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2nl, nut flush draw, all in call?

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2nl, nut flush draw, all in call? - Tue Mar 26, 2013, 11:21 AM
(#1)
LouisB93's Avatar
Since: Mar 2013
Posts: 2
BronzeStar


This is my first post so I might not have embedded this right, so bear with me.

I get AJs on the button and am facing a raise, this player seems to raise pretty much anything so I call it.

Then facing a small bet and a raise on the flop I re-raise because of the nut-flush draw.

I then get re-raised all in.

I call this.

Do you think I played this hand right?
 
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Tue Mar 26, 2013, 11:36 AM
(#2)
mimesis.is's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 74
I really doubt the other guy is shoving with worse than an overpair at this point. With that in mind you're likely drawing to at MOST 12 outs and possibly as few as 5 or 6.
I don't like reraising the flop here. With a bet/reraise you know you're going to get action if you hit your hand so you may as well try and see it cheap.

Preflop is fine but I would call the flop to avoid this kind of spot.
 
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Tue Mar 26, 2013, 01:34 PM
(#3)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,359
Hi LouisB93,

If villain 9 is raising lots of hands, like a maniac, then there's a good argument for re-raising pre-flop (3-betting) and taking the initiative, but my prefered line is to flat call here, as it's not clear if this guy will call with worse. He may even 4-bet/jam on us, especially if he only raises 4bb with very strong hands. AJs can flop quite well and plays well in position, so calling looks good. It also encourages the blinds to join the pot, so we could win a big one if we get a good board.

The flop is pretty good for you. You have 2 overcards and the NFD. Against a hand like KT, you're actually a slight favourite to win this hand at showdown. Against overpairs (apart from AA), it's basically a flip.

Villain 5 donks out small. Usually this indicates a weak pair, or a draw, but sometimes the villain has a monster like a set and wants to get action. Villain 9 makes a fairly small raise, and this could be anything really. He might have a big overpair, or maybe he thinks the SB is weak, so wants to regain the initiative. Since it's now unclear how strong your hand is, I think just a call is the best play, mainly because I can't see both of these players folding, and you don't have a made hand yet. If the SB has a monster, he's likely to 3-bet the flop.
As played, you minraised to 20c opening up the betting again, allowing villain 9 to shove all in. Villain 5 only called your raise, so it's looking like he just has one pair or a draw after all, but we need to work out the pot odds and compare it to our equity against the shover to see if we can call.
I think his range is something like TT+, 77 (overpairs and sets), possibly AT (if he stackes off TPTK) and maybe a worse FD than yours, with KQdd.
Your equity against that range is... 43%

Board: Td3d7h
Equity Win Tie
Vill 56.90% 56.86% 0.04% { TT+, 77, ATs, KdQd, ATo }
Hero 43.10% 43.06% 0.04% { AdJd }

So we can only stack off here if the pot lays 43% on a call.
You need to call $1.82 into a pot of $2.68. The % of the total pot you need to contribute is 182/(268+182) = 40%
So if we call, we'll be contributing 40% of the total pot, and we'll win it about 43% of the time, so this is a profitable stack off, but only just. If the short stack also calls, the pot would be even bigger. It should still be profitable, because you've got around 35% equity against two players, but would be contributing less than a third of the pot.

In the final analysis, calling it off is OK, but I prefer just calling on the flop, so we can see if we hit one of our numerous outs relatively cheaply. The action here makes it pretty clear that you have to suck out against some solid made hands, and you have no fold equity. It's normally a better idea to be the player going all in, than the one calling an all in. If these players aren't folding to your semi-bluff raise on the flop, then it's better to just call.

Hope this helps.
Cheers,
Arty


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Tue Mar 26, 2013, 02:14 PM
(#4)
LouisB93's Avatar
Since: Mar 2013
Posts: 2
BronzeStar
Thanks very much for your help, the 2 villains were holding pocket 9s and pocket aces.

unfortunately I didn't hit my draw, but I think I understand the points you've made.

Are you saying I was right to reraise preflop, but should have just called on the flop?
 
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Tue Mar 26, 2013, 02:45 PM
(#5)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,359
Pre-flop, you could have 3-bet to 22c or so, but I prefer flat-calling the 8c like you did.
On the flop, I'd just call the 12c, because you have great pot odds to see if you hit the turn. As mimesis pointed out, if you make your hand, you'll probably still get paid off, because these villains clearly have something. Bloating the pot with a draw was unnecessary, as these guys aren't folding anything that beats you.


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Tue Mar 26, 2013, 06:08 PM
(#6)
adsthepro777's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 630
Hi there louis,

Welcome to PSO

Good to see your already posting hands and trying to learn, if you need any help finding your way around visit this link.

Hope you enjoy your time here,

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