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$3.50 fifty50, 3bet shove 33

$3.50 fifty50, 3bet shove 33 - Mon Apr 08, 2013, 04:26 PM
Espada_Nu.4's Avatar
Since: May 2012
Posts: 148
Sorry, this hand was deleted by its owner

VPIP/PFR 22/19

im left with almost 10BB and i have 33 in SB. since this guy is somewhat loose, and i need chips, i decide to come over the top. the only problem is that i havent seen him fold to 3bets, but if he decides to call with something like AQ,AK i will be flipping, which i dont mind
is it ok to be flipping for your tournament life if you are left with 10BB and less?
since i havent seen him fold to 3bets yet, would it be better to 3bet shove with blockers?
Wed Apr 10, 2013, 11:37 AM
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,824
Hi Espada_Nu.4!

In these tourneys, I need to do whatever I possibly can to get to a top 5 chip stack, since 5 of 10 get ITM. I also want to accumulate chips, as each chip is worth extra $$ at the end of the tourney.

Since I'm outside the top 5, I'm looking for a +EV spot to try to pick up some chips. Without knowing if the opp will fold to a 3-bet at all (with them playing 22% of hands, I think they will have a given % that they will fold), I'm going to come over the top here and take a race.

Against their range, I've got about 44% equity from pokerstove. I've also got 46% pot equity if they call. However, I think they're going to fold here a good % of the time. With them playing 19% of hands, they're probably going to fold 1/2 or even more of their hands here (or at least they should). These folds will make taking most likely a flip, a +EV play. Also, if they do call and lose, they're not only losing their chip position, but since each chip is worth cash in the end, they're losing a good bit of cash value too.
Yes, sometimes the opp may wake up with an overpair, but in the chip position I'm in, I'm willing to go with it, as I need to accumulate chips.

If I had a top 5 chip position, then my thinking here would change and I'd pass on taking the flip, but since I'm not in the top 5 and need chips... I'll shove here.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


6 Time Bracelet Winner

Wed Apr 10, 2013, 12:48 PM
mimesis.is's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 74
Fold equity is what's making this a profitable play (although a certain book I'm reading tells me that this is an 'unexploitable restealing spot' given the opponents estimated range so make of that what you will). If you were the one deciding to call a shove with 33 it would be a fold but this is obviously totally different so nh.

On a side note props for finding and posting so many marginal spots! I'm having a hard time working out how best to play a lot of hands that you put up for evaluation so it's been great to learn from them.

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