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Pc iii

Pc iii - Wed Apr 03, 2013, 11:23 AM
wikked76's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 385

PokerStars - $0.05 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BTN): $5.00
SB: $5.57 (VPIP: 9.09, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 11)
BB: $4.78 (VPIP: 23.19, PFR: 17.39, 3Bet Preflop: 10.34, Hands: 70)
UTG: $3.09 (VPIP: 32.03, PFR: 18.36, 3Bet Preflop: 3.85, Hands: 267)
MP: $5.31 (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 20.93, 3Bet Preflop: 4.03, Hands: 352)
CO: $4.78 (VPIP: 33.33, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 6)

SB posts SB $0.02, BB posts BB $0.05

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.07) Hero has Q:club: A:club:

fold, MP raises to $0.15, fold, Hero raises to $0.45, fold, fold, MP calls $0.30

Flop: ($0.97, 2 players) 4:heart: Q:diamond: Q:heart:
MP checks, Hero bets $0.75, MP calls $0.75

Turn: ($2.47, 2 players) 9:club:
MP checks, Hero bets $1.55, MP raises to $4.11 and is all-in, Hero calls $2.25 and is all-in

River: ($10.07, 2 players) J:heart:

i think i had to call here, BUT was it the right decision, +EV in the long run???
Wed Apr 03, 2013, 12:59 PM
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,316
I'm going broke here 99% of the time, because the only hand I'm worried about is 99 that hit a 2-outer.
Villain opened in MP and flatted a 3-bet. His range is heavily weighted to medium pairs that aren't strong enough to 4-bet, but seem (to him) to be too strong to fold. He'll usually call here with KQs too. (Note: Calling 3-bets out of position is a huge leak).
The flop is a great one to c-bet, and a hand like TT is probably check-calling here, because he doesn't put you on a queen. Most hands that called the flop should be folding to the turn barrel, because you're unlikely to barrel with worse than trips on this board, as it's not particularly wet.
His check-raise basically only reps KQ and 99. You're crushing the former and have a few outs to beat the latter. If he's consciously turning a hand like TT or JJ into a bluff, then he's making a big mistake, but 5NL villains do this sort of thing way too often, because they simply don't believe you flopped trips.
If he has 99, then he hit a 2-outer, but most of the time, he's going crazy with one pair, perhaps thinking he needs to "protect" it from river overcards or draws.

So, imo, this is definitely a +EV call. I'd only consider folding if villain was much nittier, never bluffs, and has a propensity to go set mining in 3-bet pots.

Bracelet Winner
Wed Apr 03, 2013, 04:15 PM
wikked76's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 385
thanks for the analysis Arty

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