Home / Community / Forum / Poker Education / Poker Education & Beginners Questions /

probability on river

Old
Default
probability on river - Tue Mar 26, 2013, 10:35 AM
(#1)
kop147's Avatar
Since: Mar 2013
Posts: 8
Hi all,

I would like to know that how many percent dose the best hand on turn will be lost on the river by the other hand?

Since my best hand on turn was beaten a lot on the river.

Cheers,

Kop
 
Old
Default
Tue Mar 26, 2013, 11:04 AM
(#2)
Fadyen's Avatar
Since: Apr 2012
Posts: 1,917
I don't think this is a question that can really be answered. There are so many different hand combinations and board textures that it's almost impossible to work out such a thing, it's very situational. Sometimes the best hand on the turn is very strong and only gets beat by a villain binking a 1 or 2 outer, sometimes it may seem strong but the board texture/ villains hand means they have a lot of outs to beat you and sometimes the best hand on the turn is actually pretty weak and can be easily beaten by a lot of river cards. So I'm sorry but I can't answer, but perhaps you're asking the wrong question..

It's really good to see you have found a potential leak in your game and want to fix it so maybe you should be asking why you are often getting rivered? Is it just a run of bad luck or is there something in your play that allows you to be beaten this way. Perhaps not charging draws on wet boards or incorrectly reading your opponents hand strength/ranges and in doing so allowing them to get there. I would guess it's probably some combination of the two. If you have some hand histories or examples of this maybe you could post some for analysis or send them to one of PSO's many fine trainers who may be able to help you out by doing a session on this problem.

Hope my thoughts are of some use.



Tournament of Champions Winner 2013

Bracelet Winner

 
Old
Default
Tue Mar 26, 2013, 11:17 AM
(#3)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,836
(Super-Moderator)
BronzeStar
Hi kop147!

Each out has a 2% chance of hitting on the river. If an opp has 4 outs, they will win 8% of the time. If the opp has 10 outs, they will win 20% of the time.

If multiple opps are in the hand, then you'd need to add up all their outs to see what the % is.

John (JWK24)


Super-Moderator



6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
Old
Default
Wed Mar 27, 2013, 12:57 AM
(#4)
kop147's Avatar
Since: Mar 2013
Posts: 8
Thank you john and Fadyen,

I think my Question is not quite clear.

First, What is an average that the best hand on the turn will be beaten on the river.
I mean any hand with any opp. hand. For example, like you will have an aces one in every 220 games you play on average but ,in fact, If you lucky enough you might get aces two in row but still you will have 1 of 220 games on average.

That situation I faced and I had been beaten tree times was
I have an A-high Flush on the turn, then my opp put all in so I suggest that they had either 2 pair, a set or a straight . So I called.
Since the board is clear of any pair so I had the nut.
and suddenly the river come and it happened they draw a repeat board so it pair on board and my opp get full house.

it happened to me many times both online and live.

If this happened what the pros do?

Cheers,

Kop
 
Old
Default
Wed Mar 27, 2013, 01:01 AM
(#5)
kop147's Avatar
Since: Mar 2013
Posts: 8
Additional information.

I often limp in the pot when I have Ax suit that lower than J.

Cheers,

Kop
 
Old
Default
Wed Mar 27, 2013, 01:16 AM
(#6)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,836
(Super-Moderator)
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by kop147 View Post
Additional information.

I often limp in the pot when I have Ax suit that lower than J.

Cheers,

Kop
That can be a really big problem, especially if open-limping. You are out of position and get no information about the opp's cards, which makes for a very large chip leak.
Any pot I'm first to enter, I'm either making a standard raise or folding... it's not worth continually losing the extra chips.

John (JWK24)


Super-Moderator



6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
Old
Default
Wed Mar 27, 2013, 04:21 AM
(#7)
McBinkerson's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 18
SilverStar
That can be a really big problem, especially if open-limping. You are out of position and get no information about the opp's cards, which makes for a very large chip leak.
Any pot I'm first to enter, I'm either making a standard raise or folding... it's not worth continually losing the extra chips.

John (JWK24)
^^^^ i concur
 
Old
Default
Wed Mar 27, 2013, 09:19 AM
(#8)
kop147's Avatar
Since: Mar 2013
Posts: 8
Yeah john I agree but sometimes It is hard too put a raise on a worst hand.
Anyway, after your suggestion on last topic I try to do as standard as I can.

One question is pop up on my head.

If let say 3-4 rounds pass you still do not get a good hole card, What should we do?

I am normally a kind of Passive player.

Please advice.

Cheers,

kop
 
Old
Default
Wed Mar 27, 2013, 10:41 AM
(#9)
Fadyen's Avatar
Since: Apr 2012
Posts: 1,917
My advice would be it depends on what kind of game you are playing. If cash games I'm happy to wait it out for a good spot although still looking for some steals if the opportunity arises. If it's tournaments and you're stack is being affected by the blinds/antes then you need to really look for some steal spots and get more aggressive in certain spots so you don't end up blinding out. If you look through the video archive there are some videos/lessons on finding good spots to steal.

Also I would like to echo Johns thoughts about limping, if the hand is not good enough to raise I'm folding it. It can be a big leak of valuable chips. Also if you tend to limp rather than raise with a certain range of hands it can become a tell and your opponents will know exactly what you're playing.

As for nut flush vs 2 pair on the turn you will lose about 9% of the time as the villain has 4 outs. Nut flus vs a set you will lose about 22% of the time as the villain has 10 outs.



Tournament of Champions Winner 2013

Bracelet Winner

 
Old
Default
Wed Mar 27, 2013, 11:02 AM
(#10)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,836
(Super-Moderator)
BronzeStar
Hi kop!

Marginal hands that aren't worth raising with are ones that I'm mucking. Those hands will be chip gushers instead of leaks! Another reason for raising with the hands that I'm playing is that when I do get hands, it also maximizes my wins. By being aggressive and getting more chips from my good hands, it allows me to wait more and more to be able to pick up hands. Going card dead is something that will happen to all of us frequtently and the way to beat it is to maximize equity and to look to be aggressive when in position and steal a few blinds when the situation presents itself.

John (JWK24)


Super-Moderator



6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
Old
Default
Wed Mar 27, 2013, 11:03 AM
(#11)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,359
Quote:
Originally Posted by kop147 View Post
I think my Question is not quite clear.
First, What is an average that the best hand on the turn will be beaten on the river.
It completely depends on how strong your hand is, and how strong villain's draw is. There are hundreds of millions of board and holecard combinations, after all.
A few examples though:
If you have TPTK and villain has a lower pair and lower kicker, then he has 5 outs to make trips or two pair. 5 outs * 2 = 10% chance of sucking out on the next card.
If you have a straight or flush and villain has a set, then he has 10 outs to a boat/quads, so will hit it about 10 * 2 = 20% of the time.
If villain only has an overpair and you have bottom set, then he only has 2 outs to top set, so will only suck out 2 * 2 = 4% of the time.

In the long run, I'd estimate that you get rivered on average about 15% of the time. It really depends on the relative strength of your hands and the board texture.

Quote:
Originally Posted by kop147 View Post
it happened to me many times both online and live.
If this happened what the pros do?
Pros take the suckouts in their stride. Sometimes they will bet-fold or check-fold the river, even when they've been betting strongly all along, because they realise they just got rivered. Most of the time, though, the best hand on the turn will still be the best hand on the river. This is why we try and get money into the pot when we're winning, but get out of the way when the board gets ugly.


Bracelet Winner
 
Old
Default
Wed Mar 27, 2013, 11:25 PM
(#12)
kop147's Avatar
Since: Mar 2013
Posts: 8
Thank you all,

Cheers,

kop
 

Getting PokerStars is easy: download and install the PokerStars game software, create your free player account, and validate your email address. Clicking on the download poker button will lead to the installation of compatible poker software on your PC of 51.7 MB, which will enable you to register and play poker on the PokerStars platform. To uninstall PokerStars use the Windows uninstaller: click Start > Control Panel and then select Add or Remove programs > Select PokerStars and click Uninstall or Remove.

Copyright (c) PokerSchoolOnline.com. All rights reserved, Rational Group, Douglas Bay Complex, King Edward Road, Onchan, Isle of Man, IM3 1DZ. You can email us on support@pokerschoolonline.com