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10NL - any fold equity to justify a shove?

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10NL - any fold equity to justify a shove? - Tue Apr 02, 2013, 12:06 PM
(#1)
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
CO is 37/25/1 (77 Hands)
Steal 56%
Fold to 3bet 50%

SB is 18/16/2 (156 Hands)
3bet 8%
Flop Cbet 100% (7)

Q1. What do you think of the preflop call?
Q2. Do you think there is any fold equity OTF to justify a shove with an open-ended str8 draw? (the two tone board is a disadvantage I think)

When the CO just calls the cbet, I put him on TP/MP type of hands like: KQ, QJ, AJ, KT and draws: QT, T9, AT, AQ and some heart draws: A9h-A8h, Q9h-Q8h, 98h which fits in with his 3bet calling range according to his play style.
I think 77/JJ and KJ would have raised flop and AK/KK/QQ would have 4bet pre.

As for the SB, I think he would be cbetting here with his entire range; so perhaps its best to look at his calling range if we do decide to shove here?
So hands like: AA/KK/JJ, AK, AhQh, AhTh, Ah9h, Ah8h - these are the hands that would squeeze and continue to a shove imo.

KJ/KQ/QJ/QT and 77 etc. would have more likely called preflop instead of 3bet.



 
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Tue Apr 02, 2013, 01:59 PM
(#2)
Sandtrap777's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,310
Just my 2cents

It's a fold on the re-raise pre flop and 2 players involved
What exactly are you beating pre flop??
and even more of a fold on the bet on the flop


But hey, anybody can go fishing and catch

Last edited by Sandtrap777; Tue Apr 02, 2013 at 02:01 PM..
 
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Tue Apr 02, 2013, 02:23 PM
(#3)
Croyd93's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 639
Hey Geo,

I agree 100% with Sandtrap. Pre flop I'm gonna fold to the re-raise. Even if both villains ranges are wide, which I don't think is the case, I'm not calling. A hand such as T9s will often flop a draw, the SPR when you call is under 3 which is not god for your hand so just much preflop.

Once you see a flop and there's a bet and a call just fold imo, your 8 out draw might look nice but I don't think you will be getting folds enough to justify a shove. I wouldn't mind it if you thought villains would fold TP easily but at 10nl people can't lay down TP of any kind let alone a pair+draw hands.


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Tue Apr 02, 2013, 03:41 PM
(#4)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,316
When I first replayed this hand, I actually gasped. That's not a good sign for you.
Calling the 2.7x open is fine with T9s on the button in a single-raised pot, as you're deep enough to play a decent drawing hand that's rarely dominated.
But when there's a 3-bet by the SB and a flat call by the CO, it's time to fold.

I calculated the pot odds and if I got my numbers right, you need precisely 25% equity to make a break-even call. At first I thought "There's no way T9s has that much equity against their likely ranges", but it's actually quite close. I was slightly charitable and gave the 3-bettor a 10% range (though his 3-bet rate is actually 8% in your sample) and the the CO a calling range of 20%. T9s' equity against those ranges works out at about 27%. So if everyone was all in with these ranges, you'd make a tiny profit (although you'd lose it to rake).
The problem with T9s is that it's not going to flop the world very often. It's obviously more likely to flop one pair or a gutshot, than a combo straight-flush draw or a boat.
As Oli points out, the stack to pot ratio will not be in your favour. When villains hit the flop well (TP+ and better flush/straight draws) they aren't folding, so if you made a move, you'd be getting it in as an underdog.
On this particular flop, your double-gutter has about 32% equity against the ranges I used, so it doesn't sound so bad, but that's before there's actually some action from the other players. If you shoved here, at least one and possibly both are calling. The 3-bettor's continuance range is super strong on this flop. He'll show you AK at worst, and a set or AA the rest of the time.
Folding the flop would definitely be wise, but folding to the 3-bet would have meant you were never in this tricky spot in the first place.

Hope this helps!
Cheers,
Arty

P.S. Another way to play this hand would be to 3-bet (light) instead of calling the first open. Since CO's range is relatively weak, you'll take it down pre quite often, and have position and a decent hand if he calls. Also, if you take this line, if the blinds happen to wake up with a hand, they'll usually be cold 4-betting, making it a lot easier to fold your hand, since they'd be repping a true monster and not giving you a great price.


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Last edited by ArtySmokesPS; Tue Apr 02, 2013 at 03:48 PM..
 
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Tue Apr 02, 2013, 04:25 PM
(#5)
RockerguyAA's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,089
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ArtySmokesPS View Post
P.S. Another way to play this hand would be to 3-bet (light) instead of calling the first open. Since CO's range is relatively weak, you'll take it down pre quite often, and have position and a decent hand if he calls. Also, if you take this line, if the blinds happen to wake up with a hand, they'll usually be cold 4-betting, making it a lot easier to fold your hand, since they'd be repping a true monster and not giving you a great price.
+1. I really like this idea.
 
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Wed Apr 03, 2013, 05:13 AM
(#6)
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
Quote:
Originally Posted by ArtySmokesPS View Post
I calculated the pot odds and if I got my numbers right, you need precisely 25% equity to make a break-even call. At first I thought "There's no way T9s has that much equity against their likely ranges", but it's actually quite close. I was slightly charitable and gave the 3-bettor a 10% range (though his 3-bet rate is actually 8% in your sample) and the the CO a calling range of 20%. T9s' equity against those ranges works out at about 27%.
Hey Arty, okay lets go through this again a bit.

I wasn't that generous with my ranging. I gave the SB sqz to be exactly 8% {TT+, A7s+, ATo+} and the CO calling range 12.1% {JJ-22, AQs-ATs, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, AQo-ATo, KQo} against those ranges we are 26.365% and we have pot odds of 25%. Equity > Pot odds so why not call?

OTF, I assume SB will cbet his entire range on that board and I expect CO to raise there with his strong hands (2pair +) so if CO will call with TP/MD + draws {AQs, ATs, KQs, KTs, QTs, T9s, 98s, AQo, ATo, KQo} then we are also getting a close price to call and see the turn; does that not justify a call to hit our 8 outer (6 clean since a heart will put us in a tough spot too)?

This is very marginal, that I completely comprehend but in theory if we are getting the right price to call, then why not call?
 
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Wed Apr 03, 2013, 06:00 AM
(#7)
Croyd93's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 639
I don't have time to write a lengthy reply but I'll try get around to it later, however it's worth noting that pot odds can't be used preflop. Pot odds refer to your equity for when your hand sees a showdown, i.e your hot/cold equity. If we knew villains would check it down postflop then pot odds could be applied, or if the villains were super short and all the money was going in then they could be used but as they will be action postflop pot odds alone cannot be used to justify a call. Position, SPR, equity and reads along with many other things have to be used together to help us decide what to do.

As stated earlier the depth of money doesn't lend itself to calling the 3bet preflop so I would fold. I find Arty's 3bet line preflop interesting, I'll come back later when I have some more time to take another look.

Good discussion guys.

Oli


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Wed Apr 03, 2013, 11:03 AM
(#8)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,316
Quote:
Originally Posted by geoVARTA View Post
Pot odds so why not call?
Oli's already answered this, but note that I said "if you were all in" in my first post. The price we have to pay (calling the 3-bet) is only to see the flop, not all five community cards. With a hand like KQ or JJ, most of your equity would be realised on the flop, as you'd be aiming to make top pair or an overpair/set, so calling wouldn't be too bad. With T9s, top pair is not going to be good, and we'll usually need to hit 3 of the 5 community cards to make our hand (straight/flush).
Quote:
Originally Posted by geoVARTA View Post
OTF, I assume SB will cbet his entire range on that board and I expect CO to raise there with his strong hands (2pair +) so if CO will call with TP/MD + draws {AQs, ATs, KQs, KTs, QTs, T9s, 98s, AQo, ATo, KQo} then we are also getting a close price to call and see the turn; does that not justify a call to hit our 8 outer (6 clean since a heart will put us in a tough spot too)?
This is very marginal, that I completely comprehend but in theory if we are getting the right price to call, then why not call?
I think villain 2 would make a smaller c-bet (or even check) if he missed this flop, and his bet looks like he's committing to stacking off here, but let's assume his range is unchanged. If so, he has a made hand over 55% of the time. (His range has one pair 50% of the time, and a set 6.5%. He has ace high, with some sort of gutshot or backdoor draw, about 40% of the time.)
The CO might call the flop bet with hands like AQ/AT, but I think his range is a bit tighter. Either way, your hand's equity against these two guys has probably shrunk to about 22%.
Funnily enough, the pot lays immediate odds of 22% on a call, so once more it's close. It's just that there are only 3 completely clean outs (non heart 8s, because if you think the CO calls flop with AT, you don't want to hit a queen.)
I just don't think this passive line is +EV, because if you miss on the turn, you'll have a decent price to call off the rest of your stack, even if the turn pairs the board, meaning you might be drawing dead.


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