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10NL 6 Max AA Turn Line

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10NL 6 Max AA Turn Line - Sun Apr 07, 2013, 01:20 AM
(#1)
TheAwesomeNW's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 474
Villain's 28/10, AF 0.6 over 87 hands. BTN Stl: 21%(14), F3B: 0%(1), Flop FCB: 44%(9), Turn BVMCB IP: 100%(2)

Noted that he's a limper.



OTF we cbet for value. I could see Kx and Qx combos calling here once, particularly AK, KQ, KJ and QJ. And perhaps JT. SPR was <4, had planned to bet 3 streets all in my overpair.

Turn comes an ugly card which coordinates the board. Should I still proceed with my plan? Is bet-call, bet-fold, check-raise or check-fold the best line here?

As played, he makes the large bet which makes us committed. Felt like folding here
 
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Sun Apr 07, 2013, 04:25 AM
(#2)
GarethC23's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,273
Easy fold I think.

There are two main keys in this spot to me.

First this board intersects with the range of hands we would expect him to a) raise preflop b) call a three-bet with and c) call a flop bet with. Given his passive nature his preflop range is going to be tighter than a normal button range, which means his seeing this flop range is going to be tighter than normal as well.

Second point is that his AF is so low. He is the type of player to check back any one pair hand here, including one pair with a gutshot or one pair with an open ender. So that rules out all the hands we would like him to have when he bets. I have to conclude then that he has at the worst two pair and we aren't getting odds to continue versus his whole range, out of position, against such a big bet size, with a street to play that won't be easy. Unless we hit a T we won't know if we have the best hand and extracing value from KQ when we hit a J for instance will be impossible, since he should have KK, QQ, KJ, AT, etc in his turn betting range.

Tough fold to make but your opponent has been kind enough to tell you his hand is better than yours!
 
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Mon Apr 08, 2013, 11:58 PM
(#3)
TheAwesomeNW's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 474
Thanks Gareth! I couldn't find the Fold BTN again... He showed up with JJ here. Arghh rookie mistake thinking he's betting worse
 

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