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10NL 6-max zoom. 88 in bb facing btn min open + sb 3-bet. Agree with my call?

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10NL 6-max zoom. 88 in bb facing btn min open + sb 3-bet. Agree with my call? - Tue Mar 26, 2013, 06:56 PM
(#1)
ForrestFive's Avatar
Since: May 2011
Posts: 2,036
Hi,

I have 88 in bb facing a btn min open raise and a sb 3-bet.

Do you agree with my flat call or is it too speculative?

No reads but I did specifically check to see if there was enough money, at least $9 = 15 x 60c, in the villain's stack.

Hopefully I correctly use the terminology here of 15 : 1 in "implied" odds to set mine. Also 88 may be good on a low flop against AQs+.

Great to hit my set but now how was my post flop play. Did I lose a lot of value not raising flop or betting turn?

Raising the villain's river bet was sweet >>who is bluffing who<<?

Last edited by ForrestFive; Tue Mar 26, 2013 at 07:06 PM..
 
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Tue Mar 26, 2013, 08:55 PM
(#2)
GarethC23's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,273
Hey ForrestFive

Preflop is definitely speculative. I think its just on the borderline. Keep in mind 1 thing, the action isn't closed. The button can still reopen the pot.

I think if you posted this hand and you folded preflop I wouldn't think twice.

Not raising the flop is excusable but not betting the turn is inexcusable. How can we check the turn back? Are we concerned we can't get value? Don't have the best hand?

Once villain checks turn it is very clear we a) have the best hand almost always b) don't want certain cards to come off on the river that will kill our action or make our hand second best.

We have to bet, therefore. We lose so much value on club rivers, on over cards, on straightening cards. We lose value to second best hands and a decent number of hands pass us.

That's the biggest mistake in this hand by fair. Preflop is definitely arguable, though I would defer to fold. The flop is definitely the most well played street, raising is an option to stack QQ+, but we aren't required to if we think villain is going to be aggressive later.
 
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Tue Mar 26, 2013, 10:24 PM
(#3)
ForrestFive's Avatar
Since: May 2011
Posts: 2,036
Hi Gareth,

Inexcusable?

From the sb I will 3b 99 + what ever blah blah... Ok the muppet in the bb hangs around I hoped to isolated the min btn open.

Well as the sb betting lead c-bet my set or what ever over pair or draw I have. When the turn comes in why would I lead again and bet the nuts? What worse will call?

So back to my hand I'm checking behind on the turn if I'm beat I'm beat. Now the river is a blank so to me that smallish river bet tells me?

a) If I raise, I will get shoved on and have to fold because I am beat.

b) I can get some value raising because "now" I'm not a believer.

My delayed 1 street logic and I respect your opinion - but really inexcusable?

Last edited by ForrestFive; Tue Mar 26, 2013 at 10:28 PM..
 
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Wed Mar 27, 2013, 05:55 AM
(#4)
GarethC23's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,273
I just wanted to reinforce how large a mistake checking back the turn was. Seems like my word choice got your attention .

One thing we see is that a) and b) on the river are a byproduct of our turn play. We check back the turn but can't even raise the river if our opponent bets (hoping I haven't misread your post here) -- that's a big issue. One of the reasons for checking back a strong hand in a spot like this is deception, not simply pot control. I don't think we gain from deception if we can't raise/call river. I just think in general in this spot on a wet board we don't gain on the turn from either deception or pot control. We have a disguised enough hand already -- we have a monster and he doesn't know it!
 

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