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25NL FR Zoom: Folding AA on river on dry board

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25NL FR Zoom: Folding AA on river on dry board - Tue Mar 26, 2013, 02:38 PM
(#1)
Roland GTX's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 1,905
The villain in this hand is a goldstar reg who plays as a rock, very tight 10/8. I have about 500 hands on him and never seen him get out of line.

http://www.boomplayer.com/en/poker-h...844_B172B20519

When he called pre from ep I put him on a decent pair most likely. Calling a 4x from ep with suited connectors seems very unlikely. If he had a premium hand I would have expected him to 3-bet. This leaves 88, 99, 1010, JJ and QQ as likely hands, maybe AK.

When he flatted my c-bet I got very worried that I was facing a set. 99 and JJ were in his range. I wouldn't expect him to just call without a big hand since the shorty was still left to act. I would have expected him to raise if he had an overpair and fold if he had AK.

I probably should have folded on the turn, but was hoping to get to the showdown cheaply. Letting go of AA in a big pot isnt easy. His large bet on the river confused me though.

Does my read on the villain having a set seem sound, or is it likely that I folded the best hand in this spot?

Thanks!

Greg (Roland GTX)
 
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Tue Mar 26, 2013, 07:34 PM
(#2)
GarethC23's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,273
Hey Roland

Do you know this villain's EP 3bet%? I think that is important in including or taking out some KK from his range.

I think I like betting the turn here and folding to action from this villain, expecting to see JJ/99 as the only hands in his raising range (maybe the 55). This, by all accounts, is a good turn card for you. One of the best. Betting for value is going to make the hand a lot easier to play which is a nice byproduct of being the best line.

As it happens his shove shouldn't confuse you. He thinks he has he best hand and is looking to get paid. The only question is whether he has KK combinations. Whether he does or doesn't, you still have to fold.

I just think when you can find such natural bet/fold spots at these stakes like this spot on the turn, where only better raises and worse calls, then you should capitalize on them. Most often you will find they offer an easier time for your decision making in the hand and a more difficult one for your opponent compared to a pot control or passive line. After all, if you are confident check-calling the size of his turn bet after the other player cold called, why wouldn't you be comfortable betting yourself?
 
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Wed Mar 27, 2013, 04:38 AM
(#3)
Roland GTX's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 1,905
Hi Gareth!

The villain only had a 2.4% 3-bet overall and 12.5% from ep (2 out of 16 hands and no showdowns). I have one instance of him 3-betting with KK, but that was from the sb vs the co. I'm not sure how to interpret his ep 3-bet% with so few hands.

Your bet-fold line for the turn makes sense. I've been working on my pot control recently, but see that the 5 on the turn makes for a better bet-fold spot. Something new for me to work on, thanks!

Greg
 
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Wed Mar 27, 2013, 09:05 AM
(#4)
RockerguyAA's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,089
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by GarethC23 View Post
Hey Roland

Do you know this villain's EP 3bet%? I think that is important in including or taking out some KK from his range.

I think I like betting the turn here and folding to action from this villain, expecting to see JJ/99 as the only hands in his raising range (maybe the 55). This, by all accounts, is a good turn card for you. One of the best. Betting for value is going to make the hand a lot easier to play which is a nice byproduct of being the best line.

As it happens his shove shouldn't confuse you. He thinks he has he best hand and is looking to get paid. The only question is whether he has KK combinations. Whether he does or doesn't, you still have to fold.

I just think when you can find such natural bet/fold spots at these stakes like this spot on the turn, where only better raises and worse calls, then you should capitalize on them. Most often you will find they offer an easier time for your decision making in the hand and a more difficult one for your opponent compared to a pot control or passive line. After all, if you are confident check-calling the size of his turn bet after the other player cold called, why wouldn't you be comfortable betting yourself?
Hi Gareth,

I came to a similar conclusion as you regarding 2-barreling the turn for value here. If we are going to call that turn bet, we might as well bet it ourselves. Villain will be a ton less inclined to take over the aggression and bet/raise QQ, we continue to get value all the times we aren't against a set, and lose about the same when we are. I guess the major point is that if we check and villain checks behind it will result in a huge loss of value for us. So much so it is almost a travesty of a play.

This still leaves a question mark in my head about the river though! (Assuming villain calls) We are out of position and if we bet we get action from better and maybe QQ/KK (Very possible villain folds TT to third barrel). If we check we get action from better, TT+ for two pairs, and maybe AK or counterfeited two pair as a bluff. So what do we do? Bet out and pray to the poker gods we don't get raised? Check and pray he fires a shot with a worse hand? Check and pray for a check.... or a miss-click fold?
 
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Wed Mar 27, 2013, 09:47 AM
(#5)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,516
(Head Trainer)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Roland GTX View Post
I would have expected him to raise if he had an overpair
I wouldn't ever expect him to raise with an overpair. He's a nit who never gets out of line, facing an UTG raise and c-bet in a multi-way pot. With QQ he is going to be (legitimately) concerned you have him beat, as AA/KK/JJ are all in YOUR range here to be blasting at this situation. If he held KK it's closer, but nits who doen't get out of line almost always takes the cautious route and call... if he raises he's only hoping to get value from QQ specifically right? And folding out all worse hands.


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