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2nl 6max zoom-Are They Showing A FullHouse Often?

2nl 6max zoom-Are They Showing A FullHouse Often? - Sun Apr 07, 2013, 10:55 AM
Nashy1996's Avatar
Since: Dec 2011
Posts: 164
Sorry, this hand was deleted by its owner

hi everyone,

In this hand the villian had stats of 17/14 and a 3bet% of 23 over 37 hands.
I make my trips and proceed to cbet,the sb folds and the bb calls.
Nothing really changes on the turn and i bet the turn for value and the bb check raises.
i decided to just call to keep probably at this stage worse queens in his range rather than shoving the rest in.On the river the villian quickly made a large bet and i was concerned, its quite possible they could have made a fullhouse here,but i asked myself weather there still could be some worse queens in there range and think there could be but they could certainly show a fullhouse alot too.

What do you guys think?
Sun Apr 07, 2013, 06:20 PM
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,363
I just wrote one of my typical "wall of text" replies to this, but lost it when I refreshed the page by mistake.
So I'll just rewrite in note form if that's OK.

Villain has solid TAG stats in this small sample. The very high 3-bet % probably indicates he 3-bets as a blind defence often, so it's unlikely he just flats here with AQ or KQ, although I guess he sometimes does so with KQs.
The big stack coupled with the stats would indicate a solid value-bettor, not a fish on a heater, and I think his pre-flop call in the BB indicates he was going set-mining.

Hands like TT and 99 are often peeling on the flop, because he doesn't give you credit for a queen. But when you bet the turn, you've pretty much defined your hand as trips, because it would be quite spewy to barrel with worse once you've been called on the flop.
If villain is correctly putting you on a queen on the turn, his check-raise is for pure value. While it's possible he does it with KQs, it would be pretty thin, as that's only beating QJ and QT. I think he'll show up with 66 or 88 here very often indeed. I can't see this guy getting out of line with a turned flush draw, particularly because you have the As.
Even if we include AQ and KQ in his value-raising range, you're in bad shape.

Board: Qh6sQc8s
Equity Win Tie
Hero 31.39% 15.72% 15.67% { AsQd }
Vill 68.61% 52.95% 15.67% { 88, 66, AQs, KQs, AQo }

Notice that although you have 31% equity, you'll only win outright 15.7% of the time.

Folding trips with an ace kicker is hard, but against this particular villain, with this particular action, I think it's the correct play.

Hope this helps.

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