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5nl 6max, what if...

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5nl 6max, what if... - Sat Apr 06, 2013, 01:06 PM
(#1)
Espada_Nu.4's Avatar
Since: May 2012
Posts: 148


villain is unknown

im posting this hand because this situation comes up quite often and thinking how should i proceed if called, raised or shoved

if he calls and turn is a blank, do i fire again?
if he raises, say 1/3 of the remaining stack, do i call or shove having 2 overs and the nut FD?
if he shoves, do i call for the same reason as above?
 
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Sat Apr 06, 2013, 07:56 PM
(#2)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
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Hi Espada.

I'd like to weigh in with my 2 cents if I could...

When I lack info on my opp, my answers to your questions are as follows:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Espada_Nu.4 View Post
if he calls and turn is a blank, do i fire again?
Nope, you check/fold.

- You really cannot range an unknown opp effectively, so it is probably better to assume any unpaired hand is behind a good part of the time if he called your C Bet.

- If you are behind, you cannot tell how much fold equity you might have with further aggression because he is unknown.

- The low SPR you created going to the flop with your 3bet argues for playing flopped top pairs "fast" on most board textures, but really does NOT argue for getting in on marginal draws; especially with 1 to come.

(Note: You seem to over value your draw here, and express that in the desire to continue implicit in your questions. You hold a single card draw to the nut flush, and 2 board overs; That does NOT mean you have 15 outs though. Realistically I would discount your true outs to around 8, especially versus unknown opps. Consider the value of continuing in this hand with about 17.4% chance to spike good, versus the ~33% chance to hit 15 outs would give with one to come. The numbers are not pretty Espada...I'd really like to point you to the great PSO videos on board texture and ranging opponents, and the REM process you can find on the tab at the top. You also might want to google some additional material on reading board texture and discounting outs specifically. :-))

Quote:
Originally Posted by Espada_Nu.4 View Post
if he raises, say 1/3 of the remaining stack, do i call or shove having 2 overs and the nut FD?
(I am going to assume you mean that you CHECK a blank turn, and see a 1/3rd bet of the effective stack, or around $1.25, right?)

Again, this is a clear fold on this depth of money with 1 to come after discounting outs which might be dirty.

If you DO credit yourself with all 15 potential outs, then a shove that gets called will net you around 1.68 to 1 in implied odds, and you need about 2 to 1 odds. Since you have no clue how often this villain might fold to a shove I think I would tend to play this one a bit slower, with the intent of check/calling bets of around half pot here, instead of insta-jamming. I say this largely because I can assume that he will probably pay me SOMETHING if I spike the river.

Still, speculating on what I'd do "if all 15 outs were good" is pretty destructive I think. In this spot it is not possible to really think all 15 would be good.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Espada_Nu.4 View Post
if he shoves, do i call for the same reason as above?
No; for the same reasons as above.

In closing...

I do not find fault at all with your 3bet pre, or your C bet here...

Both of these actions when you hold AKo are pretty standard, and the type of hand you really play for with AKo is a top/top holding, NOT a flush draw. That is exactly the sort of hand that benefits a ton from the low SPR you created going to the flop by 3betting.

One thing I would like to say: you really want to be sure to BALANCE this sort of aggro line pre flop and on the flop with flat calls pre flop versus unknown opps when you are out of position. If you flat here pre flop the pot stays a lot smaller, you do not feel the same "need" to make a C bet or a donk lead on your flush draw, and the medium SPR makes playing a medium strength draw a lot easier when the opp C Bets smaller amounts.

When you lack info the thing you have to remember (whether you select an aggro line or a more passive one) when oop is that you should be ready to adjust your line when something happens that you might not have planned. You also should be ready to give up if that is the only viable option in the face of an information deficeit.

My opinion here is that assuming any continuation on a blank turn is a "must" (as seems implicit in your questions) is failing to adjust to the realities of the hand. While this opp MIGHT be on a lesser draw, chances are a lot better that he is on a made hand of some sort if he calls your flop bet (which he doesn't in reality, but which is an assumption in your questions). Because you lack info on him you cannot know what type of fold equity your subsequent actions may have, so it is far better to play a bit softer in hopes that you can get to the river cheaply.

Continuing aggro moves on a blank turn when the unknown opp has basically said "I have something" seems way too likely to be spew when you do not have info to say otherwise.

Hope it helps.

-JDean
 
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Sat Apr 06, 2013, 08:48 PM
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ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,346
Quote:
Originally Posted by Espada_Nu.4 View Post
im posting this hand because this situation comes up quite often and thinking how should i proceed if called, raised or shoved

if he calls and turn is a blank, do i fire again?
if he raises, say 1/3 of the remaining stack, do i call or shove having 2 overs and the nut FD?
if he shoves, do i call for the same reason as above?
Firstly, I want to thank JD for making a great post that should give you lots to think about. It's great when PSO members get involved in these threads.

Secondly, I don't think this situation comes up all that often. Monotone flops are fairly rare for one thing, but to have two overs and the NFD is also somewhat rare.

Before proceeding, I'm going to take a leaf out Dave's book and ask you a question.
What sort of range do you put villain on when he just calls your 3-bet in position? Is it medium pairs and suited Broadways, or is it much looser or tighter?


Bracelet Winner
 
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Sun Apr 07, 2013, 02:39 AM
(#4)
Espada_Nu.4's Avatar
Since: May 2012
Posts: 148
Quote:
Originally Posted by ArtySmokesPS View Post
I don't think this situation comes up all that often.

What sort of range do you put villain on when he just calls your 3-bet in position? Is it medium pairs and suited Broadways, or is it much looser or tighter?
when you are multitabling, it does come up often!
the range im putting him on is 88-QQ, suited connectors, AK or even AQ

P.S.
the actions i mentioned done by villain( raise and shove, except call) are done in the flop not on later streets
 
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Sun Apr 07, 2013, 01:00 PM
(#5)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,346
Quote:
Originally Posted by Espada_Nu.4 View Post
the range im putting him on is 88-QQ, suited connectors, AK or even AQ
Cool. Now we have to think about how that range connects with the flop.

As you've no doubt noticed, you generally have a lot of fold equity when you c-bet a monotone flop, because they are pretty hard to hit. If villain completely missed, with a hand like 87s in the wrong suit, he's obviously folding to any bet. At the other end of the scale, he's going absolutely nowhere if he has a made flush with 87hh, or hands like KJhh and JThh (that are already strong, but have a straight flush redraw). Notice there aren't many combos of made flushes, because we have the Ah and also because the 9h on the board knocks out a few suited connectors. I think we're looking solely at KhJh,JhTh,9h8h,8h7h,7h6h for 5 total made flush combos.
Pocket pairs either have a set here (QQ and 99) or an underpair. Sets are obviously not folding on the flop. They are usually raising, just like most made flushes are. But betting is good here, because villain's range also contains some relatively weak one pair hands that cannot call a bet. Villain cannot call with hands like two black jacks or tens, for example. So betting the flop makes sense as a semi-bluff, because some hands that are beating you will fold.
There are a few combos that are currently beating you, but you have fairly good equity against. I'm referring to hands like JJ and TT with one heart. The flush draw is obviously no good for these hands, but I'm pretty sure they're calling. 88 with a heart might also call.
If villain has AQ, he has top pair top kicker, but he can't have the flush draw to go with it. I suspect he'll call one street, however.

The first significant point to recognise here is that all the hands that call the flop are made hands. They are at least one pair, but there are also some made flushes and sets. You only have ace high, but you can beat the entire range if you make the nut flush and the board doesn't do anything stupid like pairing on the river. (Against JJ and TT, you also have your overcard outs, and versus AQ, a king will do.)
The second point to recognise is that all the hands that call on the flop will not be folding on the turn if it's a blank.
And that's where the trouble comes. If the turn is a blank, you have no fold equity, so your 2nd barrel semi-bluff has no hope of taking down the pot. What's worse is that you are out of position and villain will likely bet almost his entire range, be it super strong (flushes/sets) or marginal (two jacks with a flush draw). I think you can check-call a smallish turn bet, but only if you have good implied odds (stacks are still deep). I think your equity against the range villain is betting the turn with (AQ, QQ, 99, various made flushes, JhJx ThTx) is going to be around 22% or so, so you'd need a pretty small bet from villain to make the call. And when the river is another blank, it's just horrible, because you've put in most of your stack and you're left with ace high. It would seem that this is one of those situations where the amount of money you put into the pot makes you feel committed to stacking off, but since you are semi-bluffing, it's OK to not stack off.

To re-iterate, villain's continuance range when you c-bet the flop is probably QQ,99,JdJh,JhJs,JhJc,TdTh,ThTs,ThTc,KhJh,JhTh,9h8h ,8h7h,7h6h,AQo

Against that range, you'd win at showdown 37% if you somehow got all in on the flop, but I don't think the weaker hands (TT etc) are stacking off immediately. If villain makes anything more than a minraise on the flop, I'm insta-folding, because you're crushed by his value-shoving range.

Hope this helps!


Bracelet Winner
 
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Mon Apr 08, 2013, 05:14 PM
(#6)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Espada_Nu.4 View Post

P.S.
the actions i mentioned done by villain( raise and shove, except call) are done in the flop not on later streets
Thanks.

It doesn't change my thinking MUCH, but it does change it a little...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Espada_Nu.4 View Post
if he calls and turn is a blank, do i fire again?
No. Same reasons as my above answer.

Basically any continuation by you on a blank turn pretty much sticks you HARD (unless perhaps you make a pretty weak blocking bet, to which you have no clue how the villian will react). You lack info on your fold equity from continued aggression, so villain's OTF action (a flat) has to argue you might not have much FE. If you lack FE you must figure you are getting called for any standard type bet, and your chances of hitting enough to win (when villain has given all signs he has something by calling OTF) are not going to get the right price.

The lack of info STRONGLY argues against firing the 2nd bullet imho.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Espada_Nu.4 View Post
if he raises, say 1/3 of the remaining stack, do i call or shove having 2 overs and the nut FD?
After you 3bet PF and then C bet OTF, and see a villain raise OTF of around $1.25 (1/3rd the effective stack remaining, which is your's), IMHO calling is not an option:

- Calling leaves just $2.49 in your stack, and builds the pot to $4.38.

- If the villain bets again, a mere 56% pot bet puts you all in.

- The villain's aggression OTF means you can all but BANK on another bet OTT.

- If you FOLD to a bet if/when the turn blanks, you basically spewed off 25% of your stack to take a 19.2% "shot" (5.2 to 1 against) getting no where near the odds needed to do so.

- With only 56% pot bet left in your stack, you stand almost ZERO chance of getting any hand better than your A hi to fold (at least any hand which might raise OTF after your 3bet pre, when the villain is unknown) if you donk lead the river without improvement; this is probably true even if the villain checks back the turn.

All this means calling pretty much commits you to seeing the river, or you will end up spewing off an un-necessary 25% of your start stack. If you are going to see the river anyway, let's look at the option of shoving...

First...

Shoving over a villain raise OTF of $1.25 ($1.91 to go) gives the villain about 3 to 1 for a call (you'd be forcing him to call $2.49 for a chance to win $7.53). This means he is probably calling you pretty often after his previous actions, as he really only needs to win about 25% to break even on a call of your jam.

Next...

At the micro stakes I'd not really expect a villain to run a decent semi bluff very often. The mistakes there tend to be a lot more geared towards CALLING too often. As you have no info on this villain, his aggression, and the "standard" for the level of the game, argues that he has value in his hand that he is unlikely to fold given 3 to 1 odds. This value is (almost) always ahead of your A high.

Next...

I can agree with Arty that if you shove and are called your chances to spike good by the river are on the order of 35% to 40%. This means you need to get between 1.85 to 1 and 1.5 to 1 on your money to shove if he calls 100% of the time.

(note: I'd STILL lean toward "discounting" your outs to somewhere around 8 to 8.33 instead of 9. I say this because a large part of the villain's action range here will include hands with at least 1 h in them. If you can put him on a h a good amount of the time, it is hard to factor your chances based on 9 "clean" h being left for you to hit.).

Finally...

Shoving $3.74 to possibly win $6.28 gives you about 1.68 to 1 if you are called. This puts you right in the middle of what you "need" to go ahead and shove over a raise of $1.25 by the villain OTF. Without any true clue as to which end of the price range you are (because of your lack of info), it can be sort of a toss up to shove.

You MIGHT be ok if he has more 1 pair + draws in his range, and if his range is stronger you might be -eV to jam. You just do not have info versus an unknown villian to judge.

To this I'd offer up another quote from Mike Caro:

"When in doubt, always consider one more piece of information."

IMHO:

When you sit at an on line table and LOSE a big pot in a close edge situation, you run the risk that you will see that opponent LEAVE before you get a chance to gain enough info to take your chips back. To me, the portability of on line play somewhat argues against taking every close edge situation possible when you do not know who, and what, you are facing.

Wouldn't it BURN you to find out you took a close edge spot versus an unknown ba-junky tilting spew-tard who immediately left the table after stacking you, because he FINALLY made good his daily losses?
If YOU are the spew-tard, then taking that close edge spot is probably the best chance you are gunna see, but how many of us would characterize ourselves as spew-tards? :-)

Others might argue "it doesn't matter, because if you do not win the close run thing vs this guy, it will all average out vs. someone else!"

I would counter that with saying this is true if I feel I hold an advantage over EVERYONE, in EVERY WAY, at the level I am playing. If I do hold such an advantage, then who my opponent is does not matter at all - I'll crush 'em all and get my close run losses back somewhere else. But if I think that highly of myself, I am probably excessively prideful...

In reality, there will be some players my particular "style" works well against, and some against whom it does not. Sure, we should all try to "mix things up", but if you consider "style" as being the sum of your PREFERRED poker "moves" and your particular LEAKS, then even if we seek to "mix it up" we will still have a "style" that works well versus some, and not so well versus others. I'd really hate to lose a big pot in a spot where I do not have a CLEAR "edge", if by being just a little bit more patient I could find a better spot!

PLUS...

Rake also plays a part. At the time you had to decide whether to shove, you were not any where near the max rake amount.

Stars' rake system includes a HIGH max rake relative to the typical BB size (like 30c or something at 1c/2c)at the micro stakes, but the rake % overall is low. This is contrasted with most live rake set ups where the max raked amount is pretty low (max of 5$ in Chicago, or 2.5BB at 1/2 NL), but the % taken until that number is hit is very HIGH (Stars' way does work out cheaper overall for players though). The method of rake in live games favors big pots (thus building huge pot in close edge spots), while on line rake structures tend to not favor them as strongly.

Since this IS a close edge spot, where you might be +eV or you might not be, it may be slightly better to be more conservative when max rake has not yet been hit. If the close edge decision came up when max rake had already been hit, then it might flip to favor TAKING the shot that you are +eV.

These are meta game thoughts at the end though, and while they might not be what you expect from a hand analysis forum response, they ARE considerations which will tend to effect your long range profitability...


Quote:
Originally Posted by Espada_Nu.4 View Post
if he shoves, do i call for the same reason as above?
If the villain shoves over your C bet of 66c, you are barely getting 1.5 to 1 to call the shove. I do not think you can reasonably say you are getting the 40% chance to win you'd need to break even in calling a shove here.

I would not go so far as to say it is IMPOSSIBLE for you to be ok in calling, but lacking info I would pass up my nut flush draw if an unknown villain shoved into me here.

Hope it helps.

-JDean
 

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