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5NL - TPTK raised OTT

5NL - TPTK raised OTT - Fri Apr 05, 2013, 08:21 AM
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
17/11/3 (311 Hands)
3Bet 6%
Fold to Cbet 46%

16/9/11 (64 Hands)
3Bet 5%
Flop Agg Freq 67% (9) - Turn Agg Freq 67% (6) - River Agg Freq 33% (3)

I planned to c/f flop as the flop is somewhat connected and will get called by a lot of PP and draw type of hands. There might be reason to bet for value against draw type of hands but being OOP would leave me guessing turn a lot.

Once it got checked through and we hit our K, I bet for value. repping exactly what I had a Kx hand but now we get raised. So question is Fold/Call/Raise?

When we bet turn, I think it's obvious to villain that we have a Kx. I'm not sure I can see him raising here with worse for value, But is he able to raise here for a bluff to take me off the hand that I represented?? I think that is too far fetched.

I think villain has a slow played set/2pair or a made st8 (79s that he decided to play multiway IP); he can't be raising there with a FD since I'm holding the Ah which makes it less likely that he would play his hand aggressively especially OTT.

The only hand that we can think off that is less than 2Pair is AK. But calling his raise will leave us guessing river; I can't think of any good scenario on the river where the hand would go check-check.

Although his aggression is 11; I think over a 64 hand sample that could be misleading.

I'm considering a fold here. What do you think?

Fri Apr 05, 2013, 11:43 AM
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,324
I like your analysis of the situation and the reasons for not c-betting the flop. The turn looks like a fairly standard Baluga theorem spot to me. The button nearly always has you crushed. It looks like a slow-played set or straight to me. If he had the nuts on the flop, then checking behind makes sense in a way, because he wants you to improve on the turn, so he can get a bet out of you. Villain's AF is very high over this small sample, but I'd give him credit for a monster here. I'm folding and feeling pretty good about it.

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