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Rookie read on flush on flop and further

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Rookie read on flush on flop and further - Thu Mar 28, 2013, 04:38 AM
(#1)
3k3r's Avatar
Since: Mar 2013
Posts: 2


Hi guys. I am new to PokerStars and this is my first post on the hand analyzer therefore I am sorry for any mistakes or deviation from forum rules. Please correct me if I am wrong.

Here I was with a nice strong hand JJ in UTG2. Raised , all folded except SB on which , I admit , I had no idea what his image was. Damn flush comes on flop and I raise for information. He checks. That hints me that he doesn't have the flush. 5c comes and he bets. I figure he got to pairs now with AA 55, so I call. 6h comes and he shoves. I think this was my mistake to call to him.

How would any1 have handled it otherwise?
 
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Thu Mar 28, 2013, 08:23 AM
(#2)
mimesis.is's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 74
Standard opening from middle position, fine. Flop of all clubs, usually i'm betting out for 60-100% of the pot here, charging maximum from hands with one club and getting folds out of the no club hands.
When he calls it's pretty safe to assume he has at least one club.

Donk bet on the turn by villain is very strong. What does that say to you? Seems to me like he's got a made hand and doesn't want to let you go check-check and improve on the river for free. At a guess I'd say the guy has a weak flush right now. I'd probably be calling the turn hoping that the board pairs and folding to a river shove.
 
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Thu Mar 28, 2013, 11:57 AM
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iggyo's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 171
Hi 3k3r,

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Thu Mar 28, 2013, 09:43 PM
(#4)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,346
Hi 3k3r!

Pre-flop is standard. On the flop, you've got a set, so your bet should be for value and protection. It's unlikely villain flopped the flush. The range of hands you're targetting is Ax and flush draws. While you might get some "information" here, you're primarily concerned with getting value. I think villain would probably call with KcXx, QcXx and TcTx, as well as AJ, AT.
I'd prefer a slightly larger c-bet (8c), as less than half pot just looks so weak. If villain has a decent pocket pair with a club, then you don't want him drawing out cheaply.
Villain's flat call indicates you're either way ahead (he has one pair with or without a flush draw, or just the bare flush/straight draw) or way behind (he has the nuts). With the bare Kc, I think he'd often raise, especially if he has a queen or ten, because he'd have a gutshot straight draw to go with the NFD. (If he has the King of clubs, and puts you on AK, then he knows you have no flush draw, so a semi-bluff raise would have a a fair bit of fold equity, as well as plenty of outs when called.)

On the turn, villain donks out. This line is weird. I think it's usually a value-bet with a made flush, and he's making the bet because he's worried you'll be "one-and-done" with regard to the c-bet and will check behind. If he has the nuts, he wants to get paid.
Villain's mistake here is that he too bets less than half pot. This actually allows you to play perfectly against him. Even if he showed you his cards and said "I have the nuts", you can call. You have 10 outs to a boat or quads on the river, and you're getting good odds to see if you hit one of them. In fact, if we factor in implied odds, we stand to make a big profit here, because if the board pairs, villain will still bet, and you can raise and he'll nearly always pay you off.
In short, calling on the turn is fine.
On the river, you don't make a boat or quads and villain bets 96c into 50c. This massive overbet is a huge tell. If villain has a flush, he's thinking "Dammit. There's only 50c in the pot. My monster hand deserves a monster pot." It's precisely because villain didn't raise the flop and only bet 12c on the turn that the pot is relatively small. I don't blame you for calling here, as villain's confusing line probably seemed quite bluffy, but when you've been in this spot a few times you'll realise what it means: He has the nuts and he's desperate to get paid. We beat guys like this by drawing out cheaply and getting paid when we hit... and by folding when they make ridiculous overbets when they have us beat.

Look out in future for this. Unless you have specific notes on a guy to say he makes big river bluffs, a large lead bet on the river is nearly always the (near) nuts.

Cheers,
Arty


Bracelet Winner

Last edited by ArtySmokesPS; Thu Mar 28, 2013 at 09:46 PM..
 
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Mon Apr 01, 2013, 03:14 AM
(#5)
3k3r's Avatar
Since: Mar 2013
Posts: 2
Thank you all for the input especially Arty. This was great information and I will surely learn from this experience.
 

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