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2nl max zoom-What Am I Ahead Of?

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2nl max zoom-What Am I Ahead Of? - Sun Apr 07, 2013, 11:17 AM
(#1)
Nashy1996's Avatar
Since: Dec 2011
Posts: 164
Sorry, this hand was deleted by its owner

Hi Everyone,

The villian in the cutoff had stats of 34/19 3bet%0 and had raised flop cbets 2/8 occasions over 101 hands.

I 3bet for value and to try to get heads up against the player in the cutoff,and i did.
The stack to pot ratio was probably just low enough to stack off with a one pair hand,just under 6.

I lead out on the flop and they raise me,i decided to call to try and keep some worse hands in there range and rethink on the turn,i still believe i can have the best hand.As a side note i later considered that maybe a check could have been a better line on the flop.

The turn came down and i decided to check to the villian to see there action and have them bet wider,and they bet confidently.
To be honest i didnt feel that comfortable stacking off this deep with one pair and was put in a tough spot.
I figured that the only hand im probably beating here is JJ,i couldnt really come up with something he's playing like this thats worse.

Felt uneasy here but should i still gets stacks in?

Thanks
 
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Mon Apr 08, 2013, 08:17 PM
(#2)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,503
Against a reasonably good player, I think you are correct in recognising that JJ is the only likely hand you're beating. I'd remove KK and AA from his range, unless you know he's capable of flatting with those. So if he has a made hand, it's probably JJ, a set, or possibly ATs.

This is a tough one I think. On the surface, TT would seem to be his most likely holding, but there are more combos of JJ and AT in his range.
It all depends on whether this villain calls 3-bets with hands like AT and small pairs. He's loose pre-flop, but your post-flop stats for him aren't stastically significant. (In a large sample, "raise flop %" is a very handy stat to look at).

Do you happen to know his "fold to 3-bet" or "call 3-bet" numbers, or even his overall post flop AF?

I think I'd probably get my stack in here. Villain isn't nitty enough to only do this with hands that have you crushed. You're certainly not way ahead of his range, but I'd feel fairly confident that this guy will overvalue TPTK and JJ in this spot.


Bracelet Winner
 
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Tue Apr 09, 2013, 04:53 AM
(#3)
Nashy1996's Avatar
Since: Dec 2011
Posts: 164
I have their overall AF which is 3.83 and the Aggression freq which is 60.53,also their fold to 3bet% is 66.67 2/3.
 
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Tue Apr 09, 2013, 07:56 AM
(#4)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,503
With those post-flop stats, I'm more confident about stacking off. The "fold to 3-bet" sample is too small to be significant, but the aggression numbers are much higher than an average 2NL would have. They represent a player that won't just overvalue TPTK; he'll also raise all his draws and sometimes complete air.
More standard numbers for a winning player would be an AF of 2-3.5 and an Agg% of 40% or less. The numbers are especially high for a loose player like this. Since he's playing 34% of hands (a weak range), then he's not going to have a super-strong hand post-flop very often, so why would he be betting and raising so often? Answer: Because he's overvaluing his hand and (semi-)bluffing quite often.


Bracelet Winner

Last edited by ArtySmokesPS; Tue Apr 09, 2013 at 07:59 AM..
 
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Wed Apr 10, 2013, 03:42 AM
(#5)
Nashy1996's Avatar
Since: Dec 2011
Posts: 164
Thanks heaps Arty thats really helpful and interesting stuff
 

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