 10:38 PM
(#4)
hendo30's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 101
it was micro millions $1 think it might have been event 86 (dont quote me on that lol) was well past the bubble but as you can see was getting short stacked. needed to shove sooner rather than later just wont to sure if that was the spot.... as it was three hands later got it in with AQ vs A2 with the guy two to the right and he hit the 2 on the river
 
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Sat Mar 23, 2013, 11:41 PM
(#5)
Moxie Pip's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,853
Quote:
Originally Posted by hendo30 View Post
it was micro millions $1 think it might have been event 86 (dont quote me on that lol) was well past the bubble but as you can see was getting short stacked. needed to shove sooner rather than later just wont to sure if that was the spot.... as it was three hands later got it in with AQ vs A2 with the guy two to the right and he hit the 2 on the river

Given that information,that we're "well past the money bubble" then I'm shipping it here if it's me. Really on a slightly less than M5 stack I'm taking any and all action I can after the bubble with JJ. Yeah,we may only carry the day around 1 time in 3 here but the reward when we DO win in this spot far outweighs the loss of when we miss.

We have 33k chips,the pot is bloated up to 63K when it comes around to us. If we ship here,it's a pretty sure bet that for another 14K each, villains 6 and 8 are going to come along. One may even decide to ship it as well. If that's the case there is going to be almost 125K in the middle,so our pot equity will be a little over 26%.

I punched this into Pokerstove and assigned a 20% range to villain 5,10% to villain 6 and 5% to villain 8 and it puts us at 29%,leaning towards 30%. Personally I think more times than not I'm ranging them too tight,especially in a $1 MTT. But for the sake of argument we'll ride those numbers. That makes a shove,with them coming along,slightly profitable for us. And on an M5 stack,slightly profitable really HAS to be good enough for us at this point. We NEED chips for a FT run. We NEED to gamble a little. This is us gambling in a spot that will prove profitable for us over a large enough sample,so it's all systems go IMO.

Keep in mind as well that many times the three villains will be sharing over cards that could beat us,so that make things even more favorable for us. Someone may wake up with AK,AQ or even KQ here,but many of the time that happens there may be an Ace in one of,or even BOTH, the other hands. The K and Q as well for that matter. We're really only sweating the QQ-AA hands here.If we get UL and run into one of those,then so be it.

Lastly is just the "game theory" part of it. We've already secured a nice result,the heck with the ladder climb. Take some risk,try and get a stack here and put that sucker to use. The times we DO hit here will very likely far outweigh the profits gained by hanging around to turtle up another rung or two on the prize ladder.

Is JJ the ideal hand we want here? No,but in this case I think it's plenty good enough.

Viva La Turtkeknife!!!
 

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