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Underpair Triple Barrel @ 5nl

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Underpair Triple Barrel @ 5nl - Sat Mar 23, 2013, 09:51 PM
(#1)
birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,179


No stats out of the ordinary (20/15). Kinda weak passive post flop from some previous hands.

Thoughts:

Preflop: Isolate fish and have a chance of taking down the pot there, which i'd prefer to set mining. However, we are deep so set mining is still ok with the stacks we have behind.

Flop: Dry flop. I figure if I can win it here it's probably the best result with 2s because it's doubtful i'll get to showdown.

Turn: Blank. Doubtful any of his hands improve. When he calls here I think he has a stubborn pocket pair which won't really stand much more heat on the river.

River: Good for my perceived range (straight, 2 pair, and overpairs), and scary if he has a pocket pair. So I lead out again and he folds.

Now, i don't want to be results orientated, so if I could get some opinions on sizing/my line, that'd be awesome.

Thanks in advance.

Last edited by birdayy; Sat Mar 23, 2013 at 10:59 PM..
 
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Sun Mar 24, 2013, 02:05 PM
(#2)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,346
My initial thought is that this play is kind of suicidal.
Isolating the limper is good, if he plays fit or fold post-flop. i.e. If he folds to c-bets more than 50% of the time, he's a good candidate to isolate. You described this guy as passive. That means he's more likely to call/float post-flop. So pre-flop, I'd often just over-limp here and go set-mining cheaply.

When your flop c-bet gets called, villain can have a wide range. Maybe he has a pair, maybe a gutshot, or maybe two overs. Because his range is so wide here, it's hard to know which turn/river cards would be good to barrel.
The turn is a blank. Any hands that called on the flop are likely to call here too, although overcards might give up. Your equity is not so great against villain's range, so probably your only chance to win the hand is to also fire on the river.
The queen is a decent card to bet, because Jx, 9x, and underpairs probably aren't calling, but it also completes straights for a couple of hands that had gutshots on the flop (KT, T8) and villain could also have rivered two pairs.

Basically, I think your line is too risky. You're building a big pot with a hand that has almost no showdown value, and you're relying solely on fold equity, when it's not at all clear which range of hands you're trying to fold out. Your sizing looks fine for the sort of hands that you'd be value-betting here (AJ/KJ/overpairs/sets), but I just think it's unnecessary to run 3-barrel bluffs at 5NL. At higher limits, you'll have to take lines like this sometimes to beat regs, but here against someone you don't have solid reads on, I think it's not going to be +EV in the long run.


Bracelet Winner
 
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Sun Mar 24, 2013, 02:05 PM
(#3)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,346
[Duplicate post deleted]


Bracelet Winner

Last edited by ArtySmokesPS; Sun Mar 24, 2013 at 02:06 PM.. Reason: dupe
 
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Sun Mar 24, 2013, 09:41 PM
(#4)
birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,179
Thanks for the response.

I cbet a lot so if he went by my stats he'd could float quite often. I don't 2nd barrel too often, and it wasn't a great card, but like you said, when he calls, i'm gonna have to barrel the river.

If the river came another brick I would probably just c/f, but it was such a good card to represent I thought I should barrel one more time. And I thought my line would look pretty convincing to a semi-reg like him.

It is a bit risky, but experimenting with different plays and seeing how it results is how we become better players. That being said, i'll probably be cautious next time.
 

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