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Full Bluff with 23 suited on the cutoff

Full Bluff with 23 suited on the cutoff - Mon Mar 25, 2013, 08:58 AM
Stangg187's Avatar
Since: Feb 2013
Posts: 21
I didn't have many stats on the villain but from the 30 or so hands I've seen they played loose passive.

The move I was concerned about was how to price the 3rd shot at the bluff, I put them on a wide range from the limp, but not on the straight represented by the board, perhaps they hit the king, at best Kx two pairing the board. I would have expected a re raised if they had hit two pair though.

I know pre flop 23s is normally a fold but on this particular table I was making a fair amount of blinds from raising late position so pre flop I was expecting folds.

Sorry, this hand was deleted by its owner

Last edited by Stangg187; Mon Mar 25, 2013 at 10:09 AM..
Mon Mar 25, 2013, 10:20 AM
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,809
**moved to more appropriate forum since this is a cash hand JWK24**


6 Time Bracelet Winner

Mon Mar 25, 2013, 10:47 AM
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,346
Hi Stangg,

I'd probably just give this one up on the flop as a steal gone wrong. You described the villains as loose passive. The standard advice is: Don't try and bluff a calling station!

I also find that villains that limp at 5NL tend to limp-call quite often (About 70% of the time). A raise to 15c doesn't have much fold equity. The standard would be 3bb + 1bb for the limper, so 20c would have more chance of taking down the pot, or at least getting heads up.

The flop is fairly wet, and you have basically no chance at getting two 5NL villains off top pair or a draw. Your bet size of less than half pot is also too small. When you want the villains to fold on the flop, you need to bet around 60% of pot or more. Represent that you have a decent king, in order to get them off weaker holdings.

Villain_9 check-calls the c-bet, so his range can include Kx and flush/straight draws and maybe some weaker pairs. Your small turn bet on the blank looking 5 isn't going to fold out anything that called on the flop.
On the river, a villain might be scared you have an 8, but it would seem unlikely that you have one, given the line you've taken. (Would pocket 8s or 98 barrel the turn with a gutshot + medium pair?)
If you've been stealing lots of pots too, you'll have the image of an aggro/bluffer, so you'll often get looked up by stubborn Kx hands, especially as the price you set is low again.
I think the only hands that fold the river after calling flop/turn are missed flush draws. Some weak players will even call here if they were chasing a draw and hit a pair. (Felix's wasted pair theorem: http://www.pokerschoolonline.com/blogs/post/?id=43103)

On the whole, I think this line is too risky for these stakes. The attempted steal pre-flop is just about OK, but when you get called in two places and you have the nut low, don't put another cent in the pot.


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Last edited by ArtySmokesPS; Mon Mar 25, 2013 at 11:18 AM.. Reason: added info on bet-sizing

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