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puke raising??

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puke raising?? - Wed Apr 03, 2013, 11:20 AM
(#1)
wikked76's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 385


PokerStars - $0.05 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BTN): $13.52
SB: $5.02 (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 20.93, 3Bet Preflop: 4.03, Hands: 352)
BB: $8.84 (VPIP: 14.39, PFR: 7.91, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 286)
UTG: $7.68 (VPIP: 40.00, PFR: 30.00, 3Bet Preflop: 11.11, Hands: 21)
MP: $5.47 (VPIP: 13.29, PFR: 9.75, 3Bet Preflop: 2.40, Hands: 1,040)
CO: $5.29 (VPIP: 29.41, PFR: 23.53, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 19)

SB posts SB $0.02, BB posts BB $0.05

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.07) Hero has 6:club: A:club:

UTG raises to $0.10, fold, fold, Hero calls $0.10, fold, fold

Flop: ($0.27, 2 players) Q:diamond: 6:diamond: 8:club:
UTG bets $0.15, Hero calls $0.15

Turn: ($0.57, 2 players) 5:club:
UTG checks, Hero bets $0.30, UTG raises to $0.95, Hero raises to $2.55, UTG calls $1.60

River: ($5.67, 2 players) 4:heart:
UTG bets $4.88 and is all-in, fold

as played, villain raises small, UTG, cbets flop, XR turn and calls my 3bet, then jams river.

my plan was to take it down on the turn with the big 3bet on the turn which should look strong (i think).
had 3rd pair and the nut FD

i can never call the donk shove there on the river, i've my lesson well, hehe...

question is, issit the right play, +EV in the long run?
when checked on the turn and i bet, get raised, i rather 3bet there then flat call to try and scoop it there n then.

any other better lines to take in this scenario?
 
Old
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Wed Apr 03, 2013, 05:30 PM
(#2)
Sandtrap777's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,310
FOLD
 
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Thu Apr 04, 2013, 10:35 AM
(#3)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,510
(Head Trainer)
Hi wikked,

First with this guy being pretty LAGgy thus far I would prefer to 3-bet him in position here. We have the best hand often enough and it makes our hand much easier to play. Neither villain in the blinds looks like someone I want to invite along for the ride either so I think 3-betting to iso and folding to a 4-bet is preferable to me here.

Flop float is fine unless he routinely barrels turn, in which case it's dicey, but we don't have enough info to know what his turn barreling frequency is yet.

Betting the turn when checked to is reasonable, but I don't like your 3-bet after he check-raises... You said the reason for this was a semi-bluff, but what is your fold equity? To answer that question you have to range him, which you didn't do on the turn (or at least didn't share in the post)... this line looks strong by him and is unlikely to be a bluff. His range is pretty wide pre so he can have a lot of strong hands on this turn, including all the sets, 2 pairs, and even a straight. He could also have AA or KK and being going for value as if he normally plays loose-aggressive he's probably used to people playing back at him frequently. The point is I think your fold equity is zero against his entire value range, and there are a lot of hands possible in this range. Some % of this range will 4-bet us all in on the turn as well and deny us our draw, which stinks holding a draw to the nuts. I think we should just call his turn check-raise to .95c, and fold to a river bet if we don't improve.

You said you'd rather 3b and scoop it then and there on the turn but when you factor ranging into the decision the conclusion I come to is that our fold equity on the 3b is very small, and we are setting ourselves up to be denied our equity in the nut flush draw. We are lucky he flatted and let us see the river here so we got to realize this equity anyway, although we charged ourself a premium to do so.

I would always call the turn check-raise btw, as his range rates to be strong here and we have picked up the back door draw so he's more wary of diamonds than clubs. If we river the nuts I expect him to often bet the river into us and this type of opponent will not like to fold to our river raise, so our turn call should be very profitable.


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Thu Apr 04, 2013, 02:01 PM
(#4)
wikked76's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 385
thanks for the analysis Dave
 

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