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Query Online Example in 'Playing with Conviction'

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Query Online Example in 'Playing with Conviction' - Fri Mar 29, 2013, 07:41 PM
(#1)
80m8ty's Avatar
Since: Mar 2013
Posts: 2
I have a query in with the example program under 'Playing with Conviction'

Raise in example one gives you the 'thumbs up'.

Raise in example two and it says that's a mistake.

If we use the lesson from the previous pages of the rule of Two and four - isn't 40% chance to make another diamond reasonable?

Hole cards are A & 7 diamonds. Flop is As Qd 7s. Diamonds are 10 outs x 4 (two cards to come) = 40%

Am i missing something?

http://www.pokerschoolonline.com/art...ith-conviction
 
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Fri Mar 29, 2013, 08:25 PM
(#2)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,363
Hi 80m8ty,

On the 2nd example, you have Ad7d, but there is only one diamond on the flop. There are 10 diamonds still unaccounted for, so it's fairly likely that one could come on the turn, but you'll still only have a hand with 4 diamonds, not a complete flush.
You have a flush draw (sometimes called a "four-flush") if you have two diamonds in your hand, and there are two more on the flop.

Hope this helps!
Cheers,
Arty


Bracelet Winner
 
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Sat Mar 30, 2013, 01:24 AM
(#3)
CannonLee's Avatar
Since: Dec 2010
Posts: 3,418
Hi 80m8ty,

Welcome to PokerSchoolOnline!


>>click here<< for a complete overview of what PSO has to offer.



Thank you for being a member of www.pokerschoolonline.com and best of luck to you at the tables!





Kind regards,
CannonLee



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Sat Mar 30, 2013, 01:32 AM
(#4)
80m8ty's Avatar
Since: Mar 2013
Posts: 2
Yeah Arty - I had my head up my arse mate. Your dead right, Thanks
 
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Sat Mar 30, 2013, 05:05 AM
(#5)
mtnestegg's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,336
If you actually want to calculate a runner, runner flush the math is pretty simple.
OTT there are 10 outs in 47 unseen cards, or 10/47 =.2126 (rounded) (21.26%)
OTR there are then 9 outs in 46 unseen cards or 9/46 = .1957 (rounded) (19.57%)
You then just multiply the two. .2126 x .1957 = .0416 (rounded) or (4.16%) or roughly 24:1 against


May the tinfoil protect you. MT
 
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Sat Mar 30, 2013, 11:57 AM
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TOO2COO's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
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**moved**


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