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10NL 6 Max Straight River Decision

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10NL 6 Max Straight River Decision - Sat Apr 06, 2013, 01:04 AM
(#1)
TheAwesomeNW's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 474
Villain's 24/10, AF 1.4 over 51 hands, Flop FCB: 67%(3)

No notes that he's a limper or whatsoever. Had played with him less than 15 hands before this hand came up.



OTR I raised for thin value. He could call with air, going for the "split". When he shoves, it screams strength. He's entitled to have T9, T8, JT and backdoor flushes as well. On the other hand, could he be putting us on air, shoving to fold us off our "split"?

We're getting good pot odds of 2.5:1(28%) to make the call. What should we do?
 
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Sat Apr 06, 2013, 04:20 AM
(#2)
GarethC23's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,273
Hey Awesome

This is an ugly ugly spot. We block the only reasonable combinations of JTs in our opponent's hand with the Tc and the Td. So we can rule those out. Therefore the hands he is most likely doing this for value with are two club hands that backdoored a flush. Unfortunately there are more of those than meets the eye.

Can you think of them all? I can see AXcc in a few ways, 56cc, 67cc, 54cc. There are a number of possibilities.

First though, I would just shove over his river bet. That way he can worry about calling to chop and we can extract maximum value from the hand. Sometimes we get burned by a flush as in this case, but 1) we block any JTs he can have and 2) we have a club blocker in general. So we should make more money by shoving than it costs us given his effective stack.

That being said, as played, I fold. People don't have bluff ranges here and the bottom of his range to do this with is TX. Unfortunately its quite ambitious to think his range is predominately TX here as opposed to backdoored flushes. I don't think our price is good enough. This is a good case of a great price being misleading -- its a good price yes, but how often are we actually good? And when we are calling to chop our price gets twice as bad since when we are good we only get half the spoils.

 
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Sun Apr 07, 2013, 01:01 AM
(#3)
TheAwesomeNW's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 474
Thanks Gareth, will try shoving over the River bet in future similar scenarios. That's a new move to me, extracting max value through shoving on this deceptive board texture. As played, I stationed him down and he showed Ac5c. Bad call
 

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