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NL2 FR: KK, Dry Board, Has he Aces?

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NL2 FR: KK, Dry Board, Has he Aces? - Sat Apr 06, 2013, 09:44 AM
(#1)
d2p22's Avatar
Since: Aug 2012
Posts: 18
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Hi!

I just had exactly this problem:

(No read on any opp, just joined table)


Preflop: I wanted to have some action and was in position, so a bit less than 3Bet

Flop: Perfectly dry board, I value betted to get hopefully both players to call (Propability of an ace on the turn is about 6% I think)
Turn: Flush gets possible, just about 16% (8 outs) - he snapp check-calls
River: Flush did not hit Now starts my problem:


He just snapp check-called me all the way, there was only one Hand I could imagine someone to do this: Aces!

1. After his check: Should I have valuebet anyway? There are ONLY Aces to beat me.
2. After the reraise all-in of him: Should I fold?



I decided to call the all in (probably wrong)

Last edited by d2p22; Sat Apr 06, 2013 at 09:51 AM..
 
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Sat Apr 06, 2013, 12:27 PM
(#2)
TrumpinJoe's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 4,557
With a read I would not rule out AA, KK, QQ, TT & AQ. I would think any of those hands could check-raise the river as well as the is $2NL. Against that range you are ahead 65:35. Looks like a call to me.
 
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Sat Apr 06, 2013, 01:23 PM
(#3)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,346
To put villain on AA is to see monsters under the bed. Think of his entire range for the line he took and work out if you can get value from it.
If villain has aces here, he played them very weirdly. When he's UTG and you 3-bet, it's standard to 4-bet AA and get it in pre-flop in a cooler situation, because you should only be 3-betting vs UTG with KK+ yourself. It's especially true in this case, because there was a call in the blinds. Flatting AA oop in a 3-way pot is just way too risky.

When he merely flats the 3-bet, I'm putting him on QQ-TT, which are hands he should actually fold, if he views you as solid, but villains have this weird idea that a hand like QQ/JJ is "too weak to 4-bet, but too strong to fold", so they call. It's just possible villain flats with AK/AQ too, but that would be equally bad, if not worse.

You got a pretty good flop, so betting when villains checks to you is good. You're losing to TT (and the unlikely aces) but JJ and QQ are calling here, expecting to be in good shape. Your bet of 12c into 50c is way too small when you have two opponents. Define your hand with a bet of at least half pot, and maybe 2/3 pot. You can also get value from Tx hands and maybe 99-88 if the small blind made a speculative call pre, as he'll usually put you on AK.
I hate the turn card. The hand I most fear (QQ) just made a set. You have to bet, I think, but the only hands you're beating are JJ and the unlikely AK/AQ that made a loose call on the flop (because you made it cheap to do so).

I think I just check behind on the river. It's really hard to get action from worse here. QQ and TT (which should actually be donking for value) will check-raise. JJ/AK are check-folding. The only hands that just call a river bet is AQ. You beat that, but it's a bit thin to bet when the rest of villain's range has you crushed.
When villain's range either has you crushed or is so weak that it's not calling a river bet, don't make the river bet. Without a read that villain overvalues TPTK on wet boards, you definitely can't call the raise.

EDIT: If villain's value range for CRAI on the river includes TPTK as well as sets and overpairs, it's (somewhat bizarrely) exactly a coin-flip.

Board: T:diamond:3:heart:5:spade: Q:diamond: 9:spade:
       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    50.00%  48.00%   2.00% { KdKs }
MP3    50.00%  48.00%   2.00% { QQ+, TT, AQs, AQo }

Take AQ out of his raising range, and you're completely crushed, winning 0% of the time, and only chopping if he has the other KK.


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Last edited by ArtySmokesPS; Sat Apr 06, 2013 at 01:33 PM..
 
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Sun Apr 07, 2013, 06:49 PM
(#4)
d2p22's Avatar
Since: Aug 2012
Posts: 18
BronzeStar
Hi

Thank you for the nice review!

Is it really possible to put people on such a close range in 2NL? (I interpreted the TT, QQ+ and AQs/o as the given range of the opp)
I mean what if they did some kind of wrong play (raising 33 preflop) and then just slowplayed a set? With no draw (just a very unlikely straight draw) slowplaying would be possible. Shouldn't I count all these hands to there range too?


Thank you,

Jonas
 
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Sun Apr 07, 2013, 07:55 PM
(#5)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,346
I generally give unknown 2NL villains way more credit than they deserve. But I rely heavily on stats and notes to sort the fish from the regs with colour-coding. When villains open UTG, they should only be doing so with a very tight/strong range (TT+, AQ+), but a lot of players are not positionally aware at all.
It's also quite common for 2NL villains to call 3-bets with marginal hands, which is why I sometimes make oversized 3-bets with monsters like QQ+. If a villain is bad enough to call a 3-bet with 33 or QJs or KTo, then I want to start building a big pot when I'm way ahead. Making the pot bigger also makes the hand easier to play.
That is to say, if you make a larger 3-bet, the size of the pot on the flop is big in relation to the remaining stacks (a low "stack to pot ratio"), and you can easily commit to stacking off when you flop TPTK or an overpair.
If villain shows up with bottom set here, or QT or KJ, then it's pretty sick, but I try and laugh about it. I just think to myself "I could have gone all in pre-flop and he'd probably call with those hands. KK will be hold 85% of the time vs 33/QT/KJ, so I'm making a ton of money against this villain in the long run".

The result of this hand isn't shown in the replayer. Did he really show up with aces, or did he flop a set, or suckout a backdoor straight? If it's the latter, your small bets pre- and on the flop allowed him to do so, so I definitely recommend betting bigger with your big overpair. There's not a lot you can do if villain slowplayed 33 all the way to river, but I hope you took a note on his passive play if that's what he showed up with.


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Sun Apr 07, 2013, 08:04 PM
(#6)
TrumpinJoe's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 4,557
It is wise to operate under that your opponent is an average to slightly above average player for that limit until they prove otherwise. The average player at $2 NL, at least before Black Friday, make a lot of mistakes so I would not put them on as narrow a range as Arty does. And I wouldn't expect the average 2 NL player to raise pre with small pairs.
 
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Mon Apr 08, 2013, 12:51 PM
(#7)
d2p22's Avatar
Since: Aug 2012
Posts: 18
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I am doing a lot of notes + plus labeling loose and tight players. Loose players are all players with an vpip preflop >30%. Tight players I label when they have vpip preflop and pfr <9%.

I also do a lot of notes on players who played a hand really strange to me. Although I never know if they are just really bad or just above my level. There should be some kind of class for how to make and use notes in micros!




This is the - funny and kind of sad - outcome:


Jonas
 
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Mon Apr 08, 2013, 01:23 PM
(#8)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,346
Quote:
Originally Posted by d2p22 View Post
I am doing a lot of notes + plus labeling loose and tight players. Loose players are all players with an vpip preflop >30%. Tight players I label when they have vpip preflop and pfr <9%.
I also do a lot of notes on players who played a hand really strange to me. Although I never know if they are just really bad or just above my level. There should be some kind of class for how to make and use notes in micros!
The labelling is great. I really wouldn't worry about players being "above your level". The winners at 2NL play a very straightforward game. They bet/raise when they have the goods, fold when they don't, and seldom bluff. There are lots of bad players that might think they are on a higher level, but they are actually spew-monkeys that take lines that miss value, or they make weird bluffs that have almost no chance of success.
Very loose players are your main target at the table. When you have a big hand, you want to valuebet it to death, because these players call so often. It's hilarious to see this villain show up with A9 here, but it's clear you lost value pre-flop and on the flop and turn. If this is guy is calling on the flop with ace high, charge him the maximum for making such a bad play, especially as he's probably not calling the river (the biggest bet) if he doesn't make a pair. Get your value while you're sure you're ahead.

I think there's a video about note-taking somewhere in the archive, but I'll be making a blog post on this subject at some point too.


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