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10nl Reg tables - A9s played badly, worth bluffing the river?

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10nl Reg tables - A9s played badly, worth bluffing the river? - Wed Apr 03, 2013, 06:53 PM
(#1)
Croyd93's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 639
Only my second orbit at the table and no reads on the players yet.

I think I played this hand badly and recognised it during the hand, however I'm still unsure on the best line.



Post session notes....

I raised pre and continuation bet an A high monotone flop for value and protection. 2 callers neither of which I had solid reads on at the time. The turn paired the board at which point I felt my hand could still be good but I didn’t think I could get called by worse as a lot of FD would muck as the board paired. I checked and the BTN bet 1/3 pot, the BB folded and I decided to call. I felt he could bet worse pairs containing a club as well as a wide array of Ax hands.

The river came a 4th club and as I contemplated what to do I realised my turn call was bad as weaker pairs with a FD would check behind and all aces that bet are better than mine. At this point I thought the most profitable action would be to bluff to get the aces in his range that didn't contain a club to fold.



So I still think I played the turn bad but I'm unsure what the best line is to take, x/f or b/f I really don't like check calling as it doesn't make for easy river decisions.

On the river I'm unsure how good my bluff is, to break even it has to be succesful around 38% of the time. If we assume he'd bet and fold to the river bet with AT/AJ/AQ that don't conatain a club that's 27 combos that fold. If we assume he'll call with all 6x combos then that another 67/56/68s that's 18 combos. If he'll continue with Tc9x and Tx9x that's 8 more combos and finally if he continues with Kc9x+/Qc9x+/JcTx+ thats 44 combos.

That's 27/97=0.278

So he's folding roughly 28% of the time thus the bet isn't profitable, does that look about right? I've literally just done it now so please correct me if I'm wrong. Also any thoughts on my assigned range would be great.

As always, thanks for the ongoing help and support.

Oli


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Wed Apr 03, 2013, 07:50 PM
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RockerguyAA's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,089
BronzeStar
I would like to offer my opinion here, but it isn't really a legitimate analyses. I'm a bit at a loss myself. Because it is very difficult to know what our best play is on the turn or river with this hand it leads me to the conclusion that checking the flop may be the better play here. There are very few cards in the deck that will be good for us on the turn/river, possibly none unless we hit runner runner for a boat. Maybe a delayed c-bet on the turn if it is checked around? If button bets flop we could try check/call flop, check/call non-club turn. If we take this line and button barrels all 3 streets, I would just let it go on the river unless faced with a very small bet.
 
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Thu Apr 04, 2013, 08:55 AM
(#3)
PSO-xflixx's Avatar
Since: Jun 2011
Posts: 1,119
(Live Trainer)
Hey Oli,

I think you are making life too hard for yourself by taking a nonstandard line against unknown opponents. You can't know how loose either of them will peel the flop here - especially considering that an overcaller does not always need a strong hand or draw once he gets good odds closing the action. That's why I would always keep up the betting here on a blank turn like that. We can definitely get calls from worse and as a sideeffect we make life so much easier for ourselves.

As played I don't like turning our hand into a bluff too much since a) a big part of villains range may well contain clubs (people hate folding singlecard flushes) and b) we cant usually represent too many strong clubs in the eyes of many opponents since we checked the turn.


Live Trainer



 
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Thu Apr 04, 2013, 03:46 PM
(#4)
nanonoko's Avatar
nanonoko
(nanonoko)
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 350
Supernova
Hello,

Definitely not an easy spot. I would definitely be a bit worried though on the turn after you get called on the flop in 2 spots. I think sometimes you will be ahead but you can easily be behind just as easily. I can say that if I was debating between check/call or bet, I would prefer betting. In both situations you are putting in extra money (let's assume the same amount), and if I was putting in extra money I would prefer betting to try to get them to fold their weak hands that have equity such as a pocket pair with a club or some single club type hand. Now imagine, a bet was going to come in if you check, now you've put in the same amount of money but you've given them the chance to see a free card and since you don't have a club that isn't very beneficial to you.

That's not to say that betting is better than the other option of check/folding though. I think if you check and the player in position chooses to bet, I would probably toss my hand. Although it kind of depends on what the 1st guy does. The reason check/folding might be viable is that, this player who is in position is betting into 2 players after a bet has been called on the flop which is reasonably strong. Even if he's behind, he definitely has solid equity with any club out there and maybe some additional outs that is hard to pick out. We also would be out of position and hard to determine optimal river plays. For example, it would be nicer to be in position for you to do this river lead on the 4 club because you can see if he reacts by continue betting or checking because he's scared. Shows the importance of position when it's a choice.

The thing about poker is that there is no absolutes, and in this example you did choose to check and I would usually advocate a c/f here but when you checked and the player in position bets so small and the 1st guy folds, I would be inclined to call here. I feel that my opponent would want to protect his hand if he had a stronger hand, regardless you are getting reasonable odds to call here and hopefully you improve or it just goes check/check here on the river.

Hopefully, I've given you insight as to some things to think about when making poker decisions. There is no absolute answer and there are definitely a lot of potential angles we can't foresee such as a small bet like this when you check.

Last edited by nanonoko; Thu Apr 10, 2014 at 08:57 PM..
 

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