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Nl5 JJ facing flop overbet all in

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Nl5 JJ facing flop overbet all in - Fri Mar 29, 2013, 09:27 AM
(#1)
Mind_V_Gap's Avatar
Since: Oct 2012
Posts: 34
BronzeStar
hey guys I've got this hand that I'm not sure if in the long run is a good call.

I have only 40 hands vs villain and he played pretty aggressive.
73/25 fcbet 12 raise cbet IP 40.
I didnt think too much when I called, what would you do here?

thanks
 
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Fri Mar 29, 2013, 03:25 PM
(#2)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,316
Against a villain with these sort of stats, I'm fist-pump calling. The "raise flop c-bet" stat is really useful in these spots. A typical nit will raise the flop about 7% of the time, and it's always with a set, top 2, or a flush/straight. A decent TAG will raise the flop 10-15% of the time, because they also raise with draws. Anything over 15% for "raise flop" includes any pair, any draw and sometimes complete air. The overbet shove is also a pretty reliable tell that villain wants you to fold, because he has a weak pair, draw or air.
If the player was tighter, then he might shove every time he has a set, so it's crucial to have notes on a villain's tendencies. Here, as I said, it's an easy call, as villain is raising the flop 40% of the time. That's maniacal.
This villain will show hands like AT/KT (top pair), A3/A5 (gutter and 1 over), any two clubs, or two overs. You'll have to dodge a few cards on the turn and river, but most of the time your overpair is going to hold here for an easy double up.


Bracelet Winner
 
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Fri Mar 29, 2013, 04:00 PM
(#3)
Mind_V_Gap's Avatar
Since: Oct 2012
Posts: 34
BronzeStar
thanks coach very helpful as always
 

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