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10nl Zoom - 99 flopped set. Call or shove?

10nl Zoom - 99 flopped set. Call or shove? - Tue Mar 26, 2013, 09:41 AM
Croyd93's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 639
I know the SB is a bad TAG but the other villains are unknown.

Obviously I'm never folding in this spot but again I can't decide the most +EV play.

I think the standard thing to do here is shove as villain 5 will have an overpair nearly all the time and will call off. However is there added value in keeping villain 4 in the pot?

If we flat and villain 4 folds the pot is large enough to get the money in on either the turn or the river vs villan 5. However villain 4's range is very wide and if we flat it may induce a call, he can hold a lot of pair+draw hands, sets, 2 pair as well as weaker overpairs (TT/JJ) and of course 67. A lot of these hands will fold to shove but many will call OTF and may feel 'priced in' OTT. Some hands my even reshove if given the chance.

Is calling and shoving any turn going to be more profitable in the long for us or is the risk of being outdrawn and losing a big pot too great?

Thanks for the help


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Tue Mar 26, 2013, 07:03 PM
GarethC23's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,273
I am going to quote someone on this hand

The lesson here is to be conscious of situations where your opponents will correctly put you on a very strong hand range. This is not the time to slowplay.
This is from an article by former Team Online player Andrew Brokos.

Our play is to shove here for a few reasons.

1 We are out of position
2 The 4$ raise size makes it natural and the raiser will be committed to calling off his stack
3 If the player who made the weak lead has a combo draw like a gutshot and a flush draw we are almost indifferent to them putting their stack in the pot assuming it will be a 3 way all-in.
4 We ensure we get paid now on this street by full stacks before turn cards come that the 4$ player can check behind

Just a lot more good will come here from shoving versus calling. Had we the board locked on 992 or 933 things would be different or even a dry flop versus this super wet one. Oop on wet multiway = put it all in now

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