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more odds - Fri Nov 22, 2002, 06:38 PM
(#1)
Deleted user
ok i know AAv KK is 4-1


but what are AA v KQs
and AA v AKs
i think the KQs does better against the AA than the AK does but how much better

rough guess is KQs is 5-1 dog AKs is 18-1,20-1 dog
 
Old
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the Odds - Fri Nov 22, 2002, 07:14 PM
(#2)
Deleted user
AA vs AKs---AA is an approximate 8/1 favorite
AA vs KQs---AA is an approximate 4.7/1 favorite (assuming that the suit of KQ is not the same as one of the A, if it is then AA is an approximate 5.1/1 favorite)
 
Old
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Fri Nov 22, 2002, 07:19 PM
(#3)
Deleted user
has to be bigger than 8-1 its a hope to hit a flush or a set of kings hand


if that is the case the biggest you can ever be ahead preflop is 8-1
 
Old
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Fri Nov 22, 2002, 07:37 PM
(#4)
Sailor Moe's Avatar
Sailor Moe
(Sailor Moe)
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,635
Check this site: http://www.maestropoker.com/java/headsup/index.html

It will give you answer to all your questions I think.

Sailor Moe


2 Time Bracelet Winner

 
Old
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Fri Nov 22, 2002, 07:39 PM
(#5)
Deleted user
that is pretty true ironside. ( i think)lol, someone once told me that if the pot was offering me ten to one odds, then i should play just about any two cards, because i may just flop a miracle. i mean, it only has to happen one in 9 times then to show a profit........that is why when more than one person in early position limp in, more people come in in later position, it was worth the call to see a flop. i wonder what the adds are of 2/7 offsuit against AA, as you can not make a straight with 2/7, at least not both working, i think this hand would give you the worst possible odds ever faced preflop.

jmuzzey
 
Old
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Fri Nov 22, 2002, 08:53 PM
(#6)
Deleted user
From the software I use AA vs 72o=
black AA would win 87.24%
red 72o 12.75%

red AA 88.74%
red 72o 10.78%


--Matt--
 
Old
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Fri Nov 22, 2002, 09:18 PM
(#7)
Deleted user
72o does better against AA than either AKo or AKs, though it is almost identical to AKo odds-wise. However 72o is terrible against 77. You can probably spot a common trait there somewhere. It's only about 7 or 8-to-1 dog verses AA and about 15-to-1 dog v 77.

I would say the worst situations you can find yourself in, headsup and all-in, will be when you are against a pair that is the same as your highest card.
 
Old
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Sat Nov 23, 2002, 08:25 AM
(#8)
Deleted user
the worst dogs are hands like Q2 v QQ etc with the low card being of the same suit as one of opponents
these are something like 14-1 dogs
a very short stacked phil hellmuth held Q2 v QQ on a late night poker and passed
after a long rant about what a great player he was for passing when he said most "experts" would call he was shown the QQ he faced
when asked how much of a dog he would have been he declared no worse than 7-1
nice to know even phil doesn't know everything
 
Old
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Sat Nov 23, 2002, 03:43 PM
(#9)
Deleted user
ok i was trying to work this out as a new member and myself were on the same table a few times last night and saw each other get beats

one was me holding KK v k5s (against a wpo manaic)
and his was KK v my AQs

while we were exchanging war wounds and licking our wounds i said that the AQs was only about 2-1 dog were i thought the K5s was much bigger.

i used the AA v AK for terms or reference because i i thought AA v AKs would be the same as KK v k5s and 77 v 72s obviously i was wrong.


fidget i remember the LNP show your on about and if i remember right neither player showed hands and phil was still going on about the hand for the next 5 weeks ( ok i exagerate) trying to claim at one point that he was 2-1 favourite to 7-1 dog and back again trying to make it look like he had a big hand and not just 2 rags.
 
Old
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Sat Nov 23, 2002, 06:32 PM
(#10)
Deleted user
Quote:
Originally Posted by ironside
while we were exchanging war wounds and licking our wounds i said that the AQs was only about 2-1 dog were i thought the K5s was much bigger.
The other posters are right - the worst it gets is something like Q5o vs QQ (for example). Q5s and QJo a tad better, QJs ditto.

But "pair vs 1 higher+1 lower" e.g. AQo v KK is surprisingly 'close', about 71-29, depending on suits, so those pocket K's are never that secure.

Odds schmodds, I say :wink:
 
Old
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Sat Nov 23, 2002, 06:41 PM
(#11)
Deleted user
ok i thought (think) there are preflop only 11 odds that you must understand.

pair v over pair
pair v 2 over cards
pair v 2 undercards
pair v one of same and undercard
pair v one of same and overcard
2 overcards v 2 undercards
pair v one over and one undercard
1 over card and one under card ie (ATv kq)
high card low card ie(AJ v KT)
same high card with lower kicker ie (Ak v AQ)
and same low card with lower kicker ie (TJ v TQ)

they give all the major odds the suitedness and connectedness of the cards make a little difference but not much

hope that make sence

ps a hand like KK v Kx would be the best you can preflop in my thinking
 
Old
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Sat Nov 23, 2002, 10:38 PM
(#12)
Deleted user
Quote:
ok i thought (think) there are preflop only 11 odds that you must understand.
Hi:

Is there a place where I can see what these odds actually are?

Thanks much!
 
Old
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Sun Nov 24, 2002, 01:26 AM
(#13)
Deleted user
KK v AQs is just over around 2-to-1. Over 5-to-2 if not suited. These odds apply to any pp against 1 overcard. The odds are also very similar for any matchup where someone has a higher kicker, such as AKv AQ or KJ v K2.

KK v K5o is a huge fav.

Got the table below from Sklansky and Barbara Yoon so I assume they are accurate. I've still not got around to reading this lol. Maybe next year.

I haven't bothered reading it as most odds and situations are pretty similar. For example, just assuming 2 high card hands that do not dominate each other are around a 3-to-2 matchup. It won't be far wrong. For example AK v 56, AK v T5 etc. All about the same 3-to-2 matchup.

Most matchups fall within the ballpark of the following group of 6 odds. Evens, 3-to-2, 2-to-1, 5-to-2, 4-to-1, around 10-to-1 or more.


1. Pair versus pair...about...4 1/2-to-1...

2. Pair versus two overcards...about even money.

3. Pair versus one overcard and one undercard...about...2 1/2-to-1...

4. Pair versus two undercards...typically more than...5-to-1...

5. Pair versus one overcard and one of the pair cards...about...2 1/3-to-1...

6. Pair versus one undercard and one of the pair cards...10-to-1 or more...

7. First and second highest versus third and fourth...usually about...9-to-5...

8. First and fourth highest versus second and third...usually below 7-to-5.

9. First and third highest versus second and fourth...about 8-to-5.

10. First and second highest versus duplicate of first plus third highest -- Example...K-Q versus K-J. ...usually slightly below 3-to-1.

11. First and second highest versus duplicate of second plus third highest -- Example: K-Q versus Q-J. ...usually between 2 3/4-to-1 and 3-to-1.

12 First and 3rd vs 2nd and 3rd. Ex: A-J vs K-J. The odds for match-ups in this 'category' can vary from just slightly better than a toss-up for like 4s-2h versus 3d-2d, up to as much as 3.42-to-1 for like As-2s versus Kh-2d.
 
Old
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Sun Nov 24, 2002, 08:29 AM
(#14)
Deleted user
Quote:
Originally Posted by Noodles
I would say the worst situations you can find yourself in, headsup and all-in, will be when you are against a pair that is the same as your highest card.
I've been working at it with Pokerstove and can confirm Noodles is right. Anybody have a matrix of Hold'em starting hands showing heads-up odds?


Thanks, Den
 
Old
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One Minor Change - Sun Nov 24, 2002, 12:31 PM
(#15)
Deleted user
Noodles said:
Quote:
6. Pair versus one undercard and one of the pair cards...10-to-1 or more...
This is incorrect. Sooted cards that are not of the pair and connectors make a difference. AdAh vs AsKs is about a 8/1 favorite, whereas AdAh vs Askc is about 15.7/1 favorite. JcJd vs Js10s is about a 4.8/1 favorite whereas JcJd vs Js2d is about a 20.2 favorite.
 
Old
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Sun Nov 24, 2002, 12:56 PM
(#16)
Deleted user
iron i think that was a different hand/rant
the one i'mm talking about was after phil reraised john colclough on the flop holding a flush after dave made bet 500 with the Ad
this left phil very short and very steamed a while later he passed the Q2 from the blind and the raiser showed QQ
everyone laughed at phil and he got more upset
mad marty even claimed ignorance of phils world series wins
 
Old
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Re: One Minor Change - Sun Nov 24, 2002, 02:09 PM
(#17)
Deleted user
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bruno
Noodles said:
Quote:
6. Pair versus one undercard and one of the pair cards...10-to-1 or more...
This is incorrect. Sooted cards that are not of the pair and connectors make a difference. AdAh vs AsKs is about a 8/1 favorite, whereas AdAh vs Askc is about 15.7/1 favorite. JcJd vs Js10s is about a 4.8/1 favorite whereas JcJd vs Js2d is about a 20.2 favorite.
Blame Sklansky, not me. I did notice that he gives very rough ballpark figures, that are about correct in general. I am also sure that there are specific exceptions to the general ballpark figures, such as the JJ vJTs example. However, I am still sure we can safely assume that JJ is the worse hand the JTs can be against in an all-in showdown, (though it may be close if other higher pairs have a card in the same suit), so the general principle still holds in that respect.
 
Old
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Sun Nov 24, 2002, 02:42 PM
(#18)
Deleted user
so the worsest you can be in a heads up postion is 20-1 (approx)

but your never normally more that 2-1 behind unless facing a big pair


so if your getting 2-1 pot odds on an all in player in the bb you should go all in?

now lets thinking of some cases

full table sat
blinds 100/200 with 25$ ante
pot 550
utg raises all in for 550 more
your now getting 2-1 odds and you have a stack of 2k (average)
do you call

ok you have stack of 1200$ do you call?

at what level do you fold and refuse to take the odds

lets say you have 10k and half the tourny chips what odds would you want before trying to take a player out at a full table?

all the above questions based on a 2k starting stack single table sat using school structure
 
Old
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Sun Nov 24, 2002, 07:22 PM
(#19)
Deleted user
Quote:
Originally Posted by ironside
so the worsest you can be in a heads up postion is 20-1 (approx)

but your never normally more that 2-1 behind unless facing a big pair
Make it between 5-to-2 and just under 3-to-1. For example, AK v AQo or A2o. KK v AQo or A2o etc.


Quote:
so if your getting 2-1 pot odds on an all in player in the bb you should go all in?
Not always, but often. One reason is that, besides the actual odds, the fact that you are getting these odds suggests that the opponent is desperate and usually all-in on a prayer, so you will often be against a wider range of hands than some people think.



Quote:
full table sat
blinds 100/200 with 25$ ante
pot 550
utg raises all in for 550 more
your now getting 2-1 odds and you have a stack of 2k (average)
do you call
Firstly, you are getting slightly over 2-to-1 if they raise 550 more as you forgot the 200 call. Unless you meant he moved in for a total of 550, in which case there is 1100 in the pot and only 350 for you to call, so much more thna 2-to-1 in that case.

Secondly, with an ante and the BB about to hit, a player could have a wide range of hands in this situation UTG. You do not always call, but you often would. Call if you have a hand you think could be best against a desperate opponent. If you think your hand has no chance of being best, then you call if the odds are right. In this respect, you have to consider how your hand would do if it was against an intermediate pair, so low suited cards are probably still a fold even though they ar eonly 3-to-2 against any ace . You probably need higher odds to call with these type of hands, though if the original all-in was opening from the button, you may be ok to call. It depends on the range of hands etc.

Quote:
ok you have stack of 1200$ do you call?
You play if the math is right against the range of hands you put an opponent on, based on whatever situation it happens to be. This is universal. Only exception to calling if the pot odds are right is near the big money, where you may or may not pass up calling for a lot of chips in close gambles. Other things besides pot odds would then need to be factored into the equation, though math would still tell you the answer, It's just that there would be more inputs into the equation besides pot odds.

Outside of the big money, the Math = pot odds. Near the big money, the math = pot odds + other considerations.

If the math is a close decision between palying and folding, then tend to play for psychological reasons. Mainly related to being pushed about.

Consider the difference it makes to an opponent in the later stages of a tourney if they know you have wide calling requirements. Often, in the later stages, when you raise, your opponents will put you on a steal, and will often re-raise all-in with a wide range of hands in the hopes winning without a showdown. You'll be amazed how often players will fold to your raise in the later stages of the tournament because they know they cannot push you about. So they will think twice before moving-in against you, and more than likely fold, hands that they would tend to move-in with against a typical opponent in that situation. It really puts fear and second guessing/doubt into opponents minds. So, not only is the pot giving you enough equity to play when you are moved-in against, you also get the psychological benefit in future hands/tournaments against the better/skilled, more observant players. It's a key point.


Quote:
at what level do you fold and refuse to take the odds
I don't think I understand the question. Remember, if you have the odds, just how big were the stacks in the first place. Just how desperate is the player doing the pushing. Answer, very small, and likely very desperate.

You could refuse the pot odds when near the big-money. That's because other factors are added to the EV equation, and can therefore change the math and hence the correct play. As I said earlier:

Outside of the big money, the Math = pot odds. Near the big money, the math = pot odds + other considerations.

Quote:
lets say you have 10k and half the tourny chips what odds would you want before trying to take a player out at a full table?
Whichever odds the math says is right based on your read of the range of hands your opponent could have.

Of course, all the above is concerned with all-in decisions.
 
Old
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WORST matchup is K2o vs KK - Thu Nov 28, 2002, 12:43 PM
(#20)
Deleted user
OK here's the definitive list of the worst possible 9 hand matchups, which with a bit of work I've managed to dig out of the 7,000,000,000 hand evaluations we carried out to build the heads up info for the Pokalyzer

Where cards are offsuit the kicker is the same suit as one of the pair they face.

The 2nd column gives the percentage win rate for the first hand and the last column the odds of the 2nd hand.

Code:
KK v K2o	94.92	18.685 to 1
QQ v Q2o	94.66	17.727 to 1
KK v K3o	94.48	17.116 to 1
JJ v J2o	94.35	16.699 to 1
QQ v Q3o	94.22	16.301 to 1
AA v A9o	94.08	15.892 to 1
KK v K8o   94.07	15.863 to 1
KK v K4o	94.04	15.779 to 1
TT v T2o	94.00	15.667 to 1
 

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