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25NL 6-max zoom. Open 99 utg, call +1, flop 9K7 not getting worried yet...

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25NL 6-max zoom. Open 99 utg, call +1, flop 9K7 not getting worried yet... - Mon Apr 01, 2013, 09:25 PM
(#1)
ForrestFive's Avatar
Since: May 2011
Posts: 2,036
Hi,

I'm sometimes worried because in the past being crushed by premium pairs not 3-betting me.

This is a raise 99 utg get called +1 and flop my set on 9K7dd. Now keeping the initiative as the original raiser I bet and the caller calls again.

No reads or history here but it seems we have a station.

Now on the turn Ah we have a little 3b fight. I'm beating tight AK not 3b me pre but not the monsters.

So the hand brings a >>Qh on the river<< a diamond flush missed and I'm looking at a str8 some JTdd?

Only one bet left so I stick it in good or bad?

Picking up on:

1) Gareth's "bet without purpose" - if I'm beat why bet I'm getting called anyway.

2) Felix's "wasted pair theorem" - the villain made a pair of Aces on the turn.

Perhaps I was overly concerned but at 25NL players may be hand ranging me and I'm worse at ranging them.

Last edited by ForrestFive; Mon Apr 01, 2013 at 09:29 PM..
 
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Tue Apr 02, 2013, 01:38 AM
(#2)
nanonoko's Avatar
nanonoko
(nanonoko)
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 350
Supernova
you should look at the range of hands that beat you and lose to you. Just because a hand like JTdd got there there aren't many combos of that relative to the hands you do beat that would call a river bet. There are lots of 2pairs out there or even bottom set that you could get value from. If I'm checking, it's because I'm trying to induce a bluff from a miss diamond draw but I think with this board, a miss diamond draw that has no pair is gonna be rare and more likely these hands have a piece and will check it back if they get the chance to check so I want to bet to try and get called.

Last edited by nanonoko; Thu Apr 10, 2014 at 08:57 PM..
 
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Tue Apr 02, 2013, 01:58 AM
(#3)
GarethC23's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,273
WNNNKS

(What Nanonoko Said)

We definitely beat a lot of other value hands, including but not limited to 77. So that shouldn't be a big issue of concern on this river. We have a value hand, with a good stack to pot ratio for a shove. Ergo, therefore, in other words, entonces, we should value shove! Value hand + Shoving stack = value shove .

Also checking would be a large mistake not just because there aren't enough bluffs to induce action from, but also because this villain might not be willing or able to value shove an AK type hand themselves, or might check back an A7/A9 type hand that they would otherwise call off versus our shove.
 
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Tue Apr 02, 2013, 05:07 PM
(#4)
ForrestFive's Avatar
Since: May 2011
Posts: 2,036
Thanks nanonoko and Gareth,

Was having a scared-y cat moment.


And I learned a new word: entonces

Technically correct, but more accurately, the translation of "entonces" is closer to "in that case".
 

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